NBA Back-to-back Team Tendencies
By StatFox
One of the most trying factors for handicappers when considering NBA basketball is the back-to-back scenario. Schedules aren’t as routine in the NBA as they are in baseball and football, so naturally, fatigue is a more prominent variable that the bettor has to consider. In this first part, I will be looking at each individual team, while next week I will be focusing on league wide systems. Hopefully, we’ll uncover some nuggets you can employ the rest of this NBA season and beyond.
The important thing to recognize when you study each team’s performance in back-to-back games is that they are all built differently. Some teams are in rebuilding mode and youth is prominent, while others boast more seasoned veterans used to the rigors of the NBA schedule. Many of the clubs play an up-tempo style, while others rely on winning games on the defensive end. For some reason, teams will fare much differently on each end of the back-to-back, or in stand alone games. Think of factors such as these as I go through each of the teams and reveal angles that have defined their recent performance in back-to-back games.
I have highlighted the teams whose performance levels have been well above or below league standards. For each team, I have come up with a summary of their performance along with a trend or two you can use going forward.
Atlanta: Since the beginning of the 2008 season, Atlanta has really excelled on the road in the second night of a back-to-back scenario, going 11-4 ATS. Going back to 2006 however, the Hawks have been best in the stand alone scenario, covering 53% of their games as opposed to 46% in back-to-back spots.
Boston: The Celtics have been alarmingly better in back-to-back situations (77-39 ATS) than in stand alone games (84-89 ATS). They have been particularly strong on the road when having played at home the night prior, going 17-5 ATS since ’06, and on the road in the front end of a back-to-back, going 28-8 ATS.
Charlotte: Like the Celtics, the Bobcats have also fared much better in back-to-back situations than in stand alone games. In front & back end games combined since ’06, they are 76-56 ATS. In single games, they are just 52-64 ATS. Charlotte’s best spot has been on the front end of a b2b spot, 14-5 ATS in its L19, including 5-0 ATS in divisional games.
Chicago: The Bulls have struggled the most in the front end of back-to-back games of late, covering the spread at only a 40% rate in such situations over the last 3+ seasons. Under Vinny Del Negro, Chicago is just 8-18 ATS in front end games on the road. They’ve gone OVER the total in 25 of their L37 back end games.
Cleveland: The Cavaliers have been the single best stand alone game team in the league over the last three years. The combination of not having to battle fatigue issues and being able to concentrate fully on a single opponent has helped them thrive. They are 99-69 ATS in such games, and 101-67 UNDER the total, meaning they are winning with defense. They are 5-1 ATS at home on the back end of a b2b since the beginning of last season but 4-11 ATS in their L15 front end games.
Dallas: If any one angle has stood out for Dallas in back-to-back games of late, it has been the performance on totals, 62-38 UNDER combined in front & back end games. In fact, the Mavericks are 12-2 UNDER in their L20 back end games on the road. They have been a decent front end team, going 11-5 ATS in their L16 overall, including 8-0 ATS vs. Pacific & Northwest Division teams.
Denver: Here’s the verdict for Denver of late…back the Nuggets in stand alone games or in the front end of back-to-back scenarios. Fade them on the back end. In other words, George Karl’s team has only done well when rested. Denver is 9-14 ATS when playing its second straight road game in two nights, but 15-8 ATS in the first road encounter.
Detroit: Prior to last season, the Pistons had been a solid wager in almost every scheduling spot available in the NBA. However, in their one year under Michael Curry, and into 2009-10, they’ve managed to go just 15-21 ATS in back-to-back spots, with similar marks in both front end and back end games.
Golden State: A pair of significant trends have developed when Golden State comes home after playing the prior night on the road. In that spot, the Warriors are 8-3 ATS in their L11, as well as 10-1 OVER the total. In front end games at home, Golden State has gone 7-4 ATS. In essence, look for the Warriors in any back-to-back spot in the game they play at home.
Houston: With a 61-50 ATS record in combined back-to-back spots compared to 779-81 ATS in stand alone games, it’s clear that the Rockets are successful in dealing with scheduling challenges. Their defensive focused style of play is a good fit for back-to-back games. The most significant trend finds Houston as 20-10-1 ATS in its L31 back end games, including 9-2 ATS vs. Eastern Conference foes.
Indiana: Indiana is one of the few teams in the NBA whose performance hasn’t wavered a great deal regardless of the scheduling circumstances. One trend that has developed though has been the Pacers going over the total vs. Western Conference teams in back-to-back spots. In combined front-end and back-end games, they are 22-9 OVER, while allowing 110.4 PPG.
LA Clippers: The logic is pretty simple when it comes to the Clippers and back-to-back scheduling in the NBA. They stink when rested, with a record of 73-114 ATS (39%) combined in stand alone games or on front ends of a b2b. On back ends, they are almost a 50/50 proposition against the spread. If this team has time to prepare for an opponent, fade them.
LA Lakers: Considering that the teams have won the last two NBA titles, it shouldn’t be a surprise that the Celtics and Lakers are #’s 1 & 2 in the NBA in back end success in back-to-back scenarios. Championship level clubs deal with scheduling challenges and adapt. Los Angeles has covered 62% of its back end games over the last 3+ seasons, doing particularly well in the second of road games in consecutive nights, going 21-8-1 ATS in its L30. The Lakers have proven a high scoring team in back end games as well.
Memphis: The Grizzlies’ performance in back end games of back-to-back scenarios has been, well, downright grizzly. They have won outright in just 10 of their L67 when playing their second game in two days, and are just 28-39 ATS for 42% in that span. When Memphis plays at home after a road game the night prior, it has lost seven straight games both SU & ATS, with a point margin of at least eight points each time. That said, HC Marc Iavaroni’s team hd covered eight of its L11 front end games as of presstime.
Miami: Miami has not done well in either the front end or the back end of back-to-back situations of late. In fact, over the last 3+ seasons, the Heat are covering the spread at a 44% clip, compared to 51% in stand alone games. When playing at home on the back end after playing on the road the night prior, they are just 2-10 ATS in their L12. In the front end of those games they are just 3-9 ATS. So look for spots when Miami plays a road-to-home back-to-back and fade it in both
Milwaukee: Most of Milwaukee’s scheduling trends deal with totals, as the Bucks have been a reliable OVER team of late. However, in no circumstance are they more likely to go OVER than against a divisional or non-conference foe in the front end of a back-to-back set. In such games the Bucks are 26-12 OVER since the start of the ’06 season. Interesting, in those 26 OVER’s, they are 13-12-1 ATS. In the 12 UNDER’s, they are 10-2 ATS.
Minnesota: As reliable as the Timberwolves have become as a road dog, they’ve been especially good on the road in back end games of b2b spots, going 11-4 ATS in their L15. On the opposite front end, Minnesota has really struggled against Eastern Conference foes, going 8-16 ATS.
New Jersey: The Nets have been a reliable bet on totals in the second of back-to-back games, going 16-8 OVER since the start of last season. They’ve also been strong coming home after playing on the road the night before, with a 12-3 ATS record in their L15. The front end has been a struggle though, 27-38 ATS overall since ’06.
New Orleans: Having a point guard like Chris Paul able to control the tempo has helped the Hornets to a 60% ATS rate in the back end of back-to-back games over the L3+ seasons. When playing on this second consecutive night in its home arena, New Orleans is a sterling 14-3 ATS in that span. On top of that, HC Byron Scott’s team has also gone 13-7 ATS during that same time period at home in the front end of b2b’s.
New York: Overall, New York hasn’t done particularly well or poorly in either end of the back-to-back scenarios, but when digging deeper, there have been some specific spots where the Knicks have thrived or floundered. When playing their second road game in as many nights, they have won six straight games ATS, and have gone OVER the total in eight of the L9 games. At home on a back end, New York has been an ugly 5-13 ATS in its L18. Front end games have been low scoring for the Knicks, with the UNDER going 15-6.
Oklahoma City: When playing on the back end of consecutive game nights, it’s a good bet that Oklahoma City will be going OVER the total, after all, it has in 13 of its L17 chances. When playing on the road after a home game the previous night, the Thunder are on a 10-4 ATS run. Still, the most opportune time to wager this club is simply in front end games of back-to-backs as they are 17-6-1 ATS dating back to February ’08.
Orlando: The Magic have been a fantastic pointspread covering team for the last 3+ seasons, but they have been at their best when playing on the second of back-to-back nights. They are 23-13-1 ATS since ’07 in such games, including 11-4 ATS when playing their second straight road game. It’s not exactly like Orlando has struggled on the front end either, having converted nine of its L10 ATS in the first of those two road games. HC Stan Van Gundy’s team will play back-to-back road games on seven different occasions this year. Mark those dates down.
Philadelphia: Something happened in March 2008 that changed the way Philadelphia performed on the second night of back-to-back games. Be it something ACTUALLY occurring or pure coincidence, the 76ers are 8-18 ATS in such contests where before they had gone 29-11 ATS. Ironically, it was about that same time that they got better on the front end, going 16-11 ATS in their L27 games since that month.
Phoenix: At one point having won 11 straight front end games of b2b’s in a row ATS, the Suns have proven an overall solid bet in such games. They are 23-9-1 ATS in front end spots since December ’07, including 6-1 ATS at home, and 4-1 ATS vs. divisional opponents.
Portland: Portland ranks third in the NBA in ATS success in the second of back-to-back games over the last 3+ seasons at 61%. The teams the Blazers are behind: Boston & Los Angeles. That in itself is not too shabby, but when you dig further, you’ll see that they really excel at home (12-5 ATS) and in the second of consecutive road contests (14-6 ATS). On the front end, Portland isn’t nearly as strong and has actually gone just 9-14 ATS in its L23 in that scenario overall.
Sacramento: With as bad as Sacramento has been in the back end of consecutive games (2-19 SU, 9-12 ATS in L21), the performance is front end games is simply remarkable. In fact, over the L3+ seasons, the Kings are actually the NBA’s third best wager in such contests, having gone 38-27 ATS for 58%. Apparently they use it all up the first night and have little left for the second. In any case, look for them on the road as an underdog of 5-1/2 points or more in the first of b2b’s, they are 21-10 ATS.
San Antonio: A rested Spurs’ team is a reliable wager. Backing a fatigued Spurs’ team is a bankroll burning endeavor. Since ’06, San Antonio is just 22-34 ATS for 39% in the second of back-to-back games. They are particularly bad at home, 4-12 ATS in that span. They are also poor on the front end of consecutive road games, with a record of 3-11-1 ATS in their L14. Where you want to back San Antonio is on the front end of b2b’s at home, 10-5 ATS over the L3+ seasons.
Toronto: Back end games for the Raptors have not been particularly kind of late, as they are just 2-12 SU & 4-8-2 ATS in their L14 in that spot. Compare that to the 8-4-1 ATS record in their L13 front end games and its easy to see that Toronto is a better team when not facing fatigue.
Utah: The Jazz struggles in the second of back-to-back games were well documented by yours truly in the Platinum Sheet all last season. In fact, going back to March ’08, Utah has gone just 5-20 SU & 6-19 ATS in such games. For a team that wins 65% of its games otherwise, HC Jerry Sloan has a glaring problem. With a 3-14 ATS mark in the second of consecutive road games, betting the Jazz in that spot is like betting suicide.
Washington: If you’re one of those bettors who loves to fade or follow teams in certain situations regardless of the matchup or another other external factor, than I’d have to say that betting against Washington on the road in the second of back-to-back games should be on your must-do list. The Wizards rarely win in such a situation, having gone 7-31 SU & 14-22-2 ATS over the L3+ seasons. It’s not a secret that bad teams struggle in back-to-back games. Washington has been a bad team.