NCAA Football STAR SELECTION
Saturday, September 30, 2006
9:00 AM PT/12:00 PM ET
1 STAR SELECTION (2% of Bankroll)
Navy +2½ over CONNECTICUT
In a non-conference clash early on Saturday, the Midshipmen take leave for a game with the Huskies. The Naval Academy had things rolling prior to last week, as they started the season 3-0. Then, they suffered a 24-23 overtime home loss to Tulsa, due to a blocked PAT. The loss actually snapped a 6-game winning streak that dated back to last season, including a bowl win over Colorado State.
Connecticut was the team on the rebound last week, as they went to Indiana for a 14-7 win after their first loss of the season in the prior week. The Middies own a 5-1 SU edge in this series; however, the Huskies won the last meeting, 38-0, at Annapolis in 2002.
Navy is well-known for its option offense that has made them one of the top rushing teams in the nation over the past several years. They enter this game averaging a robust 330 ypg on the ground and have scored 13 rushing TDs. QB Brian Hampton paces the attack and leads the team in rushing. Adam Ballard is the RB who gets the most carries, although he is just 1 of 5 Navy players that have rushed for over 100 yards this season.
Defensively, Navy has proven to be a bit vulnerable in the early going, allowing its opponents to average over 360 total ypg, with the majority of that coming through the air. They should catch a break this week, not facing a top-flight QB.
Connecticut is averaging 26; however, that’s a bit deceiving considering the team scored 52 points a season-opening win over 1-AA Rhode Island. Since that game, UConn's offense has combined for just three touchdowns and 608 total yards. Last weekend in the 14-7 win over Indiana, the Huskies' offense scored just one touchdown and posted only 284 total yards. Terry Caulley led the charge by rushing for 152 yards on 31 totes, but he is not likely to find Navy’s rush defense as porous as the Hoosiers. QB D.J. Hernandez continued to struggle and threw for just 27 yards and two interceptions on 5-of-13 pass in a horrific performance. The coaches were so unhappy with that showing, that they have decided to make a switch to Matt Bonislawski for this week's game, although starting center Keith Gray is done for the season with an injury.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Huskies have played well, holding their foes to just under 13 ppg. Again, the level of competition has been weak, and UConn will now face their biggest challenge of the season.
While Connecticut figures to struggle with a QB change and a new starting center, Navy should keep humming along. The Middies returned 4 of their starting 5 offensive linemen from last season, which has made for a quick start to the season. No doubt, the Huskies returning just 2 starters on the o-line has adversely affected their offense.
Navy has not suffered consecutive SU & ATS losses since Paul Johnson’s first year as head coach in 2002. It was a rough beginning in Annapolis, as the team won its first game and last game of the season, but lost every one in between. It’s been fairly smooth sailing for the Midshipmen since then with 3 straight winning seasons and bowl appearances, winning their last 2.
It was late in the disastrous 2002 season when the Huskies spanked Navy 38-0. Since then, the Middies are 7-0 ATS off a SU loss and not favored by more than 9 points, crushing the spread by nearly 18 ppg on average. Speaking of shutouts, the Naval Academy is 5-0 ATS since 1994 when avenging a whitewash defeat.
We also note in a rare POWER SYSTEM situation, that road underdogs of less than a TD have not forgotten an embarrassing shutout defeat of more than 1 season removed and have been much stronger in the next meeting. Since 1994, such teams are 9-0 ATS, including SU wins in the last 4 qualifying games. Ironically, the most recent example was the Middies home game against Tulsa last week. Navy was the play AGAINST team last week, and lost SU as the small home favorite. Now, they look to turn the tables, as UConn is now the play AGAINST team.
This will be a much stronger team the Huskies face this time. Connecticut enjoyed a 51-17 laugher on the road at the expense of Wake Forest in late 2003 and paid the price a couple of weeks ago, as the Demon Deacons came in and gave the Huskies their first of the season. Now, it’s the Middies turn to avenge their embarrassing home defeat as they grind out a close win in a physical, hard-fought game.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: NAVY 28 CONNECTICUT 23