LET'S RANK 'EM ENTERING DECEMBER!
As we enter December, and the playoff picture begins to sort itself out, it's time to check out our latest NFL rankings.
1) New England (11-0)...Bill Belichick’s boys are still at the top of the heap, and the ‘72 Dolphins remain in their crosshairs. But the most interesting question of the week is if Philadelphia really produced the road map necessary to beat the Patriots last Sunday night. Perhaps so, but matchups have a lot to do with things, and the Birds apparently had the defensive personnel and strategy to give Tom Brady some problems. But not every team could do what Philadelphia did; something tells us the Bills could play the Patriots 50 times and lose by four TDs or more on each occasion. More legitimate concerns, however, rest with a defense that lacks foot speed (especially at the LB spots), and whether this most-finesse of offenses is built for January conditions. If the Patriots run into weather anything similar to what we saw in Pittsburgh on Monday night, they might be in trouble.
2) Indianapolis (9-2)...Although the Colts have realistically surrendered home-field edge in the postseason to New England, it’s amazing how many people around the league believe that Indy has a great shot at the Pats if they meet again, even in Foxborough. Come playoff time, Marvin Harrison should be somewhat healthy, a dimension for Peyton Manning’s offense that cannot be ignored. And while there is nothing positive to be gained from Dwight Freeney’s season-ending injury on the defensive side, Freeney was not having quite the impact he had in previous seasons. The Colts know they can beat the Patriots, in Foxborough or anywhere else. Let’s see if they get another chance.
3) Dallas (10-1)...We’ll find out Thursday night who the “big boys” really are in the NFC when the Cowboys host the Packers in a delicious battle of 10-1 teams. For the moment, we still give the slight nod to Dallas, based upon a more productive ground game. Moreover, Cowboy fans have to be pleased that QB Tony Romo (right) as of yet has shown no signs of slumping as he did late last season. And Terrell Owens hasn’t been a distraction all season. But the best move of all might have been Jerry Jones’ decision to hire Wade Phillips as head coach. Phillips’ low-key approach has worked on all levels, not only connecting with the veterans on the team who appreciate being treated like adults, but not competing for media attention with Jones, who seems a lot more comfortable with Phillips around than he was with boorish Bill Parcells.
4) Green Bay (10-1)...It took us a while to admit as much, but the Packers are for real and have a shot at reaching the Super Bowl. Which would be quite an accomplishment for Brett Favre, ten years after his last Super Bowl (has a QB ever reached Super Bowls with that sort of gap between visits?). Favre’s leadership is invaluable, but a major development for the Pack has been the emergence of ex-Domer RB Ryan Grant as a viable infantry diversion. With the addition of a decent ground attack, Green Bay became downight menacing. But it is an underrated defense that looks as if it will keep the Pack in the hunt deep into the playoffs.
5) Pittsburgh (8-3)...We’re not as convinced the Steelers belong this high as we were the last time we posted the rankings. Although the Men of Steel continue to win at Heinz Field, they have dropped three games on the road vs. sub-.500 squads (Arizona, Denver, and an inexplicable loss at the Meadowlands vs. the Jets). If they can’t handle the Jets on the road, how are they going to fare if they have to travel to the RCA Dome or Gillette Stadium in the postseason?
6) Jacksonville (8-3)...After the Dallas-Green Bay showdown Thursday night, this week’s most interesting game pits the Jags and Colts in a rematch of a mid-October Monday night game won by Indy, 29-7. Remember, however, that the Jags lost QB David Garrard to an ankle injury that night, robbing them of a chance at victory, but the fact the team didn’t collapse in subsequent weeks with ex-Florida A&M Rattler Quinn Gray at QB is a clear indicator that Jax is going to be a factor in the AFC into January. Garrard (left, last Sunday vs. Buffalo) returned a few weeks ago, and even Jack Del Rio couldn’t have imagined that his QB would be entering December without having thrown an interception. There hasn’t been such a mistake-free season from a QB since Bart Starr tossed only 3 picks for the Packers in 1966. The Jags can run the ball and (if healthy) play some intimidating defense (they’ve held 8 of 11 foes to 18 points or fewer), a combo that could make them a force to be reckoned with in the postseason.
7) Cleveland (7-4)...Are the Browns really this good? We’ll find out in the next few weeks, but they do seem to fit the profile of many darkhorse contenders in recent seasons, seemingly appearing out of the blue, gaining momentum as the wins pile up, inexplicable as it all seems. Although Romeo Crennel’s defense has been a bit more leaky than he would like, Cleveland is still winning because the offense has been such a revelation behind unheralded QB Derek Anderson, the ex-Oregon State Beaver who has silenced any mention of Brady Quinn getting his shot as a rookie. With a primo cast of receiving targets (and Braylon Edwards staying healthy for once), and Jamal Lewis reinvigorated by his new surroundings, Cleveland continues to hang on Pittsburgh’s tail in the AFC North and stay in the middle of the wild card chase. A team with this sort of mojo is one to keep an eye on.
8) Seattle...We have to say that the quality begins to drop in the rankings right about here, as even without the presence of the Patriots, we can’t conceive of any of the teams from this point down in the rankings having any shot at winning the Super Bowl, and only slightly better chances of getting that far. The Seahawks, who have opened up some daylight in the woeful NFC West, might be the best of that lot. And their best player might now by DE Patrick Kerney (right), who is making big plays week after week. But with Shaun Alexander banged up, we don’t think Matt Hasselbeck (even with his receivers getting healthier) can lead this team too deep in the postseason.
9) San Diego (6-5)...We are a bit reluctant to put the Chargers this high, simply because the team has blown so hot-and-cold for Norv Turner this season. But they still have enough firepower to handle the lesser teams on their schedule, which at this stage might be enough to qualify them for the playoffs from the weak, weak AFC West, which alone puts them a leg up on most other teams. Still, from what we’ve seen in '07, this team is no Super Bowl threat, not with Philip Rivers mysteriously regressing at QB, the wideout situation still mediocre, and the defense not making as many plays under new d.c. Ted Cottrell as it did last season under Wade Phillips’ aggressive scheming. And Norv has done nothing to convince us that GM A.J. Smith made anything but a blunder in naming him to succeed Marty Schottenheimer, who has miraculously become more popular in “retirement” (at least in San Diego) than Bill Clinton.
10) NY Giants (7-4)...Playing in the Big Apple, not to mention being Peyton Manning’s little brother, means that Eli Manning’s shortcomings are always going to be magnified a lot more than if he was QB in Kansas City and was named, say, Brodie Croyle. Nonetheless, Eli’s late-season fades the past few seasons are not fictional, and it only makes sense to wonder if he is about to embark upon the same path after last week’s 4-interception, 3 returned for TDs meltdown vs. the Vikings. The recurring injuries to RB Brandon Jacobs (who has been a revelation when healthy) could soon prove problematic, as he has been more effective than Reuben Droughs. Still, the Giants are not quite as dynamic on the offensive end now that Tiki Barber is yukking it up with Al Roker and Natalie Morales on the Today Show instead of carrying the ball for the G-Men, especially if Jacobs can’t stay healthy. Nothing wrong with Steve Spagnuolo’s defense and the juiced up New York pass rush, but it’s justifiable to wonder just how far Eli can take this team.
11) Tampa Bay (7-4)...We’re really not sure the Bucs, despite their record, are good enough for this ranking. But they are sitting pretty in the weak NFC South at 7-4, and look a very good bet to make the postseason, which is more than most of the teams in the league can say. Aside from the injuries that thinned their RB ranks, the Bucs have stayed relatively healthy, and the defense proved it could make plays in the clutch last weekend (picks by Ronde Barber & Brian Kelly in particular) to repel the Skins in the late going. Jeff Garcia is good enough to get the team into the playoffs, but at the moment we’re hardly convinced the Bucs are going to do anything once they get there.
12) Denver (5-6)...There’s a good chance that if the Broncos miss the playoffs, they’ll look back at last weekend’s bitter loss at Chicago as the reason why. It was a game Denver never should have lost, but perhaps deserved to because Mike Shanahan kept kicking the ball to Devin Hester, who burned the Broncos twice on kick return TDs. Add in a blocked punt to set up a Bears TD to get Chicago back into the game in the 4th quarter, and it’s the sort of special teams nightmare that can wreck a season. Still, the offense is showing signs of coming into its own, with QB Jay Cutler improving by the week, and WR Brandon Marshall blossoming into one of the game’s best young wideouts. Rod Smith’s absence is not really a factor, but injuries on the defensive side to DEs Ebenezer Ekuban & Jarvis Moss are negatives, and neither Ian Gold nor Nate Webster has paired as effectively with MLB D.J. Williams as Al Wilson did a year ago. The future looks bright in Denver, but we’re not sure it will illuminate enough for a ticket to the playoffs in ‘07.
13) Houston (5-6)...Last week’s loss at Cleveland was a crippling blow to the Texans’ wild card hopes, but we still think this might be a team to be reckoned with down the stretch. With Matt Schaub healthy again at QB and WR Andre Johnson back in the lineup, the “O” at least has a menacing look once more, and the “D” has mostly held its own this season. The Texans might have been reduced to a role of spoiler for the final month of the season, but we suspect they’ll play the role to the hilt.
14) Philadelphia (5-6)...Hmmm. Last season, the Eagles didn’t really take flight until Donovan McNabb went down with an injury in November, and Jeff Garcia whipped the team into the playoffs. Last week, with McNabb out again, the Eagles looked like a legit playoff contender with backup A.J. Feeley (right) at QB. A pattern, or just a coincidence? Whatever, it shows that the Eagles can still be a problem for the top contenders on the right day. And all it might take is one hot streak like the one Garcia engineered a year ago for the Birds to get back into the playoffs as a wild card. The question is if they have a better chance to do it with McNabb at the controls...or with Feeley?
15) Chicago (5-6)...Just when we’re about to write the Bears’ epitaph, they make a dramatic escape from the abyss and steal one from the Broncos, keeping their wild card hopes alive. No, it’s not the same team it was a year ago; the defense misses S Mike Brown (injured) & DT Tank Johnson (released), and Lovie Smith probably wished he still had Thomas Jones in the backfield even before Cedric Benson’s season-ending injury (the Bears won’t suffer much letdown with “the other” Adrian Peterson running the ball). And the team has shown great courage with its wins not only vs. Denver, but also rallying late at Green Bay and Philadelphia earlier in the season. Still, the QB situation is just as erratic as ever, and with Rex Grossman & Brian Griese both blowing hot and cold, the Bears’ upside is not what it was a year ago.
16) Cincinnati (4-7)...This is the highest we’ve had the Bengals all season. And even though it might be too late to make a serious run at the playoffs, we suggest keeping an eye on Cincy down the stretch, especially since WR Chris Henry has returned from suspension. With Chad Johnson back in gear, and T.J. Houshmandzadeh still the best-kept WR secret in the league, and everyone relatively healthy again, the attack is dangerous enough to compensate for a disappointing defense, as the Titans found out last week. A fast finish might also be necessary for HC Marvin Lewis to save his job.
17) Minnesota (5-6)...Where would the Vikings be if they had a QB? They’re on the periphery of the NFC wild card chase as it is despite the subpar combo of Tarvaris Jackson and Brooks Bollinger manning the QB post, which is quite a testament to the rest of the team. The defense is still the hardest in the league to run against, and wrecked Eli Manning last week. And even without rookie sensation Adrian Peterson the last few weeks, the offense hasn’t missed much of a beat with capable Chester Taylor toting the football. Peterson is due back soon, and the Vikes are only one game out of the last NFC wild card spot. Can they really get there with Jackson or Bollinger at QB?
18) Detroit (6-5)...A few weeks ago, the Lions were breathing down the Packers’ necks and sitting pretty in the NFC wild card chase. Now, they’re flailing, with a running game that has been gaining inches per carry in some recent games, and a defense starting to spring some leaks. Jon Kitna’s guarantee of 10 wins, which looked like a safe bet not long ago, is starting to look more remote, and there are reportedly some internal grumblings regarding o.c. Mike Martz (WR Roy Williams didn’t sound too pleased after the Thanksgiving loss to the Packers). Teams fade after quick starts each season, and indicators are suddenly not good at Ford Field.
19) Tennessee (6-5)...This ranking is based largely upon current form, of which the Titans haven’t had much lately. Three straight losses, each one more ugly than the last, have cast doubts upon Tennessee as a legit playoff contender. The defense has collapsed the past few weeks, and it might not be a coincidence that DT Albert Haynesworth has been out of action during that stretch. Can Haynesworth really be that important to the stop unit? On the other side of the ball, an alarming case of “dropsies” by Vince Young’s receivers have ground the offense to a halt, too often turning the attack into its "all-(PK) Bironas" mode. There’s still time to turn things around, but based on recent performances, we wouldn’t count on it.
20) New Orleans (5-6)...The Saints continue to tease, rallying from an 0-4 start to level themselves at 4-4, only to drop successive games against the Rams (St. Louis’ first win of the season) and Texans before rebounding in style last week at Carolina. Will the real Saints please stand up? Well, maybe those have been the real Saints we’ve been seeing all season, erratic, lacking playmakers on the defensive side to make momentum-changing plays, and missing Deuce McAllister a lot more than many envisioned on the offensive side. And a few are starting to wonder if Reggie Bush (right) is getting a bit too distracted by his commerical endorsements.
21) Washington (5-6)...There is nothing much to say about the Redskins in the wake of the Sean Taylor tragedy. Does the remainder of the season really mean much in light of these developments? It was one thing losing their best defensive player, and glue in the secondary, to injury a few weeks ago. But dealing with his murder is something altogether different.
22) Arizona (5-6)...Just when the Cardinals look as if they’re going to make a run in the NFC West, they blow another game to the 49ers (their second loss to San Francisco this season). Can a team that loses twice to the 49ers make the playoffs? Does it deserve to make the playoffs? As for the latter, probably not, but the NFC is soft enough this season that the Cards still have a chance. Watch Larry Fitzgerald, maybe the hottest receiver in the league, and Kurt Warner, playing through real pain with his left (non-throwing) elbow and on course for comeback player of the year despite his grievous error in overtime that cost the Cards last week vs. the 49ers. But until further notice, it looks as if the Bidwill Curse lives on.
23) Buffalo (5-6)...Coach Dick Jauron (left) has really made lemonade out of lemons in Buffalo, but we’re not sure how much more he can squeeze from the Bills. After all, the team has cracked the 20-point barrier only twice this season, and when rookie RB Marshawn Lynch finally began to flash his stuff, he went down with an ankle injury. Rookie Trent Edwards has been given back the QB job by Jauron over J.P. Losman, but is that really going to provide the necessary spark in December? The Bills play hard enough for Jauron that we don’t see them slipping into a freefall, but we’d watch closely for further signs of erosion.
24) Kansas City (4-7)...The Chiefs don’t have a QB (unless, in a moment of weakness, you count Brodie Croyle), Larry Johnson is hurting, and Priest Holmes has retired. Not good news for the offense, we’d say. So no matter how much scheming Herm Edwards is able to do with his defense, the Chiefs are fighting with one hand tied behind their back because of their limp attack. There’s one last chance to get back in the AFC West race this week at home against the Chargers (who the Chiefs beat in September), but after losing at Arrowhead to both the Broncos and Raiders, it will take quite an improvement to turn the momentum around. At least rookies such as WR Dwayne Bowe & RB Kolby Smith have flashed considerable potential.
25) Baltimore (4-7)...Remember when we were talking about the Ravens as a legit playoff contender? If that seems a while ago, it was. Entering December, we can confirm that Baltimore is past its sell-by date, and the grand plans of Ozzie Newsome and Brian Billick to hold the core of the team together for one more run at the big prize is turning out to be a severe miscalculation. Although nagged by injuries, Steve McNair’s days as a primo QB are over, and since Kyle Boller has never proven to be the answer, the Ravens are a true rudderless ship these days. The schedule doesn’t ease up, either, and there’s a chance the Raves could even lose out. For good measure, Baltimore has also covered the pointspread just once all season. As for Billick, he’s officially on watch.
26) St. Louis (2-9)...At least the Rams aren’t the wretched team they were a month ago, when they looked as good a bet as the Dolphins to challenge 1976 Tampa Bay’s all-time losing mark (0-14). But the team is still snakebit, conspiring ways to blow games like it did last Sunday vs. Seattle, when the “O” couldn’t punch in the winning TD from inside the 5-yard line in the closing moments. No matter, Gus Frerotte showed more in relief of Marc Bulger (KO’d by a concussion) than most backups QBs in the league, Steven Jackson (right) is back in the lineup, and the OL, while ravaged by injuries, has at least made adjustments as the season has progressed. St. Louis still isn’t much, but at least playing the Rams isn’t a gimme like it was the first half of the campaign.
27) Oakland (3-8)...The jury is still very much out on young Lane Kiffin as a head coach. Indeed, if Kiffin was hired because of the expertise he displayed as Southern Cal’s offensive coordinator the past two years, Al Davis has missed the mark. (Hint: Kiffin was merely trying his best to mimic what Norm Chow had done with the Trojans previously). But Kiffin hasn’t exactly been playing with a full deck of cards in Oakland, with QBs such as Daunte Culpepper and Josh McCown having been pulled off the scrap heap, and the roster lacking enough playmakers. The defense continues to play representative football, however, and the answer to the offense’s woes might be on the roster in the form of rookie QB JaMarcus Russell. And speaking of Russell, the only thing of much interest in Oakland the rest of the season is when JaMarcus gets his shot at QB, which we say comes in mid-December.
28) NY Jets (2-9)...The Jets showed a pulse, albeit briefly, in their home win over the Steelers two weeks ago. That coincided with a switch to 2nd-year, ex-Oregon QB Kellen Clemens, a better alternative these days than a beaten-up Chad Pennington, whose days in Jetland (as well as a featured NFL QB) appear to be numbered. Clemens’ presence in the lineup is more of an audition for the future starting QB job, and whether the Jets are going to have to look for another QB with a high draft pick instead of focusing upon other areas (such as the defensive front 7 and OL) in the early rounds next April. No one is calling Eric Mangini “Man-Genius” these days, and there’s word he has lost the respect of many of the veterans. The clubhouse is glum, and the losses keep piling up, and it seems hard to imagine that this was a playoff team last season. The Jets are merely latest example of the fine line many teams walk between success and failure in te NFL.
29) San Francisco (3-8)...In a season full of surprises, perhaps the most-shocking development was San Francisco’s 37-point explosion last week at Arizona, which broke the 49ers’ 8-game losing streak. Surprising because SF had averaged just 9 points in those 8 defeats, as the offense had shown about as much spunk as a turtle in the process (the defense recorded 2 of those TDs against the Cards, but let’s not get too picky here). A couple of tweaks might at least get the attack functioning at low-watt levels, as veteran coach Ted Tollner was just brought back by Mike Nolan to help out embattled o.c. Jim Hostler and try to fine tune the attack, not to mention mentoring the QBs (more on that in a moment). But RB Frank Gore and WR Arnaz Battle did make some big plays in the desert, and the defense remains combative, with Ole Miss rookie LB Patrick Willis continuing to impress (did you see him run down Sean Morey on that 62-yard pass play in overtime, at left?). As for the QB situation, Trent Dilfer’s 256-yard passing effort vs. Arizona should keep him in the starting lineup, and he gives the 49ers the best chance to win the rest of the way, which Nolan can’t ignore. That's because his job appears on the line, as are the long-term prospects of Alex Smith, whose relationship with Nolan seems to have deteriorated to the point where he is at least out of the immediate picture, and not just because he has been suffering with shoulder problems. We hear the once close relationship he had with Nolan appears to be temporarily fractured, which is not a good sign.
30) Atlanta (3-8)...Falcons fans are wondering if they might wake up one morning like Victoria Principal once did on the Dallas TV show and find that the nightmare of this depressing season will prove just a bad dream. Unfortunately, it’s real, as things started off badly with Michael Vick’s suspension, and have gotten progressively worse. Without the player around whom the team was built in recent years, Atlanta has been painful to watch in ‘07 with either Joey Harrington or Byron Leftwich at the controls, and now there’s talk that HC Bobby Petrino, who sure didn’t bargain for a Vick-less team when he took the job last January, might be looking to move back into the college ranks. The midseason release of DT Grady Jackson ruffled the clubhosue as well. Still, this team is going nowhere until it sorts out its QB woes, but it’s worth noting that it has somehow managed to cover four straight road games as it flies far, far under the radar.
31) Carolina (4-7)...How bad are things in Charlotte when the home crowd starts to chant “We want Moore” (that’s undrafted Matt Moore) at QB? Pretty bad, but considering the alternatives are gun-shy David Carr and old, battered Vinny Testaverde in the wake of Jake Delhomme’s absence, maybe the fans are right. Whatever, the Panthers are in free-fall with five straight losses effectively knocking them from playoff consideration, and there are plenty of questions beyond those at QB. Such as what has happened to the once-vaunted pass rush, and DE Julius Peppers? Doesn’t he like to play football any more? And what about the future of HC John Fox? Remember, Bill Cowher has settled not far away, in Raleigh. Be prepared to hear some of those Cowher-to-Panthers rumors between now and the end of the campaign.
32) Miami (0-11)...Perhaps the fact the Dolphins have had the misfortune of having to play in the games with the worst conditions (the soggy “London Bowl” against the Giants in late October, and last Monday’s quagmire in Pittsburgh) sums up their pratfall this season. The disintegration of this once-proud franchise continues, and we’re really starting to wonder if Miami is going to lose them all. Some veteran observers think it’s inevitable; local radio host and ESPN contributor Hank Goldberg predicted as much when we appeared on his show a few weeks ago. The switch to BYU rookie John Beck hasn’t ignited the offense, which hasn’t scored a point the last two weeks (okay, nobody could do much in the Pittsburgh rain and mud last Monday, but Ted Ginn Jr.’s punt return accounted for the Dolphins’ only score the previous week at Philadelphia). Now, RB Ricky Williams, who reappeared on the scene in Pittsburgh after having his suspension lifted, is out for the season with a chest injury, and it’s worth noting that the supposed cornerstones of the offense when the season began (QB Trent Green, RB Ronnie Brown, and WR Chris Chambers) were all out for the year with injury, or traded, by midseason. There’s still some hope in the fact that Miami has lost five games by 3 points, so maybe there's a win to be had out there in the last five weeks after all. But here is no indication Cam Cameron is going to be any more successful as an NFL coach than he was in college at Indiana.
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