Minnesota +4 over MILWAUKEE
The Minnesota Timberwolves try to extend their winning streak over the Milwaukee Bucks to eight games tonight when they visit the Bradley Center, where they have won six in a row. Minnesota has won three straight and extended its franchise-record home winning streak to 14 games with a 99-97 victory over the Phoenix Suns yesterday. Meanwhile, Milwaukee snapped a four-game losing streak with a 93-90 victory over Portland in the finale of a four-game road trip on Saturday.
Gary Payton makes his home debut for the Bucks here which should make for an interesting, competitive game. It may be enough to get Milwaukee over the hump vs. the T-Wolves, but Minnesota will not be going down without a fight. On the road without rest off a home win, they are 11-4 ATS. Since the start of the 1999 season, they are 6-1 ATS as a road dog off a home win of 3 points or less, while Milwaukee is 1-5-1 ATS hosting such opponents. Over the past 7+ seasons of research, Minny is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the same situation when playing without rest, crushing the spread by 12 points a game on average. We also note that is single road games off home victories, the Timberwolves are 6-1 ATS.
Milwaukee is also off a close win, but they are just 1-7 ATS off a victory of 3 points or less. They are also just 2-7 ATS as a home favorite off a road win, 2-12 ATS off a spread win of 10+ points, losing to the number by 12 points on average, and another 2-12 ATS when playing with revenge vs. non-conference foes. After playing at Portland, the Bucks are 0-5 ATS over the past 5 years. Again, they may pull this one out, but if they do, we expect it to be by the slimmest of margins.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: MILWAUKEE 101 MINNESOTA 100