Monday NBA Playoff Selection & Analysis
Opinion Selection
PHOENIX -5 over LA Clippers
After scorching the Lakers in Game 7, the Suns start another series with a team from Los Angeles Monday night when they host the Clippers. Phoenix got the series to a 7th game after storming back from a 3-1 deficit, and then blew Kobe Bryant and crew off the court.
Meanwhile, the semifinals are foreign territory to the “other†team from L.A. The Clippers beat Denver 4-1 in the first round, its first playoff series victory since 1976. This is only their fourth playoff appearance in the past 30 years.
Steve Nash is the sparkplug for the high-powered Phoenix offense and the steady force that kept the team focused, even after a devastating loss in Game 4 to put them 1 game away from elimination. “I think it's like any situation, you wouldn't feel good about being 3-1. But having lost games the way we lost them and then playing so well in the last three games, made me feel good about our chances.†Nash, who was named the NBA's Most Valuable Player for the second straight season on Sunday, sprained his right ankle in the first half but said he should be fine to play on Monday.
The Clippers can't be regarded lightly despite being in the conference semifinals for the first time in 30 years. Despite being seeded sixth, Los Angeles had homecourt advantage over Denver and easily took care of the Nuggets in five games, holding them to 87.4 points per contest, 13 below their season average. “It's still kind of surreal. I might not appreciate it until we start the second round,†said Clippers forward Elton Brand.
Going from the Nuggets, a team that was in the process of disintegrating, to Phoenix will be a major adjustment. We noted in our winning STAR SELECTION with Detroit on Sunday, that Cleveland would be in for a very rude awakening going from Wizards “defense†to the Pistons. Here, Los Angeles will face a similar task, except it will be a major upgrade on the offensive side that they will face.
Additionally, the Clippers have to worry about rust after being off for a week. This is not a veteran playoff team experienced with staying playoff-sharp during an extended break. Center Chris Kaman certainly didn't see as many positives to the long wait. "It sucks," Kaman said. "But for sure we know we're playing Monday, so it's good to know that. The problem is that you probably get a little rusty. The first game and the first couple minutes are probably going to be rough for us, but that's just how it goes." While most players wouldn’t be quite so blunt, Kaman is simply speaking his mind, which provides us insight into the team’s comfort and confidence levels as they approach this next round.
A letdown is also possible from Phoenix, with their heroics against the Lakers still fresh in their minds, which is why we can’t give this play a higher grade. The things in their favor are that Game 7 with the Lakers was at home, giving them adequate rest between games, and they are much more used to the postseason.
We look for the Suns to use the momentum from their series comeback to springboard them to a strong start here, especially in front of their fans. It’s not like Phoenix has gone on a sudden streak of great play, but rather returned to form. "I just think it's the heart and perseverance of our guys just to overcome Game 4, thinking that we had been slighted and thinking that, you know what, we tried to do the right thing and we kept getting hit," Coach Mike D'Antoni said. "And they had just had enough. Whether they turned it on or thought about it consciously, I don't know. But from that moment, we played the way we played all year." We don’t look for them to go back to the team the Lakers faced early in the series, although the Clippers team will give them a battle.
A closer look at the rest situation shows the Suns are in a better spot here. Los Angeles qualifies for a PRO INFO SPORTS NBA Playoff POWER SYSTEM which states: Play AGAINST a road underdog with 4+ days rest not off a SU win trailing by 7+ points after 1 quarter vs. an opponent with less than 4 days rest off a home game. This system has been perfect since at least 1999, which is as far back as we checked, going 8-0 SU & ATS. These road dogs lost by an average of 16 points and failed to cover by 10+ points a game on average.
Phoenix is active for several POWER SYSTEMS as well. One instructs to: Play ON a Round 2 Game 1 favorite off 3+ SU wins. This simple situation is a perfect 7-0 SU & ATS, with the favorites winning by more than 17 points and covering by more than 10 points a game on average. Another system advises to: Play ON a Game 1 favorite of 3+ points with less than 9 days rest off a SU & ATS win as a favorite of 3+ points. This scenario is a strong 15-0 SU & ATS, including Detroit’s pounding of Cleveland on Sunday.
While we aren’t predicting any blowout of that magnitude, we do see the Suns getting off to a quick start and holding off the Clippers for a SU & ATS win to start this 2nd-round series.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: PHOENIX 106 LA CLIPPERS 98
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