MLB Totals: The Real Story
by: Scott Rickenbach
The beauty of handicapping baseball totals is there is no clock involved in the games. Unlike three of the four major sports, there is no clock in baseball. Until that final out is recorded, you are absolutely "in the game". This is what makes playing overs especially appealing in baseball. You can have an over that is essentially "cashed" in the first inning because it's already over the total. You can also have a an over that looks bad or even "dead" through eight innings and then see it enjoy a "miracle" 9th inning with a ton of runs. Or you can even get the benefit of extra innings and see the road team go nuts to cash what looked like a losing ticket.
The point of the above is that there is a special "side" to MLB Totals thanks to the absence of a clock. That is what makes playing overs in baseball particularly appealing. That is also why that has become a "knack" of mine that has enjoyed great success through the years. However, there can still - of course - be a bad run with totals plays in MLB no matter how hard you're working and how "on" your work might be!
All handicappers turn in "dead tickets" sometimes and sometimes these can even come in the form of a "streak" of dead tickets! However, there can also be well handicapped plays that simply "burn" you in an unfortunate way! The key part of handicapping an over ticket is to find one where things mesh very, very well in terms of pitchers being set up to be rocked. Of course, it's best when both the starting pitcher and the bullpens are set up to get hit hard. However, sometimes bad breaks can still raise their ugly head!
In mid-May 2009 I am going through a rare, rough stretch with MLB totals. History says this will quickly get turned around for me but it's also important to evaluate what's been happening with some of the plays. Sometimes pitchers are getting hit hard but a lot of "lasers" are hit right at guys. Other times maybe rallies are constantly getting killed by a double play ball or a base running blunder or an unbelievable fielding play!
In this industry, handicappers are judged on wins and losses and of course that is the most important thing. However, a key point to remember, whether you're a capper or a bettor or both, is to understand why a play has won or lost. Sometimes a game plays out the way it should in terms of the outcome matching the way the game was played on the field. However, there are also times where a team crushes the ball (line drives, deep balls) but the contact simply turns into a "tough out" instead of the big hits they should be. Or another example is simply wasted opportunities.
Getting guys on base all game long only to see one wasted opportunity after another is a big cause of heartburn for an "over" player. For example, crushing the ball all inning but then smashing into a hard hit inning-ending double play with the bases loaded! Things like this tend to go in cycles and, when a capper is in a cycle like this, a key to look at is to analyze whether the quality output is still there in terms of the plays even though the financial returns are not presently there! If the success has been there in the past and the same systems are being used in the present and a number of the losses are truly "bad beats", then hang on! That's because a big push upward in the profit cycle is likely to be on the way!