My Big Play for Saturday...

Year-to-date record for big games... 4-0-1
week 1 none
week 2 Iowa State -21 (won 45-3)
week 3 Iowa -5 (pushed 29-24)
...... TCU -6 (won 48-24)
...... Utah -14 (won 40-13)
week 4 Florida State -14.5 (won 37-10)

Well, here I am posting early again with my big play since I see the line going against me, so here it is...

North Carolina State +1.5 (started at +3) over Tex Tech

I see a couple have already posted they like NC ST which is good - now here are my reasons:

NC ST has crushed all 4 of their opps this year in which they have allowed only 88.2 passing yards A GAME! It was against more run-oriented teams, but in each game they were well ahead and still no one could pass against them. Their defense has allowed an average of about 11 points a game while their offense has scored 34, 34, 65, and 32. They are a very good offensive team that can either run or pass equally well. One commen opponent thread is Navy, which they beat on the road 65-19 (this comes into play later). They also beat New Mexico, a solid club, 34-14. NM has beat Weber St 38-24, lost in OT at Air Force (a very good club) 38-31, and beat Baylor 23-0. Solid. So strength of schedule is average, but they have killed each one.

Texas Tech, on the other hand, was supposed to be a great team this year, but hasn't shown it. In their 1st game at Ohio State (of course, a great team!) they were crushed 45-21 in which they scored their points late after Ohio St had blown them away and pulled their starters. Bad loss. Then then beat SMU only 24-14. This is significant because SMU earlier had lost HUGE to Navy the week before - the same Navy team that got crushed 65-19 at home to NC St! There is the thread which you can follow Tx Tech to NC State. Tech barely beats a team that gets crushed by a team that got crushed by NC St! Not good for Tech. The next week Tech got by a good Mississippi team 42-28 at home. The numbers of the game show a different story. Here are Tech's scoring drives:
8 plays for 42 yards - FG
8 for 80 yards - TD
4 for -1 yard - FG
int - TD
4 for 11 yards - TD (this happened just before half)
punt return - TD
12 for 84 yards - TD

as you can see, Tech got 14 points from a int and punt return. Also, they got a TD after getting the ball on Miss's 11 yard line after a fumbled punt in which Miss had to fall on the ball, and got a FG after losing 1 yard on a drive. This totals 24 points they received courtesy of GREAT field position and Miss mistakes! Miss had scoring drives (all TD's) of 80, 80, 74, and 64 yards. They had poor field position all day and still put up 28 points on what amounts to a bad Tech defense. Tech's defense will get eaten alive by NC State. In that game Miss had 450 net yards to 309 for Tech. Tech had 27 rushes for only 39 YARDS! They are only a passing team, and that plays into NC St's great passing defense. Tech will have big trouble matching points with this very well-balanced NC St offense.

NC State will have no problem scoring on a very suspect Tech defense, and their good passing defense will hold Tech's one-dimensional attack in check throughout the day. This will not be that close, and bring in the fact NC State is GETTING points, well, it makes for another big play.

North Carolina State 35, Texas Tech 21