NAILING THE OVER IN THE NFC......
By: Michael Alexander
Everywhere you turn there is much talked and written about how to profit this season when wagering on football. Most is focused on side plays as opposed to totals. However, for the complete capper, one can not ignore the profit opportunities presented each week with totals. Just as with side plays there are decided advantages in team matchups when analyzing total plays.
In order to profit from these opportunities one must look at how the team is constructed (i.e what offensive and defensive acquisitions/losses did the team have in the off season) and what their coaches prevalent philosophy is about offense and defense as well as any coaching changes/additions that were made. The other factor to take into account are a teams reputation since the lines makers factor that into their total caculations. As an example, the Bears reputation is low scoring and tough defensive battles so as a result the totals tend to be a bit on the low side. If you had taken into account off season activities and the teams coaching philosophies you would have seen that the over was a better opportunity going into 2006 and sure enough the OVER in Bears games was a profitable 11-4-1.
So that you don't have to pour through all of the information and changes for each team this season I have listed below the top OVER opportunities in the NFC this season and narrowed the play to certain situations.
Chicago: The OVER is 8-2 when the Bears are off 3 straight wins both SU and ATS.
Green Bay: The OVER is 9-1 if the Packers are playing in a dome and are listed as an underdog.
Atlanta: The OVER is 6-1 when the Falcons are playing an AFC opponent and are listed as an underdog. You have to be careful with this one and see how some of their early games play out as Vick will not be in the lineup.
Carolina: The OVER is 9-2 when the Panthers are on the road and are coming off a SU home win.
Dallas: The OVER is a perfect 7-0 when the Cowboys are playing their first of back to back road games.
Detroit: The OVER is 11-2 when the Lions are listed as double digit underdogs.
Minnesota: The OVER is 12-1 when the Vikings are on the road against a divisional opponent are an underdog of 4 or more points.
New Orleans: The OVER is 11-2 when the Saints are on the road and playing an opponent who they beat earlier in the year.
NY Giants: The OVER is 6-0 when the total is less than 35 points.
Philadelphia: The OVER is 8-0 when the Eagles are an underdog and playing a team that has won at least 67% of their games.
St. Louis: The OVER is 11-1 when the Rams are coming off of a game that saw them rush for more than 150 yards.
San Francisco: The OVER 15-2 when the 49ers are playing a team that has won only 33% or less of their games.
Seattle: The OVER is 11-0 when the Seahawks are on the road versus an AFC opponent.
Tampa Bay: The OVER is 10-2 when the Bucaneers are at home playing a team that has beaten them earlier in the year.
Washington: The OVER is 6-1 when the Redskins are at home and are coming off two games that saw them go under the total.
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