NCAA Football Saturday Selection
CONNECTICUT -25 over Buffalo
UConn will look to get back on track in a big way on Saturday when they host Buffalo in a non-conference contest. The Bulls come in off a dominating 36-6 home victory over Central Michigan last weekend to end a four-game losing skid. The Huskies are 5-4 overall and just one win away from becoming bowl eligible. Connecticut has dropped its last two games and three of its last four, including a 30-10 setback at Georgia Tech last Saturday. The Huskies have gone an impressive 5-1 SU in games played in the friendly confines of Rentschler Field this season.
Buffalo somehow won by 30 points last week, despite their QB P.J. Piskorik completing just 6-of-17 pass attempts for 122 yards and an interception. One of the worst offensive teams in the nation, running the ball has been one of the few things that Buffalo has been able to do this season, while throwing the ball has been a complete disaster. Piskorik, now the starter behind center, has just 2 TD passes against 7 interceptions and has completed only 50% of his pass attempts. The Bulls have been just as ineffective on defense, giving up over 32 ppg.
In a losing effort last week, UConn QB Dan Orlovsky completed 28-of-49 pass attempts and threw for 205 yards against a tough Georgia Tech defense, but he finished with zero TDs. Despite the poor offensive performance by the Huskies, they are still are averaging 28 ppg and 288 ypg through the air. UConn's defense obviously had a rough outing against the Yellow Jackets, as they have struggled over the past month.
There’s little more this Connecticut team needs to cure its ails than for a pushover like Buffalo to come to town. On Senior Day, Orlovsky should have a field day in his final home appearance before a sold out stadium. The Huskies defense should also be able to easily clamp down on Buffalo’s offense, and will the Bulls horrid passing game they will no ability to mount a comeback once they fall behind, which should be early.
The Bulls will be looking at the future in this contest, although coach Jim Hofher says he would also like to get another victory. When it becomes clear that isn’t going to happen, the young Buffalo players will see time on the field here, which certainly won’t help the effort. In looking at some numbers, Buffalo is just 2-17 ATS when allowing 28+ points, while UConn is a solid 13-3 ATS in the reverse role of scoring 28+ points to create a strong trend dichotomy in the Huskies’ favor. We also note that the Bulls are 1-9 ATS off scoring 30+ points, 1-5 ATS vs. .500%+ opponents off a SU loss, 0-7 ATS off allowing less than 22 points, 0-4 ATS off a SU W since 2001, and 1-7 ATS off a spread win.
With the Huskies needing just one more victory to become eligible for the postseason, there will be no let up here. Add to the fact that the seniors will be playing their final home game, UConn will enjoy a tremendous motivation and emotional edge over a Buffalo team that had their high moment of the season last week and due for a big letdown here. The Huskies have also won seven of the last eight meetings with these visitors, including a 38-7 victory last season at Buffalo. A similar outcome or better for UConn is likely here, as they stampede the Bulls for a SU & ATS win.