Look to the OVER in the NFL

Look to the OVER in the NFL
September 28th, 2007

Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - Now that the first couple of weeks are over, it's time for NFL offenses to have their way with the defenses. It definitely showed in week three, with 11 overs to just five unders. In last year's third week, the overs took control with an 8-5-1 mark after only 11 overs in the first two weeks combined. That trend continued in week four with a 9-5 record.

This year, there were 13 overs in the first two weeks, just two more than in week three alone. Expect more of the same this weekend, even though the average of the totals are about two points higher than last week's games. I know specific matchups have a lot to do with how numbers are set, but it still is interesting that the oddsmakers placed the numbers at a higher level knowing full well that most games will be high-scoring.

Last week, the highest total (49) came from the Seattle-Cincinnati contest, a game that failed to go over the number. However, that was one of those rare instances where the total was solely based on the Bengals' previous game against the Browns.

Most people saw the 51-45 score in Cleveland to be a harbinger of things to come, but there's a big difference between the Seahawks defense and the Browns "D." Cleveland allowed 34 points in its opening week loss to Pittsburgh and gave up 26 more to Oakland last Sunday. The Seahawks, on the other hand, had allowed just 29 total points in their first two games. They were also the home team vs. Cincinnati, one main reason why they were able to hold the Bengals to only three touchdowns.

This week shows another huge total, and once again Cincinnati is involved. The Bengals are home to the Super Bowl-favored Patriots on Monday night football. As of Friday afternoon, the over/under is between 53 and 54.

Two things point to this particular one going over rather than under. First, New England is a much more explosive offensive team than Seattle. The Pats have put up 38 points three consecutive times, including one against the Chargers. Cincinnati is 29th in the league in scoring and total defense, allowing 32 points and 403 yards per game. There is no question that New England will score at least 35, if not 40 points in this game.

Second, even though the Patriots are leading the NFL in yards allowed at 207 per game, they have yet to be tested by a quality offensive opponent. All three teams they have played (Bills, Chargers and Jets) are ranked in the bottom six in the league in yards per game. On the other hand, the Bengals are tied for fourth in scoring at 31 per game and fifth in total yards with 393 per contest. In addition, they are home, which makes them even more dangerous.

FAVORITES STILL HAVING TROUBLE COVERING

Underdogs went 12-3-1 two weeks ago and still had the advantage, albeit a slight one, last week going 7-6-3. I had mentioned in the previous NFL column that teams favored by five points or more finished 2-8 ATS in week two. Last Sunday, five clubs were giving more than five points and only two covered, the Steelers and Patriots, who just happened to be the two teams favored by double digits.

There have been five road favorites of five points or more the last two weeks, and not surprisingly, all five have failed to cover. Shockingly, three of the five have lost outright - the Chargers were beaten last Sunday at Green Bay and two weeks ago the Bengals and Saints lost at Cleveland and Tampa Bay, respectively.

This week five more squads are giving five or more points - Dallas, San Diego and Indianapolis are all huge favorites at home, while Pittsburgh and New England are both strong road choices. I would advise not to blindly bet against these teams just based on recent trends, but it's worth keeping an eye on how they do for future reference.

WEEK FOUR PLAYS

The first wager this week comes from the Monday night game between the Patriots and Bengals. I have already stated the reasons why this is a major play so there's no need to go further in depth here.

Take the OVER.

Only one other game looks worthy of a play and it's Oakland at Miami. The Raiders have not won a road game since November of 2005, but if they are ever going to do so, this Sunday at Miami is it. The Dolphins are ranked 30th in the league against the run, allowing 166 per game. They let Thomas Jones sprint all over them last week, and even the Cowboys picked up 4.5 yards per carry against them in week two.

Oakland has gotten tremendous games from LaMont Jordan so far and the offensive line has been improving each week. Those are the two main reasons the Raiders are third in the NFL in rushing with 159 per game.

The Silver and Black has been an improving outfit since week one when the club fought back from a 17-0 deficit vs. Detroit to take a 21-20 lead less than 17 minutes later. Oakland eventually faded and lost 36-21, but this Raiders team looked a thousand times better than previous ones.

They split games the last two weeks with both contests going down to the wire, losing in overtime at Denver, 23-20, and winning by three vs. Cleveland after blocking a possible game tying field goal attempt on the last play of the game.

Miami has won only four of its last eight home games so there is virtually no home-field advantage to speak of. At this stage of the season, the Raiders are the better team and will show it this Sunday. Even if Oakland quarterback Josh McCown doesn't play due to a broken toe, the Raiders still have Daunte Culpepper, who will be anxious to start against his former team.

Dolphins linebacker Jerry Porter has guaranteed a Miami win. When the game is over, he'll be eating his words.

Take Oakland plus the points.