Mayweather-De La Hoya Betting Preview
by Robert Ferringo
In a time when the entire sport of professional boxing lay teetering on the precipice of Relevance, the whirlwind of attention that's being dedicated to Saturday's title fight between Floyd Mayweather and Oscar De La Hoya must be cherished by all of those who worship at this Altar of Violence. However, while there is a slight thrill and certain level of curious anticipation hovering over the beleaguered sport with The Fight just days away, that doesn't change my opinion that we're all being set up for a crushing knockout.
Mayweather and De La Hoya will be ready to rumble at 9 p.m. EST on May 5 at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas. At stake is a hodgepodge of inflated, alphabet soup "titles" that includes De La Hoya's WBC super welterweight crown and Mayweather's Ring Magazine world welterweight championship. Bodog has Mayweather listed as a -175 favorite and De La Hoya as a +145 underdog.
The hype around this singular boxing event has been somewhere between fable and propaganda. The tagline for the event, predictably trite and grandiose, is "The World Awaits". It's as if the build-up to this bout is comparable to the level of expectancy endured by the millions of religious zealots that patrol our streets waiting for the Second Coming of the Messiah.
While I will have a sporting interest in the fight, I'm not awaiting anything. Unless you count awaiting an acknowledgment from the general public that the Golden Era of Boxing is long dead and gone, and that it won't be coming back. I'm awaiting a confession from the promoters, trainers, ticket hustlers looking for $5K for seats and HBO executives charging $54.95 for this circus to admit to me that this is all an elaborate ruse; that it's nothing but a cheap hustle concocted to make people feel close to that bygone era for just a few bucks. I'm awaiting a concession that what we can really expect in this fight is a lot of dancing and hugging, a few flurries and maybe one or two decent rounds, a lot of jibber-jabber from the announcers, no knockouts, the obligatory scorecard controversy and the eventual aggrieved whining and rematch clamoring from the loser after the fight.
Clearly I am in the minority of people that are assuming another dud and letdown from a ballyhooed title fight. Bloggers and bobbleheads across the nation have been hyping the upcoming battle as some sort of watershed moment in the sport's history. Some have gleefully proclaimed that it feels, "just like old times". Over $19 million in live gate tickets have already been sold and the pay-per-view price tag is the largest in history. They graced the cover of Sports Illustrated and even Time writer Sean Gregory posited the question of whether or not this fight can "save boxing".
Well, I hate to spoil the ending for you but the answer is a resounding N-O.
The carefully commercialized facade of this event reeks of desperation and corporate slime. What do we really have here? We have two past-their-prime welterweights fighting for a few watered-down championship belts. These aren't classic heavyweights. These aren't iconic cultural figures. I mean, one guy goes by the name of "Pretty Boy" and the other moonlights as a damn pop princess. And you're trying to tell me that these are two boxing saviors ready to wage one of boxing's epic duels? Give me a break.
These guys are so noteworthy that WBC president Jose Sulaiman referred to Mayweather as "Jeff" during Wednesday's press conference. Do you think that anyone would have called Sonny Liston, "Sammy" or Muhammad Ali, "Mahatma"? Neither do I. And what is the big storyline again - them fighting for a place in History or fighting over someone's dad?
I enjoy boxing. I can appreciate a slugfest as much as any red-blooded American male. I love violence and crave a good bludgeoning. Will I be watching the fight? Sure, either at some bar or on the HBO replay next week. Will I have some coin on the bout? About as much as I'd play on a random Brewers-Pirates game on a Wednesday night. But are my nipples going to be as hard as Tommy Gallagher's while waiting for the opening bell? No chance.
And that's why I think it's important to express some levity at this time when the betting public seems to be getting Big Fight Fever. If people go into Saturday expecting a classic, all-time fight they'll be more inclined to wager more than they should just to feel like they're part of something magical.
"People see this as the biggest boxing match in a long time, and no one's sure when another one is going to happen, so people are betting accordingly," said Robert Walker, director of race and sportsbook operations at the MGM-Mirage in the Las Vegas Sun. "It's like the Super Bowl, where people bet more than they do on a regular weekly basis because they know it's the last game of the season."
Mayweather is an outstanding fighter. He is unblemished at 37-0 and worked diligently to add the necessary pounds to get into de la Hoya's class. He's won titles in four separate weight classes and deserves to be the favorite because of his speed, youth and aggressiveness. And for as much as I loathe Oscar and his lisp I have to admit that he has a solid chin and at 38-4 he's carved his name into boxing annals. But having two good fighters shouldn't be enough to earn Legendary Status in the eyes of the public. And just because a few sports fans recognize one or two of the names that shouldn't mean that we should automatically care.
But first and foremost, Mayweather and De La Hoya are businessmen. There may be a bit of a grudge between the two, but that's more a manufactured storyline from the promoters and HBO program directors than anything tangible. Think about it: do you really think that Oscar De La Hoya would roll out into the parking lot, drop the gloves, and throw blood-soaked punches with Mayweather for nothing more than pride and bragging rights? I don't think so. Not without makeup and camera lights catching the gleam off that Golden Boy smile.
"I want to make sure we give all the fans an incredible fight," said De La Hoya, who is doubling as the bout's promoter, in published reports. "I know I'm going to give all I can to give the fans a great fight."
Give the fans a great fight? Are you serious? I want to hear him say that he wants to rip Mayweather's head off. I want to hear him say that he's trying prove he's the best welterweight of all time. I want these guys to be angry and barbaric, wanting to inflict massive amounts of pain on one another as opposed to rub each other with $100 bills.
I apologize to all of the diehard fans out there pining for the "good ol' days". But like disco or segregation the sport's time has passed and it will never again be the mainstream force that it once was. There are a variety of reasons of why or how it's gotten to this point - which are too nebulous and expansive to cover in this space - but the bottom line is that these fights are novelty acts, like the quick-change artists that perform at halftime of an NBA game or the squirrel on water skis.
Does that mean we can't get excited about a big fight? Of course not. It's your god-given right to become as emotionally invested in something as much you damn well please. But as a professional risk manager I do think it's a good idea to limit your financial exposure on this event. If it's The Rush or The Action that you're looking for, just close your eyes and pretend that you're ring side in that far away land. A time when they were kings, and where The Fight actually mattered.
Fight Odds
Floyd Mayweather: -175
Oscar De La Hoya: +145
De La Hoya by a Decision: 14-5
De la Hoya by KO-TKO-DQ: 17-5
Draw: 13-1
Mayweather by Decision: 11-10
Mayweather by KO-TKO-DQ: 11-2
Over 11.5 rounds: -260
Under 11.5 rounds: +200
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