Monday STAR SELECTION
Mississippi +3 over MEMPHIS ST
The Ole Miss Rebels look to tame the Tigers at the Memphis Liberty Bowl on Monday afternoon. The Labor Day matinee will feature one of the bigger non-conference rivalries of the South, as these 2 teams have been going at it almost every year since 1921.
Memphis has posted back-to-back bowl appearances and two straight eight-plus win seasons for the first time ever, in addition to being ranked in the AP Poll. That was with a 4-year starter, Danny Wimprine, at QB and a huge, experienced offensive line. The Tigers do return their premier tailback in DeAngelo Williams; however, he could discover rather quickly that the holes he ran through previously aren’t there. With Wimprine replaced by a signal caller without any starting experience, new receivers, and just one starter back on the line, defenses will be able to focus almost exclusively on stopping Williams. As it is, Williams has not been overwhelming against Ole Miss. Actually the Tigers worst rushing day in yards per carry last year was against the Rebels defense. This year 7 starters return to that stop unit and they should be even stronger against the Heisman Trophy candidate this time around.
Ed Orgeron is the head coach at Ole Miss, and Rebel fans hope he can get the team headed back in the right direction. Mississippi began life without Eli Manning on a sour note last season, as nobody could fill those huge shoes. They do return all of last year’s QBs and they should be much better with a years worth of snaps. Big things were expected of QB Michael Spurlock last year, but he failed to live up to the expectations of replacing Manning. Orgeron has installed a West Coast offense, and he feels that Spurlock has been put in a position to be successful. Rather than ask Spurlock to take a five-step drop and deliver from the pocket as Manning had done with the Rebels, Orgeron will enable his signal caller to move around in an effort to get rid of the ball quickly. Spurlock has had a good spring and fall, and Orgeron said that he “is magic†with the ball in his hand. Robert Lane has also practiced well and should see time on the field. Orgeron has hinted that he may even start Lane here, but that was probably an effort to keep the Tigers coaches guessing. The Memphis defense ranked 90th in total defense and 114th against the pass last season, so there should be plenty of opportunities for Mississippi to make some huge plays on offense.
Orgeron has brought fresh energy and enthusiasm to Ole Miss, and has the Rebels believing they can be winners. We look for them to respond in a big way here against Memphis, who they owe for defeats in each of the past 2 seasons. Ultimately, though, we believe this game will be won in the trenches. The size of linemen is an important feature – in colleges more so than in the pros. A team with a strong rushing game and an offensive line that outweighs its opponent’s defensive line by a significant margin on average should be able to run the ball at will. If a team can dominate a game on the ground, they should win convincingly. The opposing team will have to bring up its LBs and safeties to stop the run, which should open up the pass. A powerful running team vs. a light finesse defense should control the game. Such physical mismatches are common in games like Arkansas State at Virginia Tech, but it’s rare to see a team that outweighs its opponent by 40+ pounds on average be in the role of underdog. Here, we get Ole Miss as a dog with an offensive line that outweighs the Memphis D-line by a whopping 60 lbs. a man on average!
Just as the Rebels struggled without their 4-year starting QB last year, it’s time for Memphis to experience the pains of youth behind center, even with DeAngelo Williams in the backfield. The young Tigers are unlikely to handle the pressure of being favored against an SEC team bent on revenge. We have some numbers to back us up here, as the Memphis is 0-8 ATS (1-7 SU) since 1999 at home with a line between -6 and +6, demonstrating their inability to come through in games expected to be close. Going back to 1990 they are also 0-8 ATS (0-7-1 SU) at home with a line between -5 and +3 against non-conference foes. Finally, since 1995, they are 0-6 ATS at home vs. BCS schools, when not getting more than a TD worth of points from the linesmaker.
As mentioned, these 2 teams have been playing for decades, but the Tigers have never beaten the Rebels in 3 straight years. We don’t think they are in a position to do it here either, as the Orgeron era gets under way with an Ole Miss mild outright upset win in Memphis.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: MISSISSIPPI 28 MEMPHIS 20