DIRECT FROM VEGAS
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
NBA BOUNCE-BACKS THE PERCENTAGE PLAY LAST YEAR IN ROUND ONE
Everyone's been talking about the same thing after the first games in the opening round of the NBA playoffs were complete. "Who are you going to take in Game Two?"
Longtime bettors invariably jump on the loser of game one in the second game. This is a tried and true approach that generally gets the money over the long haul. The problem is, it's not always as automatic in the early rounds as it tends to be in the more even matchups that are played later.
I mean...bad teams that don't deserve to be in the playoffs aren't automatic to bounce back strong after a loss. And, teams that lose a heartbreaker in the first game often don't have anything left in the rematch. They went all out and fell short. That foreshadows a home blowout, not a road victory.
In the past this website feature has looked at what happened in similar situations in past years. Handicappers should know the scope of expectations when making selections. You don't want to lay points in the first round of MARCH MADNESS if dogs are going to get the money. You don't want to bet Overs with tired teams, or Unders with fresh teams if the histories are showing certain tendencies. With that in mind, let's check and see what happened in the "bounce back" situations last year in Game Two of the first round meetings.
GAME ONE LOSERS: 4-2-2 against the spread
TOTALS: 3-5 to the Under
The bounce back did show a clear edge last year. The only team that lost its series opener at home was New Jersey. They came back and beat Indiana in a cover in Game Two. The rest of the bounce back teams were underdogs, and they went 3-2-2 against the number. Now, with two pushes, that means that sharp players who shopped for lines probably found a way to win. Those looking for the bounce backs went 6-2 at the right prices. Those figuring there wouldn't be ANY bounce backs also went 3-5 if they shopped around successfully. It's best to call it 4-2-2 with that in mind. That's 67% for the bounce-back theory. Game tempo's did slow down, as first game losers were focused on playing defense and trying to stay alive. That led to more Unders than Overs.
Here's a quick breakdown:
UNDERDOG BOUNCE BACKS
* Washington (+4) beat Cleveland 89-84 after dropping the first game of their Eastern Conference series. This is kind of the "classic" scenario that some handicappers imagine happens all the time. In the later rounds, some series yo-yo like this with the previous loser coming back to win the next game. Washington/Cleveland would prove to be a very competitive series.
* LA Lakers (+5) beat Phoenix 99-93 after dropping the first game of their Western Conference series. The Lakers really love playing the Suns in the postseason. They covered the first game last year on the way to a long and exciting series. Sunday's opener for this year's matchup also provided evidence that the Lakers aren't going to roll over without a fight. Underdogs win these first two games on the list. Those would be the only two straight up victories in second games.
* Sacramento (+11) covered at San Antonio in a 128-119 overtime loss. The game was tied at 109 at the end of regulation. This was an inspirational effort for the outmanned Kings. San Antonio took the game too lightly, and almost regretted it. Some handicappers like to imagine that this happens all the time with big dogs. It happens enough to get noticed. But, it's not automatic in the first round.
* Chicago (+7) pushed in a 115-108 loss at Miami. Dog players certainly don't believe this was a mistaken play. The Bulls just didn't have enough to keep it tight in the final minutes last year. We haven't mentioned totals yet in this run-through. This Over makes the first four games in the study 2-2 on the totals.
* Milwaukee (+11) pushed in a 109-98 loss at Detroit. The Bucks were obviously in position to cover this tall number. So, it wasn't a dumb play even if it didn't end up winning for everyone. We're now five games into the eight game study, and you get the sense that bounce back underdogs are going to offer value. They will at least put you in position to cover more often than not. Combine that with line shopping, and you'll be playing intelligently. This game went Over the total. That's the last time we'll say that.
FAVORITE BOUNCE BACK
* New Jersey (-8) beat Indiana 90-75. The Nets were the only team to lose the first game of their series at home. They bounced back with some authority in this double digit victory. They would go on to win the series as well, which can be tough when you drop the opener.
FAVORITES THAT WON AND COVERED
* LA Clippers (-3) beat Denver 98-87. Denver lost a heartbreaker in the first game, dropping an 89-87 decision. They ran out of gas in the rematch. The line stayed low because THE WHOLE WORLD thought Denver had a great chance to even the series. Sometimes it takes teams more than a game to recover from a tough road loss.
* Dallas (-6) beat Memphis 94-79. The Mavericks made it clear that they wanted to dispatch the Grizzlies quickly so they'd have more energy for the Spurs in Round Two. That approach worked very well, and goes against the grain for bounce back players. At least they can take solace knowing that the spread won't be this low in Game Two of the Golden State series. The last three games in the study stayed Under their Vegas totals...leading to three Overs and five Unders for the full stretch.
To sum it up, if last year is any guide at all, you'll be wanting to focus your action on Underdogs and Unders Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday as the eight first round matchups play their second game. Odds suggest that's the percentage approach. Now, if you LOVE a favorite to jump to a 2-0 lead...that's not the end of the world. Last year two favorites covered, and two more pushed (probably covering for line shoppers). You can make that approach work. You're just swimming upstream. Same thing with Overs. Make sure you LOVE an Over before bucking that totals trend. Motivated visitors and flat favorites seem to lead to low scoring defensive-minded games.