NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM
This FREE POWER SYSTEM is from this week's NCAA Football POWERePORT and POWERePLAY. Most teams will be playing their 5th game of the season on Saturday, and there are some unique situations to examine. Our research reveals that teams that followed up a season-opening road loss with 3 home victories have been over-valued when heading back out on the road under certain circumstances. Specifically:
In Game 5, play AGAINST a road team with less than 13 days rest off a home favorite SU win in its last game, 2 home SU wins before that, and a road SU loss in Game 1 vs. an opponent not off a conference road underdog SU & ATS loss.
Here we have teams that played their first game on the road and lost. They then returned home and won 3 straight, including the last as a favorite. Now, without a bye week, they go back on the road. Against opponents not off a SU & ATS loss as a conference road dog, these visitors have had a hard time on the road again, going 0-13 ATS since at least 1980. The mark may be even worse than that, as our database records only go back to 1980. Of the 13 qualifying teams, only those favored by at least 18 points could even escape with the SU win.
This will be the 5th straight year that there's a qualifying game. Last year, Texas A&M opened the season with a loss at Clemson. They then returned home to defeat SMU, Texas State, and Baylor. Next, they went to Colorado as 3-point underdogs and got blasted 41-20. Similarly, California started the 2006 season with a loss at Tennessee. At home for their next 3 games, the Golden Bears beat Minnesota, Portland State, and Arizona State last week as a favorite. They now travel to Corvallis, Oregon to play the Beavers who are coming off a 38-0 home win over Idaho.
These parameters qualify California as the Play AGAINST team for this week's PRO INFO SPORTS NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM.