Oakland @ Denver 9:00 PM EST
Oakland +6.5 over Denver (2.5 Units)
It would be very easy to look at Denver's 8-1 SU/7-2 ATS record against the Oakland Raiders and blindly take them in this contest, especially considering Oakland's recent struggles as of late.. however, we see many reasons why the Raiders can and will cover this number tonight, as Denver's supposed dominance of Oakland isn't quite what it seems...
While the Broncos have indeed pulled out wins in most of their games against Oakland, they have not come easy, as four of their recent wins have come from behind with a big fourth quarter drive by Brian Griese... and in their last three wins in Denver, the Broncos have not won by more than six points in any contest... eventually, Denver will have gone to the well one too many times, and when that comeback isn't there, they will falter and not just lose against the spread, but SU as well... considering Oakland is in a do or die situation in a divisional game, chances are that game might be tonight...
So far this year, we've seen two games which we can consider truly do or die situations... the Rams, at 0-5, needed a win to have any chance of salvaging their season in week six against the Raiders - the result in that game was a crushing victory that jump-started St. Louis on a four game winning streak... and yesterday, in a game that was essential to any hopes Indianapolis might have for the postseason, they came out and utterly dominated an Eagles team that looked like a Super Bowl contender... even the Chicago Bears came out like gangbusters in a must-win game against the Patriots yesterday, and were utterly dominating the Patriots until losing by a mere field goal (and covering the spread)... obviously, there is something to be said for a team with its back against the wall, and Oakland is a team in that situation right now, for a loss here would virtually ensure little chance of a playoff berth...
Denver has already experienced a similar game earlier this year, when they were dominated by a Baltimore team on Monday Night Football who had been playing terribly up until that point... while we don't necessarily expect the Raiders to dominate this game, we do believe that they will come out strong enough to cover this spread... Oakland is 17-7 ATS as a road dog of between 3 and 7 points, and a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight road games as a dog of greater than a field goal... against winning teams, Oakland has performed admirably, going 13-4 ATS, with one of those losses coming last week in overtime against the 49ers... and in November road games after another road contest, the Raiders have covered each of their last five contests...
Oakland may seem down and out, but this was a team that looked unstoppable during the first month of the season... so we know that they have the capability to get back on track... dismissing a veteran team like the Raiders now is definitely not recommended... this is especially true when you consider that, as great of a coach Mike Shanahan happens to be, the Broncos are a miserable 6-15 ATS when favored on Monday Night Football, and just 2-8 ATS after back-to-back SU wins...
The Raiders have long been the poster child for Monday Night Football, and in the 500th MNF game in history, it would make perfect sense for Oakland to rediscover the form that has made them one of the alltime best teams in Monday Night history... with their backs against the wall, we expect the Raiders to come out strong and finally come up big in the fourth quarter against Brian Griese and the Broncos, as Oakland holds on for the win and salvages a season on the brink...
FINAL PREDICTION: OAKLAND 23, DENVER 21
Golden State @ Memphis 8:05 PM EST
Memphis -2 over Golden State (4 Units)
The Golden State Warriors finish off a long road trip tonight against the only winless team in the NBA, and the timing couldn't be much better for the Grizzlies to finally notch their first win of the season... After all, the Warriors will be tired and weary in what will be their sixth straight road contest, and after losing each of their first five games on this trip, Golden State is just looking to regroup and figure out what went wrong after such a promising start to their season...
What went wrong, however, is what has doomed the Warriors to failure for so many years... namely, the team just does not know how to win on the road, as they are a horrifying 3-37 SU in their last 40 road games... a big reason for this failure is the fact that Golden State's defense has now allowed at least 100 points to 35 of those 40 opponents... it's tough to win when you can't stop the other team from placing the ball in the bucket...
Luckily for the Grizzlies, they have had amazing success when scoring 100 points or more, as they have covered 8 of their last 9 games when busting into triple digits... while there has been little reason for Memphis to be favored in their history, they have been exceptional in that role, going 8-3 ATS in their last eleven situations as a fav... and in this series between Memphis and Golden State, the favorite has been money in the bank, going 5-0 SU and ATS in the last five games between these teams, and 3-0 in Memphis... over the last three games of this series, the home team has been favored, making it three straight games the home team has won and covered...
Heading back to Golden State's road woes, the Warriors have lost each of their last six games both SU and ATS when installed as a road dog of less than five points... additionally, the Warriors have historically stumbled at the end of a lengthy road trip, as Golden State is just 2-11 ATS as a road dog in the last game of a road trip of three or more games... in other words, Golden State is exceptional at folding up the tent when they are not expected to win their last leg of a road trip... and with five straight road losses sending them into a tailspin, any deficit against the Grizzlies will likely result in the Warriors giving up yet again and accepting yet another road loss...
Golden State has had their difficulties on offense when visiting the Grizz, as they have averaged just 91.6 points in their last five visits to Memphis... considering their defensive deficiencies on the road, Golden State will need to score 100 points just to have a chance at the win.... and frankly, we don't see that happening in this contest... Memphis is hungry for their first win of the season and have their first real shot at pulling it off with the home crowd behind them tonight and a porous Golden State defense to work against... two final stats to digest are that Memphis is now 4-1-1 ATS at home after a SU road loss, and 6-2 ATS after a double-digit loss... therefore, look for the Grizzlies to get off the snide and pick up their first victory of the season, while the Warriors head back home to lick their wounds...
FINAL PREDICTION: MEMPHIS 102, GOLDEN STATE 95
Portland @ Dallas 8:35 PM EST
Dallas -8 over Portland (2.5 Units)
no analysis.
playing your whole card. it payed very well sunday. thanks for the plays
Tbone... sorry about the Memphis pick, but hope the others have been working out nicely for ya!
Continued best of luck to you from Buzz Word Sports!