Always understand a “must win situation” vs. a “talent mismatch”. Must win situations can make a team play with tremendous tenacity, but sometimes an extreme talent disparity will out weigh the motivation. A good example was last years Lakers squad. No matter how motivated a team was to play them, the talent mismatch was too significant.
Coaching adjustments from a previous game vs. existing team philosophy. Will a coach radically adjust his team’s approach to compensate for the previous games shortcoming? Or will he stick to his guns and go with the same philosophy that got them their in the first place. This has a particularly strong affect on a games total. Anyone notice how low the Sacramento and Utah series has gone?
Public money vs. sharp money line moves. During the regular season it is much easier to differentiate a line move resulting from the smart money vs. the public money. Be aware that the public is responsible for most line moves in the postseason. Do not make a habit of following those types of moves. Always watch for a smart money move and never follow Joe Public!
Past playoff trends vs. this years playoff trends. Carefully balance and ascertain past playoff trends from this years trends. Remember the past is a great indicator of the future, but times also do change. Make sure you decipher the trends that still work from the trends that are obsolete. This year is shaping up very similar to the past, as is evidenced by the tremendous success of the Zigzag Theory”.
If you are handicapping on your own, be sure to consider the many different aspects of the postseason. If you understand them, there is a lot of money to be made
