NFL Opening Line Report: Week 1
By STEPHEN NOVER -
Those already betting NFL Week 1 totals have been amazingly consistent.
There have been eight ‘over/under’ line adjustments going into Monday and all have been on the ‘under.’
Surprised? Oddsmakers aren’t.
“We consciously made them (totals) lower because we know they’re going to bet them ‘under,’” said Mike Seba, a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants. “Early in the year defenses are usually ahead of the offenses.”
That’s the way bettors see it. They also know there are at least seven new NFL starting quarterbacks.
The biggest ‘over/under’ moves so far have been on Cincinnati-Baltimore, going from 42½ to 39 and Detroit-Atlanta dropping from 44 to 41. Both Baltimore and Atlanta could be starting rookie quarterbacks.
Injuries and quarterbacks being rusty also are factors in the early ‘under’ play.
The totals in the Kansas City-New England, Chicago-Indianapolis and Minnesota-Green Bay matchups have all dropped.
The Chiefs-Patriots ‘over/under’ opened 48 and currently is at 46. The Chiefs have a weak offense and are coached by “Mr. Boring” Herm Edwards. Meanwhile, New England’s Tom Brady didn’t play during preseason because of a foot injury. He could be rusty and out of sync.
The Bears-Colts total has dipped slightly from 44½ to 44. Kyle Orton is the Bears’ new starting quarterback, while Peyton Manning didn’t play during preseason recovering from a knee injury.
The Vikings-Packers ‘over/under’ opened 39 and currently is down to 38½. Tarvaris Jackson didn’t see action in Minnesota’s final preseason game because of a knee sprain. Aaron Rodgers is slated to make his starting quarterback debut for Green Bay. The total could continue to drop with news that Vikings star offensive left tackle Bryant McKinnie is suspended.
Some of these other totals, though, could get bet up during the final hours before kickoff.
“They’ll play ‘under’ early in the week and then toward the end of the week they’ll buy back on the ‘over,’” Seba said of a betting strategy used by scalpers and those looking to middle by winning both sides of a wager.
Kansas City currently is the only double-digit ‘dog. LVSC opened the Chiefs plus 14½ to the Patriots. New England has shot up to minus 16½ with Brady expected to play.
“It’s going to close 17,” Seba said.
Look for San Diego to possibly close as a double-digit favorite, too. The Chargers currently are minus 9 ½ hosting Carolina. They were up to 10 at one prominent book.
Carolina coach John Fox is perhaps the best ‘dog coach in the league with a 30-15-1 against the spread mark when getting points. Shawne Merriman and Antonio Gates aren’t 100 percent for San Diego, while center Nick Hardwick is out and linebacker Stephen Cooper is suspended.
“Carolina is still under the radar screen,” Seba said. “They are healthier this season.”
Perhaps the Colts could close at 10 or more, opening their new stadium with Manning expected to start. Their opponent, the Bears, appear dreadful on offense.
If Manning unexpectedly has a setback and can’t go, this line would shoot all the way down to minus 3 ½, according to Seba.
“Manning’s worth at least a touchdown in this case,” Seba said.
Expect bookmakers to shade Indianapolis, New England and San Diego high all season. Because of its respective superstars – Manning, Brady and LaDainian Tomlinson – these powerhouses have become huge public teams. They are highly-popular with those liking to parlay.
The Patriots and Colts were a combined 1-8 straight-up in preseason. It remains to be seen how much these two juggernauts can turn it up now that preseason finally has ended and their superstar quarterbacks take the field for the first time.