Overrated/Underrated
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ACC
Overrated – Virginia – At first glance the Cavs look solid with a 10-3 record. However, they have played one of the weakest schedules in the ACC (218th nationally) and have only beaten one quality opponent (Arizona). They have feasted on poor competition at home (only 3 road games to date). They lost at home to Syracuse and were crushed @ Xavier by 38. Their other loss came on a neutral court to a below average Seton Hall team. Other than that, their schedule has been littered with wins over the likes of Hartford, Elon, Longwood & Howard.
Atlantic 10
Underrated – UMass – While this team only has two losses as of this writing, they are still not getting the respect they deserve. The Minutemen have beaten both Syracuse and Boston College on the road this year. They are solid on both sides of the ball and have one of the lowest turnover rates in the NCAA (17%). Five of their top seven players are upperclassmen so the experience is there. We will look to play on this team getting points on the road in certain situations.
Big East
Underrated – Cincinnati – This team struggled early on but they are really starting to play well as of late. Their 6-7 record doesn’t look impressive, however this team getting points (especially at home) will be worth a look. They are 2-3 their last five but have played five good teams very tough. They lost by 10 to Memphis which is the closest game the Tigers have had besides their battle with USC. They lost to Xavier by just 5 and NC State by 7, both on the road. They beat a very solid Miami (Oh) team and then turned around and beat Louisville on the road. Keep your eye on this team as a dog.
Big 10
Overrated – Purdue – This team will be up and down all year long. Right now they are on a down turn. They are 2-2 their last four games with losses to Wofford & Iowa State, neither of which is very good. They also got down 16-2 at home to a very poor Florida International team but battled back for a win. They are well coached but struggle shooting the ball (just 42% as a team). They have six players averaging 20 minutes per game or more, four are freshmen and two are sophomores. They will stay close to good teams at times, but will also drop some games they shouldn’t.
Big 12
Overrated – Nebraska – A simple look at the record might have you believing in this Husker team. Not us -- at least not yet. While they are 10-2, they have played one of the worst schedules in America. Their strength of schedule sits at 330th (out of 341 teams). They’ve also played just two road games this season, both losses by 12 @ Creighton and by 7 @ Western Kentucky. Their third road game of the season doesn’t come until January 15th. They have a pretty good win in overtime vs. Oregon but that’s about it. We’ll see how they do when they play the big boys on the road.
Conference USA
Overrated – Houston – The Cougs are rolling along with an 11-2 record as of this writing. Problem is, they have played just ONE true road game this season. That was @ UMass and a loss 95-89. Houston did play a few “neutral site” games earlier this season but they are definitely not road ready entering Conference USA play. They have also played a very poor schedule ranked 319th in the country. They are not a good shooting team (42%) and will likely struggle even more on the road (if they ever decide leave Houston!). They play weak road games in January before hitting the road vs. solid foes in February. That will be the time to fade this team as their overall record will definitely be over inflated.
Horizon League
Underrated – Illinois-Chicago – We love this Flame squad. While they have had their slip ups, they are a very solid 8-6 team right now. They are young, but head coach Jimmy Collins has said they are coming together as well as any team he has coached. They’ve gone on the road and beaten Central Michigan, DePaul and almost beat a very good Akron team. They are very efficient on offense and shoot the 3 as well as anyone (44% which is good for #2 nationally). They will have games where we say, “what the heck was that”, however we will side with them as underdogs in the right situation.
Top-ATS Teams
By Brad Young
The college basketball season now takes center stage with college football officially over for the year. The collegiate season is already a couple months old, and conference play across the country has tipped off.
While it is still way too early to talk about March Madness, we can check out which teams are the best bets against the spread. There are a couple of teams out there among the numerous conferences that have been solid selections at the betting window.
Surprisingly, a couple top teams in the country are also very formidable ATS. Usually public teams win their games SU, but struggle to cover the number with rabid fan bases backing their schools every contest. That coupled with the fact that marquee programs always get opponents’ best shots every time on the floor.
Three powerhouse programs that are currently ranked in the top-five of the latest Associated Press poll also maintain solid ATS records. Top-ranked North Carolina is 14-0 SU and 10-3 ATS, going 6-1 ATS at home and 4-2 on the road. The Tar Heels had covered 11 games in a row before opening Atlantic Coast Conference play against Clemson.
North Carolina escaped with an overtime victory as a five-point road ‘chalk,’ 90-88. Ironically, the Clemson Tigers are also on our list of top-ATS teams by going 12-2 SU and 8-3 ATS. The 18th-ranked Tigers are a modest 5-3 ATS at home, but an unblemished 3-0 on the road. Clemson is now 6-1 ATS its last seven outings, with the lone blip occurring in a neutral-court loss to Ole Miss as a three-point favorite, 85-82.
Third-ranked Kansas has stormed out to an impressive 14-0 SU and 8-3-1 ATS ledger, including a solid 7-2 ATS home record. The Jayhawks have faced a tough non-conference schedule, but those games against Arizona, DePaul and Georgia Tech have resulted in losses versus the number. Kansas has covered its last three outings after blowing out Boston College as a 10½-point road ‘chalk,’ 85-60.
Fifth-ranked UCLA is representing the Pac-10 with its 14-1 SU and 8-4-2 ATS record. The Bruins had dropped back-to-back ATS outings earlier this year (Texas and Davidson), but has since gone 4-1 ATS. The lone blip during that period occurred when UCLA was an overwhelming 33½-point home ‘chalk’ over Cal Davis, 76-48.
Closing out the ranked teams with stellar ATS records is the Miami Hurricanes, going 12-1 SU and 7-0 ATS. Miami is 3-0 ATS at home and 4-0 on the road that included a pair of neutral-site games. The 25th-ranked Hurricanes played in four consecutive ‘non-board’ affairs before taking on Pennsylvania and prevailing as a 22-point home favorite, 88-62.
There are five teams that are not ranked and fly under the radar a majority of the time, but they have consistently cashed tickets this season. Drake, out of the Missouri Valley Conference, is the first team on this list by going 10-1 SU and 8-1 ATS, including a 4-0 ATS home mark. The Bulldogs suffered their lone ATS setback in the latest game against Evansville. Drake won that conference clash as a seven-point road favorite, 71-68.
Rhode Island has started the season 14-1 SU and 9-2-1 ATS, winning its last nine games in a row SU while going 6-1 ATS. The Rams toppled Georgia Southern in their last ‘board’ game as a nine-point neutral-court ‘chalk,’ 85-80.
There are also three Western teams flying under the radar that have been solid selections. Montana State (9-5 SU, 9-2-1 ATS), New Mexico (14-2 SU, 9-2-1 ATS) and Pepperdine (5-10 SU, 9-4-1 ATS) have been playing far from the spotlight, but cashing tickets for astute gamblers.
The Waves also prove that you don’t need a winning SU record to succeed ATS. Pepperdine is just 1-6 SU its last seven outings while going 5-1 ATS. All of those matchups occurred on the road.
The Waves had covered five games in a row with its December 21 loss to Manhattan as a 5½-point road underdog, 80-79. However, Pepperdine fell to Memphis in its latest effort SU and ATS as a 29-point road ‘dog, 90-53.
vegasinsider.com.
SEC Notebook
Brian Edwards
SEC play gets started this week, so let’s take a look back at how the 12 schools fared in non-conference play.
Vanderbilt (15-0 straight up, 8-6 against the spread) and Ole Miss (13-0 SU, 5-4 ATS) are the league’s surprises with both squads navigating through November and December in unbeaten fashion. The Commodores haven’t played a murderer’s row by any stretch, but they do own wins over Depaul, Wake Forest and Georgia Tech.
Derrick Byars is gone from last season’s team that was robbed of a trip to the Elite Eight when Georgetown’s Jeff Green got away with a travel before scoring the game-winner. But Vandy still has senior slasher Shan Foster, who leads the SEC in scoring (21.1 points per game). They also have Australian freshman center Andrew Ogilvy, who is scoring 19.3 PPG (second-best in the SEC) and grabbing 7.3 rebounds per game.
As for Andy Kennedy’s second team, it has played a respectable non-conference schedule. The Rebels beat Clemson and Depaul at a tournament in San Juan, P.R. In addition, they have wins over Steve Alford’s 14-2 New Mexico squad and Winthrop, a program that beat Notre Dame in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
Ole Miss is vying to return to the Big Dance for the first time since 2002. Count on it happening this year and becoming a trend. Kennedy has jump-started this program quickly and more help is on the way (Terrance Henry, a four-star committment, will be a freshman next year).
Freshman point guard Chris Warren has been the catalyst this year, leading the team in scoring (15.2 PPG) and assists (5.7 APG). Warren, a product of Dr. Phillips High School in Orlando, has been helped in the backcourt by Florida transfer David Huertas. The sophomore who played on UF's first national-title team is averaging 10.6 PPG.
The Rebels open SEC play Wednesday at red-hot Tennessee, which is a 10-point favorite at most books.
Speaking of the Volunteers, who are No. 7 in this week’s Sweet 16 Rankings, they appear to be the SEC’s most viable Final Four candidate. In his third season in Knoxville, Bruce Pearl continues to work his magic.
Tennessee (12-1 SU, 5-4 ATS) has been especially impressive in its last two outings, road wins at Xavier and Gonzaga. The Vols’ lone loss of the year was against Texas on a neutral court.
The thing Pearl has to be the most pleased about is the fact that senior guard Chris Lofton (14.5 PPG) hasn’t played well, yet the Vols enter SEC action on a seven-game winning streak. Lofton’s scoring average is a career low, as his shooting from the floor (34.4) and 3-point land (33.6).
Tyler Smith, a transfer from Iowa, leads the team in rebounding (5.5), assists (3.5) and steals (2.2). He’s also scoring at a 12.9 PPG clip.
Florida (14-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) is the two-time defending national champion, but Marreese Speights and Walter Hodge are the only holdovers from the title teams. Nevertheless, the Gators won their SEC opener 90-83 at Alabama thanks to 40 combined points from freshman guards Nick Calathes (21) and Jai Lucas (19).
Calathes leads the SEC in assists with 5.7 per game. Speights leads UF in rebounding (7.6) and blocked shots (1.5) and paces the SEC in field-goal percentage (64.3).
UF’s losses have come to Florida St. and Ohio St.
Georgia (8-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) continues to suffer player defections. Junior center Rashaad Singleton quit the team last Thursday and plans to transfer to another Division-I school. Singleton’s playing time has been reduced in recent weeks, but he led the team in blocked shots with 1.7 per game.
Singleton’s departure is the third for UGA since the season started. Mike Mercer, the team’s second-leading scorer last year (13.6 PPG), was dismissed from the team by head coach Dennis Felton. Takais Brown, who led UGA in scoring (14.2 PPG) and rebounding (5.6) last season, was also booted from the program.
This space has gone to bat for Felton many times during his five-year tenure in Athens, lauding him for not taking any short cuts and demanding intensity at the defensive end of the court. However, I have to start questioning his philosophy at this point.
The Dawgs have dealt with too many suspensions and/or player dismissals under Felton. In fact, 13 players haven’t completed their eligibility and six have left the program in the last two years. At some point, the blame has to fall at his feet either for running his ship too tightly or failing to recruit individuals who will adhere to his strict code of conduct.
The bottom line is that the Jim Harrick fiasco can’t be blamed anymore. This is Felton’s fifth team and the Dawgs still haven’t tasted the NCAA Tournament on his watch.
South Carolina (8-6 SU, 5-5 ATS) might have played the toughest non-conference schedule of any SEC school, but the Gamecocks have no excuse for an inexplicable home loss to UNC-Asheville. Dave Odom has two of the league’s premier newcomers in transfers Devan Downey and Zam Frederick.
Downey, who played for Kennedy at Cincinnati after being recruited by Bob Huggins, leads USC in scoring (18.6 PPG), assists (5.4) and steals (3.3). Frederick, who was at Georgia Tech previously, is averaging 16.0 PPG.
Kentucky (6-7 SU, 2-7 ATS) has been a monster disappointment to date. In fact, the Wildcats are in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament for the first time since the probation years that marked the first two seasons of Rick Pitino’s tenure nearly two decades ago.
How bad has it been for Billy Gillispie? The Wildcats lost to San Diego at Rupp Arena and also got clubbed by Louisville at home. They host Vandy this Saturday in their SEC opener.
LSU (7-7 SU, 1-8 ATS) has been the SEC’s best team to fade. John Brady’s bunch is an atrocious 0-5 ATS in ‘chalk’ roles. Junior forward Tasmin Mitchell remains out indefinitely after undergoing ankle surgery in late November.
Arkansas (11-3 SU, 4-5 ATS) has a senior-laden squad that’s been decent – certainly not spectacular – in non-conference action. The Razorbacks have victories against Baylor, Missouri St. and Missouri, but they lost to Appalachian St. as 17-point home favorites.
Mississippi State (9-5 SU, 5-6 ATS) opens SEC play this week with games against LSU and Georgia. Charles Rhodes remains day-to-day with an ankle sprain. Rhodes, who averages 15.6 points and 7.3 rebounds per game, has missed back-to-back games.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--The ‘over’ has hit at a 10-3 clip in Vandy’s last 13 games with a total.
--Tennessee power forward Duke Crews remains out indefinitely with a heart ailment. Crews had been averaging 6.5 points and 4.6 rebounds per game in the Vols’ first eight games.
--South Carolina has failed to cover the spread in three straight games. The Gamecocks are 2-4 ATS as favorites this year.
--The ‘over’ is 5-1 in Kentucky’s last six games.
--The ‘under’ has hit in six straight LSU games with a total.
vegasinsider.com.