Michigan -18 at Indiana
It's true, my only loss last week was a bet on the Hoosiers vs Mich St. I put too much stock in their 18 returning starters and their win at Oregon where the Ducks turned the ball over 7 times. a close look at some numbers indicate what a lousy team Indiana is. The Hoosiers have been outgained in every game this season, including a contest vs Central Michigan. The Hoosiers to date are allowing just shy of 6 ypc to opponents on the ground. I see that as a recipe for disaster against Michigan this week. While the Wolverines haven't hit stride with their running game yet this year, it should be noted that in San Diego St and Notre Dame they have played 2 of the top rushing defenses in the land, both allowing less than 3 ypc. In choosing RB Mike Hart to be their featured RB they have a potential star in the making. He played his high school ball in my area ( and almost in Tbone's back yard ) and set records that may never be broken. I look for HC Carr to get back to basics with this team that is searching for an identity and rely on the power running game that has always served Michigan so well. The Wolverines run over the Hoosiers here on their way to an easy cover.
2004 NCAA FB posted plays 8-4
Northwestern +11' vs Ohio State
The winning percentage during the Jim Tressel tenure at OSU has been fantastic. The overall margin of victory has been around 7ppg. The Buckeyes win with defense and field postition and an excellent kicking game. In other words.a lot of their games are very close. The Cats have an experienced QB,and all 5 starters back on the OL. They can move the ball and score points. Their defense has had some problems against the high octane attacks of Ariz St and Minn , but they'll face a team in OSU that will not present those problems. The Cats have covered the last 2 years as dogs to the Buckeyes and I expect another close game here with a chance of an outright win by Northwestern.
San Diego St / UCLA UNDER 47'
A time in the not to distant past probably would have a total in the mid 60's for this game. Both teams have changed their approach and now win games on the defensive side of the ball. In 2003 the Aztecs ranked 8th nationally in overall defense,and the Bruins 18th. Both units return some potential all America candidates. Last years 20-10 UCLA win came in well under the posted total of 42'. I'll try this one UNDER.
Fri/Sat results :
Fri :
New Mexico + 10' LOSER
Lobos never had a prayer
Sat :
Michigan -18 WINNER
Some bad breaks for the Hoosiers and weird calls by the officials helped here, but a win is a win.
Northwestern +11' WINNER ( outright )
This game played out just about like I thought, although a few more points were scored by both teams. Wish I'd had the balls to take the Cats on the $ line.
SD St/UCLA UNDER 47' WINNER
This one sneaks under the total by 4' and there were some scoring opportunities with lots of time left. Fortunate to win here. I was surprised at the Bruins margin of victory in this game.
Fri/Sat 3-1
2004 NCAA FB posted plays 11-5