My Big Play for Saturday...

So far this year 5-0-1

week 1 none
week 2 Iowa St -21 (won 45-3)
week 3 Iowa -5 (push 29-24), TCU -6 (won 48-24), Utah -14 (won 40-13)
week 4 Florida St -14.5 (won 37-10)
week 5 NC State -1.5 (won 51-48, were leading 38-10!)

From now on I will not do a huge write-up like I have in the previous weeks. I am still handicapping the game very in-depth, but with so many previous games being played on the teams schedules, it's getting too long writing all the info I use.

This week my big play is on Boise State at home -19.5. Boise St has a huge home field advantage on their unique blue-field turf and their extremely crazy fans. It has led to 20-1 record in last 21 home games with them scoring more than 30 in 26 of those. Also, in the last 3 years they have a 9-2 ATS record at home with one of them being against Utah State in 2000 winning as a 16.5 favorite 66-38. They will put up a lot of points at home. They are coming off a bye week (and two road games) which helps with planning immensely. This also gives time for new QB Rhode to get even more comfortable. QB Dinwiddie hurt himself at Arkansas but Rhode filled in greatly last week in the blowout of Wyoming. More practice time only helps. Boise State has a very well-balanced offense with a strong running game. This plays into their hands very well agains't Utah St. They rank 112 in the nation in div-1A in rushing defense and allow 451 total yards a game (108th in nation). Boise State will be able to score at will and has shown they already can. Utah State's offense is almost as bad. Against Utah (at home), Nebraska, and Iowa they were outscored 115-23 with last week's dumping at Iowa (48-7) showing how inept they are. They finished with 21 yards rushing on 20 attempts and never got into the red zone. They only TD came on a 25 yard run by RB Robinson. Their rushing attack is ranked 116th in the nation getting only 60.75 yards a game. A HUGE point along those lines is the fact RB Robinson has left the team! He led them in rushing yards (128 total for the season!), punt returns (8.7), kickoff returns (19.2), and all purpose yards (113.5 a game). They sucked on offense with him - without him Boise State will flat-out come after the QB without a care in the world.

Boise State has a huge home-field advantage and a potent well-balanced offense. They average 29 points a game, and that includes the 14 points they scored at Arkansas (one of the best defenses in the nation). Their defense is solid, but it doesn't have to be this week against a pitiful Utah State team that has a bad offense without their best all-around player now leaving the team, and a HORRIBLE defense that ranks almost last in all DIV-1A rankings! Put it all together and you get a rout.

Boise State 45, Utah State 10
Good luck to everyone!