Notifications
Clear all

NBA Second Half Stretch Run

3 Posts
1 Users
0 Reactions
775 Views
(@mvbski)
Posts: 43756
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

NBA Second Half Stretch Run
Dave Cokin

The NBA took the weekend off for the All Star break, but now it's back to action. The second half stretch run is one of the best times of the year for sports handicappers. Some teams are completely out of it and will pack it in, allowing for great go-against spots. Other "bubble" teams will attempt to make a second half push to try and squeeze into the playoffs, while still others are the elite teams jockeying for the top seeds in each conference. Here's a look at some of those top dogs that are thinking NBA title.

Pistons: The old warriors in Detroit continue to be one of the beasts of the East since their surprise title in 2004. Depth and experience are their hallmarks. This backcourt is still deadly behind Richard Hamilton (18.3 ppg) and Chauncey Billups (17.3 ppg), leading Detroit in scoring. Both are clutch and Hamilton's height creates mismatches.

There are rebounders and role players all over with Tayshaun Prince, Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess. McDyess had come off the bench in recent years, but the experiment to have him start this season has worked well, averaging 9 points and 6 boards. Flip Saunders was brought in to run a more uptempo offense, but note that Detroit still plays defense, allowing 43% shooting by opponents, second best in the NBA. The Pistons play great defense at home, but allow 7 more points per game on the road, where they are 15-10 over the total.

Celtics: This was the makeover team of the century, going from perennial lottery team to powerhouse overnight. GM Danny Ainge essentially changed the Green from a one-star team (Paul Pierce) to three stars with the additions of Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett. Garnett's enthusiasm and work ethic have impressed everyone. Reports are he even loves practice! Most impressive is that the Celtics went from being a poor defensive team for several years under Doc Rivers to the best. Boston allows 42% shooting and 89 points per game, both tops in the league. That's why they are 18-5 SU, 16-7 ATS on the road. The Celtics begin the second half of the season on a long West Coast swing and expect Garnett to be back healthy. Another Pistons/Celtics Eastern Finals, like the 1980s, is in the cards.

Hornets: Where did these guys come from? New Orleans has the most explosive guard the NBA has season in a long time in Chris Paul, averaging 20.5 points and 10.9 assists. But he's not alone. They have a pair of kids playing well on the boards in 6-9 David West (19.8 ppg, 9.2 rpg) and 7-1 Tyson Chandler (12.5 rpg), plus veteran long range shooter Peja Stojakovic, who has been healthy enough to start 46 games. A remarkable 19-7 SU, 16-7 ATS road record shows this young team is no fluke.

Mavericks: It's tough to figure out who's running the Mavs. Jason Kidd arrives to put them over the top....then the trade is dead....and now it's back on! Seems like the Mavs are panicking after hearing Shaq was heading West. Word is that they are down on Devin Harris, a young guy with talent and speed, but suspect basketball knowledge. So bringing in a soon-to-be-35 year old Kidd is going to put them over the top? OK, but they already had a brilliant playmaker a few years ago in Steve Nash and defended the move to let him go. Who wouldn't want the talent on this team? They dominated the regular season a year ago, and two years ago make the NBA Finals with a super-talented young team. Now it seems as though they are panicking. Perhaps the most revealing stat regarding the Mavs is a poor 12-15 SU, 10-16 ATS road record.

Suns: He's here! The most expensive role player in NBA history, that is. The trade for Shaq is fascinating, changing the makeup of a finesse, run-and-gun team to one that can crash the boards with a monster rebounder, when needed. Come playoff time, they will need someone like that, especially after recent playoff losses to the rugged Spurs. They are gambling that Shaq has just enough left in the tank to help them win a title, making the cost of Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks reasonable. Awful Minnesota slowed the pace down and went 2-0 SU/ATS against Phoenix this season! So the Suns made the move in the event playoff teams like San Antonio decide to slow it down. Note that the Suns are 1-2 SU/1-1-1 ATS as a dog, and 3-0 under the total in those games as defense and slow tempo was the difference.

Spurs: Think the Spurs are already gearing up for the playoffs? San Antonio is currently on a 12-4 run under the total. They are 30-18 under the total overall. Despite playing .500 ball on the road, they have been hiding under the radar much of the season, trying to get healthy. Yet, they are still a force to be reckoned with. Asked last week about Shaq going to Phoenix because he wants a fifth ring, Duncan snapped, "To heck with him. I want that fifth ring."

sportsnetwork.com

 
Posted : February 19, 2008 7:20 pm
(@mvbski)
Posts: 43756
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

NBA MIDSEASON REVIEW...PART I

Well, if we want to get specific, the All-Star break isn't really the halfway point of the NBA season. Indeed, for many teams, it's closer to the two-thirds mark of the campaign. Regardless, it's a good time to pause and take a look at various team trends and angles from the first 3½ months of the season...and what we might expect in the sprint to the regular-season finish line.

A general overview of the season to date has to focus on the depth in the Western Conference. Although popular opinion entering the campaign was that the East had almost "caught up" with the West after several seasons of being pushed around, that hasn't been the case in 2007-08. A quick glimpse at the standings confirms what we're talking about; at the All-Star break, a 32-20 Houston side wouldn't even qualify for the playoffs in the West, while in the East, 23-30 New Jersey and Philadelphia teams would both make it to the postseason if the playoffs began this weekend. Indeed, there are only five teams above .500 at the All-Star break from the Eastern Conference, while ten qualify in the West. What's more, no team in the West can feel secure about a playoff bid, as a mere 4½ games separates conference pacesetters New Orleans and Phoenix from missing the postseason entirely. Meanwhile, Boston and Detroit could probably lose almost all of their games for the rest of the regular season, and still make the playoffs...handily.

Following are some team-by-team trends, notes, and angles, broken down by conference and division thru the All-Star break. In coming weeks, we'll be breaking down the winners and losers at the NBA trade deadline, plus periodically updating the chase for the playoffs. And, as always, at the end of the regular season, we'll have a comprehensive preview and handicap of upcoming playoff action. Stay tuned.

First comes the Eastern Conference; a similarly comprehensive Western Conference update will appear in our next issue, available Monday by 6:00 PM Pacific time.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Southeast Divison

Atlanta...The Hawks have been rather formful lately, faring much better at Philips Arena (standing 10-4-1 their last 15 vs. the number) than on the road, where they've dropped their last 5 straight up and 8 of the last 10 vs. the number. Atlanta is also "under" 15-8 on the road at the break. The young, athletic Hawks (featuring the likes of Joe Johnson, right) have made marginal improvement this season and enter the break hanging around the lower East playoff spots. But with much the same roster as the past two seasons, and the same inconsistencies, Atlanta has been erratic, losing 15 of its last 22 entering the break, fueling speculation that HC Mike Woodson might be in jeopardy. With the Hawks an unlikely participant at the trade deadline, we'd watch the next few weeks carefully, as Woodson's job might depend on reversing that recent slide.

Charlotte...Injury-plagued, the Bobcats have really taken their lumps on the road, where they've dropped 14 of their first 21 as a dog (and 14 of 18 receiving 4 points or more). As mentioned, nagging hurts continue to be an issue, with leading scorer Gerald Wallace the latest casualty with a foot strain, and promising 2nd-year F Adam Morrison out since October with knee problems. Coupled with the recent slump of Jason Richardson, the ongoing lineup changes of HC Sam Vincent, and the failed Earl Boykins experiment (he's not the answer in the backcourt, especially if his recent blanking with 0 FGs and 0 assists vs. the Lakers Feb. 11 is any indication), it's been a nightmarish campaign in Charlotte, although the Bobcats are remarkably within sight of the last Eastern playoff spot.

Miami...Quite simply the NBA's biggest disappointment, not only this season but in recent memory, the Heat entered Thursday night's game at Chicago having lost 23 of its last 24, and Shaq no longer in town after his recent trade to Phoenix. More deals might be in the offing; only Dwyane Wade and maybe the recently-acquired Shawn Marion are immune, and there's even speculation that Marion is a rental, and will be dealt to clear more space under the salary cap. The Heat are just 7-19 vs. the line at home, and have covered just once after its first 9 wins. Can it really be just 2 years ago that Miami was NBA champion?

Orlando...A rather pleasant surprise, although the Magic have basically been playing .500 ball since Thanksgiving. For the first two months of the campaign, Orlando had outstanding success vs. the line, covering 17 of its first 20 overall and 16 of its first 18 away, but those numbers have flattened considerably since (Orlando just 15-18 its last 33 vs. the line overall, and 4-7 its last 11 away). An "inside-out" team, to be sure, with more wins than any NBA team on the road (19), but only 14-11 at Amway Arena at the break. Dwight Howard has developed into a monster, but the team's defense has broken down considerably since New Year's, and Howard has had a recent rift with HC Stan van Gundy, who benched him in a game. Van Gundy called Howard out in public, telling him to concentrate on rebounding and defense, and got some immediate positive results from the young star. Remember when University of Florida coach Billy Donovan held the Magic coaching job for a day or two last spring?

Washington...Despite a recent 8-game losing streak, the Wizards hit the All-Star break in the East's 6th playoff spot. And good news for Washington was that the team finally ended that slide in the last game before the break, beating the Clippers at Staples Center. But there might be no team that could use the break more than Washington, with Caron Butler sidelined lately by a strained hip flexor, and Antonio Daniels missing recent action with knee and ankle woes. Their absences have allowed opponents to gang up defensively on Antawn Jamison, who has begun to look fatigued. The good news is that Butler and Daniels should be back soon, and G Gilbert Arenas (left), out since November with a knee injury, has targeted early March for his return. Nonetheless, the Wizards have offered exceptional value as home chalk, covering 12 of their first 16 as a Verizon Center favorite.

Atlantic Division

Boston...The biggest surprise team in the East, and with the best overall record in the league (41-9) at the break. The offseason additions of Kevin Garnett & Ray Allen to go along with holdover Paul Pierce made the Celtics an instant contender, but few expected such an improvement. True, the ab strain that has kept Garnett out of action most of the past few weeks must be monitored, but the team won 7 of 9 games in his absence. Young Leon Powe and Glen "Big Baby" Davis have filled in adequately for Garnett (though note Davis' quad injury in the last game before the break, Feb. 13 vs. the Knicks), and the maturing of young PG Rajon Rondo has also been a plus. The Celtics have also offered exceptional value on the road, covering 16 of their first 23 away.

New Jersey...It looks like reconstruction time for the Nets, with the proposed Jason Kidd-to-Dallas deal (still unresolved as we go to press) the first of several likely moves that will end the days of the team as we know it. It speaks volumes about the quality (or lack thereof) of play in the East that the Nets would be in the playoffs if the season ended this weekend, but that's the case. Still, with Kidd likely out the door, Vince Carter limited by an ankle injury that will eventually require surgery, more trade rumors flying, and ten different starting combinations already having been used by HC Lawrence Frank, it's no wonder New Jersey is talking about starting from scratch. The Nets have also dropped 19 of their first 27 vs. the line at the Izod Center (nee Continental Airlines Arena), as well as 10 of 14 against the number in second nights of back-to-backs.

New York...Even in the woeful East, the Knicks aren't going anywhere except the Draft Lottery. Yet despite being arguably the league's most-dysfunctional organization, and with HC Isiah Thomas having a tenuous hold (at best) on his job, New York has proven surprisingly scrappy, especially on the road, where it has managed to cover 7 of its last 8, and 9 of its last 11 away from Madison Square Garden. On the other hand, note their poor 1-8 spread mark as a favorite at home, where local fans would rather cheer the beagle Uno, who won Best in Show last week in the Westminster Kennel Club show at the Garden. The Knicks are also drawing a lot of interest as the trade deadline nears, especially with big men Zach Randolph and Eddy Curry apparently on the block and ready to go to the highest bidders.

Philadelphia...The youth-laden Sixers didn't want to stop for the break, not after completing five straight impressive home wins, and an 8-0-1 spread mark their last 9 games prior to the All-Star hiatus. The team is suddenly responding to HC Mo Cheeks, with the guards causing more pressure on the defensive end, free to take chances now that C Samuel Dalembert has emerged as a defensive force behind them, and Cheeks imploring his underrated backcourt to attack in transition. The pieces are suddenly fitting, with vet G Andre Miller playing as good as ever, and swingman Andre Iguodola attacking the bucket with consistency. Georgia Tech 6-8 rookie F Thaddeus Young is also beginning to make his presence felt. Note the defensive effort, however, holding 10 of their last 11 foes under 100 points, and "unders" 8 of the last 11.

Toronto...The Raptors enter the break rather comfortably entrenched in the East's fifth playoff spot, although they're disappointed they're not playing a bit better at the Air Canada Centre. Remember, Toronto was 30-11 straight-up at home last season, but had already dropped that many as a host heading into the All-Star break this year. Nonetheless, Toronto has proven one of the more reliable home favorites thus far, covering 13 of its first 19 as home chalk after Wednesday night's demolition of the Nets. The team developed some depth in the backcourt when T.J. Ford missed 24 games with neck and back injuries, as Spaniard Jose Calderon (12.7 ppg, 8.8 apg) has emerged as a serviceable alternative. Ford has just returned to action, although he is now dealing with a wrist injury.

Central Division

Chicago...If not for Miami's historic collapse, the Bulls would be regarded as the East's most disappointing team. With lots of preseason hype, Chicago figured to be a legit contender for conference honors, but it's been one distraction after another since the summer. The Kobe Bryant trade rumors might have been disconcerting; if they weren't, something else must have, because Chicago broke so slowly from the gate that HC Scott Skiles was fired on Christmas Eve, replaced by assistant Jim Boylan. Subsequently, cocky rookie F Joakim Noah was suspended by his teammates after a verbal run-in with assistant coach Ron Adams, and a spate of injuries reduced the Bulls to a ragtag lineup in recent weeks with Ben Gordon (wrist), Luol Deng (Achilles tendon), Kurt Hinrich (ribs; since returned), and Ben Wallace (death in family) all missing recent action, though all could return soon. Rumors to watch including Wallace perhaps being on the block (Utah reportedly snooping around as the trade deadline looms), and Larry Brown's apparent interest in taking over the coaching reins. Stay tuned. Note Chicago was just 7-16 vs. the line at home prior to a Valentine's night encounter vs. Miami.

Cleveland...Are the Cavaliers ready to mount another serious title challenge? Well, perhaps, as the Cavs have nearly drawn abreast of current conference third seed Orlando after a recent uptick that has seen the team win 17 of its last 24 games, including 7 of its last 9 away (and covers in 7 of its last 10 as a visitor). Still, the roster hasn't been terribly upgraded since a year ago, and there hasn't been a lot of chatter involving Cleveland as the trade deadline approaches despite LeBron James' request for a Jason Kidd deal. How far can James take the Cavs? Also note Cleveland's subpar 5-11 home chalk mark at the break.

Detroit...The Pistons aren't tearing up the league against the line, dropping 12 of their last 19 spread decisions after covering 11 in a row around the holidays. But they have been hot, winning 10 straight into the All-Star break (their second 10-game win streak of the season), and they've been money all season as chalk at the Palace, covering 16 of their first 24 as a home favorite. With "the best starting five in the league," according to Atlanta HC Mike Woodson, the Pistons have complemented their first five with surprisingly strong bench play, with rookies Rodney Stuckey & Arron Afflalo emerging as key contributors. Breathing down Boston's neck for the best record in the East, and the NBA.

Indiana...It's been a difficult ride for the Pacers, who continue to be bothered by nagging injury woes. F Jermaine O'Neal continues to miss action with knee problems, which apparently are standing in the way of a possible trade deadline deal with the Nets. With PG Jamaal Tinsley missing recent action with a knee injury, and backup PG Travis Deiner also hobbling a sore ankle, HC Jim O'Brien might have been tempted to suit himself up after the team hit the break losing 9 of the past 11. Surprisingly, Indiana has managed to cover 7 of its first 10 in second nights of back-to-back games on the road.

Milwaukee...The Bucks appear to be headed nowhere, and rumors are flying from the Bradley Center that everyone save Yi Jianlian and Andrew Bogut could be available for the right price at the trade deadline. That would include high-scoring G Michael Redd. Nonetheless, sources say that HC Larry Krystowiak, for the moment at least, remains safe in his job, apparently still in the good graces of owner and U.S. Senator Herb Kohl. Krystowiak has been critical of the team in recent weeks, suggesting the team is on the verge of splintering because of the "personal agendas" of some players. We hope Krystowiak is bringing that up with the players, and not just the media. Laying points with this unreliable bunch is certainly not recommended, as the Bucks hit the break covering just 4 of their first 14 as chalk (although we can't envision them being favored too often in the final two months of the campaign).

 
Posted : February 20, 2008 8:57 am
(@mvbski)
Posts: 43756
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

NBA MIDSEASON REVIEW...PART II

Now that All-Star weekend is in the rear-view mirror, we can get down to the business of the rest of the NBA regular season, and the push for the playoffs.

Last week, we provided a comprehensive update featuring team notes, trends, and angles for Eastern Conference teams; this time, it the Western Conference's turn.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Southwest Divison

Dallas...Will he, or won't he? We're talking about the on-again, off-again trade that would bring Jason Kidd to the Mavs, which at this writing appears to be back on, reworked to involve some different supporting characters. Kidd arrives with a simple mandate: help Dallas win an elusive championship...now. The Mavs' chances are going to be better with Kidd, but it would also help to get the likes of Josh Howard, Devin Harris, and Jerry Stackhouse (who's not apparently in the reworked deal with Nets) back in the lineup, which will apparently happen this week. Dallas has not been a reliable road favorite thru the All-Star break, dropping 15 of 22 chances in that role (Kidd's presence shouldn't hurt those numbers any further). Also note that the Mavs aren't quite pushing the pace likes they have in recent seasons, resulting in a spate of recent "unders" (22 of the last 32 since Dec. 10).

Houston...How tough are things in the Western Conference? Consider the plight of the Rockets, who would like something to show for a recent uptick that saw them win 8 straight, 12 of 13, and 17 of 20 into the break. All that did was move Houston from the 10th spot in the West to the 9th...and still not in the playoff frame! Yet the Rockets are on the cusp of the postseason party, as they have finally began to assimilate HC Rick Adelman's more-uptempo preference after struggling to adjust in the first two months. For the moment, Tracy McGrady is healthy, though in his many absences the first few months Adelman has been able to develop some added depth. Houston has covered 18 of its last 27 thru Feb. 18, as well as 5 of its last 7 as road chalk after dropping 8 of its last 9 in that role. Note the Rockets are also "under" 16-9 at the Toyota Center.

Memphis...
We're not sure anything short of a Dale Carnegie course can get Grizzlies fans out of a funk, especially after their team dealt (gave?) away franchise cornerstone Pau Gasol in an apparent one-sided trade to the Lakers in late January. And Memphis might not be done in the trade market just yet, either, with F Mike Miller reportedly being hotly pursued by several teams, including New Jersey. And the "marquee" acquisition from the Gasol trade, immature C Kwame Brown, doesn't appear ready to make much of a contribution. It's going to take a real optimist to find much to like about the current Memphis situation, which includes 9 straight losses on the road. The Griz won only 1 of its first 7 games post-Pau, and stands just 5-10 vs. the line as home dog thus far. The pace has slowed from last season's racehorse style, too, reflected in "unders" 10 of the last 13 overall, and 16 of 24 on the road thru Feb. 18.

New Orleans...As bad as things have gone in Memphis, they've gone that well in New Orleans, which entered the break with the best record in the West. Although we'll find out in a hurry if the Hornets intend to stay on top of the conference, with their first three after the break against division pursuers Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio. Still, with a West-best 19-7 road mark at the break, New Orleans could be up to the task. Depth is impressive, and if the nucleus of the team (Chris Paul, Peja Stojakovic, & David West) avoid injury, there's no reason the Hornets can't continue to fly. Unlike last season, the New Orleans is also healthy, which is why many don't expect the Hornets to get too involved in serious trade discussions before the deadline. No surprise that New Orleans had covered better than 60% of its games thru the break, although after covering 17 of 19 from mid-December thru late January, the Hornets cooled just a bit before the break, dropping 5 of 7 against the line.

San Antonio...The champs are trying to make it to the playoffs in one piece, where they plan to take aim at their 5th title in 10 seasons and, important to some insufferable Lakers and Bulls fans who have trouble accepting the Spurs' greatness, their first back-to-back championships. Guard Tony Parker has missed recent action with a bone spur in his heel, but is expected back soon. Nonetheless, the team won 6 of 9 without Parker on its annual extended "rodeo" road trip before the break. Still, a healthy Parker is going to be needed to make a run at another crown, especially since other West contenders Phoenix, L.A. Lakers, and (apparently) Dallas have already made major acquisitions, and the Spurs don't figure to add anyone other than journeyman G Damon Stoudamire, who recently signed during Parker's absence. Note lots of "unders" lately (21-9-1 "under" last 31), although the Spurs did go "over" in 4 of their last 6 on the rodeo road trip before the break.

Northwest Division

Denver...The Nuggets are another of those Western teams on the cusp, technically into a tentative playoff field at the All-Star break on tiebreakers but effectively level with the Rockets and Warriors in spots 7 thru 9 in the conference, all with 32-20 records. It's doubtful we'll see Denver actively pursue a trade before the February 21 deadline; instead, HC George Karl is hoping to get both G Chucky Atkins (sports hernia) and F Nene (testicular cancer) back on the court in the near future, not to mention hoping Allen Iverson breaks out of a recent slump. Nonetheless, names such as Memphis' Mike Miller, Sacto's Ron Artest, and the Clippers' Sam Cassell have surfaced as possible targets in recent weeks. The Nuggets, who return from the All-Star break to host Boston Feburay 19, have covered 8 of their last 10 at the Pepsi Center, where they're also "over" 6 of their last 7.

Minnesota...No one expected the T-wolves to contend for a playoff berth after Kevin Garnett departed to Boston in the offseason; in that sense, Minnesota hasn't disappointed. But few thought the T-wolves would be out of the picture as quickly as they were, and despite a brief resurgence in late January, Minnesota exits the break on a 5-game losing streak. At least we don't have to hear any more talk about the T-wolves "beating" the '72-73 Philadelphia 76ers and their all-time worst 9-73 mark, but that's about the only good news from Target Center. It is hoped that now-healthy G Randy Foye, along with the expected return of C Theo Ratliff, can take some pressure off the productive Al Jefferson (21.2 ppg; 12.1 rpg; leads NBA in double-doubles) and help the team develop some momentum for HC Randy Wittman that will hopefully carry into next season. Ratliff, however, and dunk contest participant Gerald Green have been mentioned in recent trade rumors; stay tuned. Minnesota stands just 7-14 vs. the line as a home dog thru the break, and has also gone "under" in 7 of its last 8, as well as 16 of 24 on the road. The T-wolves are also a subpar 4-8 against the number in the second night of back-to-back games.

Portland...After an eye-opening uptick that began in early December and extended into late January, the young Blazers have lost a little steam the past few weeks, and they'll have to regroup if they wish to make a bid for a playoff berth in the rugged, rugged West. Portland covered 16 of 18 games between Dec. 3-Jan. 9, and had a 13-game win streak within that hot spell, but it exits the break having dropped 10 of its last 11 against the number. An underrated absence is that of SF James Jones, a marksman behind the arc (second in the league from tripleville, hitting 48.3%) who has missed the past few weeks with knee woes and is now expected to be out perhaps another month. Observers have noticed the Blazers' "spacing" hasn't been as good in his absence, either. But there have been plenty of breakdowns in the recent slide, incluing barely connecting on 50% of their FTs in losses at Houston & Dallas to conclude their most-recent road trip.

Seattle...Say it ain't so--are the Supersonics about to leave Seattle? Sadly, it's true, as the one-time expansion team we remember with Bob Rule forty years ago might really be on its way out of town. Rumors to that effect have been circulating for more than a year, but it might be coming to match point, especially since NBA commissioner David Stern mentioned the "inevitability" of the move due to the arena situation in Seattle, urging team officials to buy out the remaining two years on the Key Arena lease, paving the way for a move, most likely to Oklahoma City, with Las Vegas and Anaheim other possibilities. On the court, it has not been an easy season for new HC P.J. Carlesimo despite the presence of exciting Texas rookie Kevin Durant (19.4 ppg). Trade rumors are circulating, too, with frontliner Kurt Thomas getting a lot of attention from contenders (Dallas in particular), with Wally Szczerbiak, Earl Watson, and Luke Ridnour also mentioned as trade bait. The Sonics have been "under" in more than 60% of their games (31-20), including 15 of their last 22.

Utah...The Jazz entered the All-Star break on top of the Northwest Division, but their margin for error was slim, just a game and a half from being out of the playoff mix. We still expect Utah to make it into the postseason as it did a year ago when it unexpectedly roared to the conference finals, where the Spurs ended the fun in 5 games. The consensus opinion is that the Jazz won't be active at the trade deadline, especially after winning 18 of their last 21 entering the break. Their one earlier deal, acquiring sharpshooter Kyle Korver from the 76ers, has already paid big dividends (Utah's upsurge coincided with the Korver acquisition), although there have been rumors that Chicago's Ben Wallace could be Utah-bound. The Jazz have been solid as home favorites this season, covering 16 of their first 24 laying points in Salt Lake City, and after a slow start on the road have been improving greatly on their travels, covering 6 of their last 7 away.

Pacific Division

Golden State...Although not a model of consistency, Golden State remains dangerous, and entered the All-Star break in the playoff mix (although technically tied for the 7-8-9 spots with Denver and Houston at 32-20). The Warriors bounced back from a slow 0-6 start after Stephen Jackson returned from injury, and when "Captain Jack" teams with Baron Davis and Monta Ellis, the Warrior backcourt is as potent as any in the league. We'll see how long it takes the recently-signed Chris Webber to make a real impact; he didn't contribute much in his first three games, then sat out last Wednesday's shootout vs. the Suns. Sources say he's probably a couple of weeks away. Meanwhile, if Golden State is to make any more moves before the trade deadline, they might involve G Mickael Pietrus, who has demanded a trade. The Warriors have developed several trends this season; very suspect as home chalk (6-16 vs. number) and after a pointspread win (just 10-21 vs. number). They've also been a surprising "under" team at Oracle Arena ("under" 16-9 at Oakland thru the break).

L.A. Clippers...The season started badly for the Clippers, with both Elton Brand and Shaun Livingston unavailable due to injuries, but their first 3½ months must be considered a letdown nonetheless, as the Clips are reduced at most to role of spoiler and perhaps as a trade partner for a contender for the last two months of the campaign. The main talking point lately has been veteran G Sam Cassell (left), rumored to be either a trade or buyout candidate, with numerous destinations being floated in recent weeks. Corey Maggette's name has also popped up in trade talk, but the Clips would seem less likely to deal him than their 38-year-old guard. There could be some interesting administrative developments on the horizon, with owner Donald Sterling for the first time being publicly critical of longtime team president Elgin Baylor, and HC Mike Dunleavy's seat getting hotter by the week. Note their 4-13 spread mark after a pointspread win, and "under' 29-20 thru the break.

L.A. Lakers...The surprise team of the West, if not the entire NBA (although Boston might have something to say about that), the Lakers have emerged as a serious title contender with the aforementioned acquisition of F Pau Gasol from Memphis, a trade that admittedly might not have happened had C Andrew Bynum not suffered a knee injury in January. The improvement of Bynum, plus the steadying influence of vet G Derek Fisher (a big upgrade from the erratic Smush Parker), had combined with Kobe Bryant and a surprisingly productive bench to help the Lakers overachieve the first half of the season. But with Gasol now on board, and Bynum due to return before the end of the regular season, the "Lake Show" is back, and Kobe in particular must smell blood in the water, eschewing (for the moment) surgery on his injured right pinkie that would likely keep him out 6-8 weeks. The Lakers have offered especially good value on the road, covering 18 of their first 28 (including 8 of 9 on a recent road trip that was the team's longest since 1975!).

Phoenix...Is it the biggest trade deadline gamble in NBA history? If not, then the Suns' recent acquisition of Shaquille O'Neal has to be close. It seems a desperate roll of the dice by a franchise that has been oh-so close to the Finals the past few years, only to have its path blocked by San Antonio and Dallas. Does Shaq fit into the Suns' run-n-gun style? Most experts believe he'll be fine, if healthy, which is a big if these days for Shaq. If he is healthy, Shaq gives the Suns another option in their half-court offense other than the pick-and-roll, and allows Amare Stoudemire to move to his more-natural "4" position. Some observers also believe Shaq can fit in more easily to the "north-south" Suns' running style much as Kareem Abdul-Jabbar found his niche with the old Lakers' fullcourt game. Shaq is due to make his Suns debut on Wednesday against his old Lakers team; nonetheless, it probably shortens the championship "window" in the desert, given that Shaq and Steve Nash are well into their mid 30s. Let's see if Shaq can help improve what has been a poor Suns' home chalk mark, with Phoenix covering just 10 of its first 26 laying points at US Airways Center.

Sacramento...The last link to the Kings' glory days from earlier in the decade has departed, after G Mike Bibby's trade to Atlanta (pending approval on his physical) last week. Bibby, who missed considerable action in the first half of the season due to injury, appeared on the downside of his career, however, without the quicks to play top-notch defense any longer. Although the deal won't help the Kings much in the short-term (the four players acquired from Atlanta were all bit players for the Hawks), it does help create a lot of cap room for the Kings to begin rebuilding in the offseason. Keep an eye on veteran Ron Artest, also rumored as a trade candidate in recent weeks. For the moment, HC Reggie Theus remains frustrated at his team's addiction to jump shots (Sacto hasn't hit better than 50% from the floor in its last 11 games), and the bench has not helped much, either. The stretch drive could be a ragged run for the Kings. Let's see, however, if Sacto can continue its prowess as a home dog (10-3 in role thru All-Star break), and as a dog overall (23-12 as "short").

goldsheet.com

 
Posted : February 20, 2008 8:59 am
Share: