NCAA Tourney Betting Previews
By: Doug Upstone - StatFox
Our self-proclaimed resident college basketball expert StatFox Doug spent last evening going thru the brackets and came up with these early thoughts on the various contests that will be taking place this upcoming weekend. He broke it down into the two sides of the bracket, with what teams he believes make it to the Sweet Sixteen, along with some fearless predictions to get the NCAA Tournament started. Here is part one.
Midwest Region
The NCAA Committee was willing to forgive Florida for its late season road boredom and proved in last four games why they are the best team in the country. If memory serves me correct the Gators are also in position to become the first team ever to have back to back championships with the same five players that won the previous year. Florida will be a short favorite to win it all, but are not a lock to make it to Atlanta for the Final Four despite the talent. I’d stay away from them in match-up with Jackson State who has one the top scorers in the country in Trey Johnson, who averages 27.1 PPG. The Gators level of interest will certainly be a question mark. Their opponent will not, as Arizona and Purdue match-up in always intriguing 8/9 game. Arizona is thought to be dangerous, but is softer then a baby’s stuffed animal. The Boilermakers will play hard, yet lack the talent to play with Arizona for 40 minutes. Arizona will be fired up in second round match-up, but Florida wins with the power of Joakim Noah and Al Horford.
My first upset, at least by seeds is Old Dominion over Butler. The Bulldogs were only 4-4 and 2-5 ATS to close the season. The Monarchs were surprised by George Mason in Colonial conference semifinals to end 11-game winning streak. ODU got wakeup call and rewards the committee by taking them over Drexel with upset. Maryland had shocking loss to Miami-FL and has to regroup quickly to take on very solid Davidson squad, who was 29-4 and 22-8 ATS. What is especially impressive about the Wildcats is 14-4 ATS mark in all road games. Maryland opened at 7.5-points, I have them by five, thus play Davidson.
Wisconsin has broken the 60-point barrier just once in last six games. They will win first game, however Georgia Tech dispenses of UNLV, then Badgers will be the first higher seed to fall in second round. The Yellow Jackets though the lower seed are favored by two over Lon Kruger’s Rebels, win and cover both games to advance to Sweet Sixteen. Remember Mountain West teams are 5-16 SU in last 21 tournament appearances.
Oregon has rekindled the early season magic and is surely not a Duck out of water with six wins in a row, all covers. What makes Ernie Kent’s team especially difficult is not just the fast paced quick strike offense, it has been the commit to defense in which the last four opponents have shot less then 40 percent combined. What will be the most talked about first round hook-ups is sixth seeded Notre Dame against Winthrop. In my StatFox column a few weeks ago, I stated Winthrop will win first round game. Based on whom they are playing, I’ll back off slightly and say take the Eagles if they are catching more then three points.
Prediction – Florida- Maryland-Georgia Tech-Oregon advance
West Region
Coach Bill Self recent early round woes end with this year’s tournament as this ultra-talented Kansas team marches to San Jose for regional round of sixteen. Either Kentucky or Villanova can hang with the Wildcats for a half of basketball, just not for entire contest. ‘Nova’s Wildcats present the more challenging game because they will slow the game down and play good defense, plus have a very good inside-outside game with Curtis Sumpter and freshman Scottie Reynolds. Villanova could cover if Kansas isn’t sharp since they are 9-6-1 ATS on the road, just not beat them.
In the bottom part of the bracket, don’t think the selection committee didn’t notice Illinois and Southern Illinois could match-up in second round. Not to worry Illini fans, it won’t happen as Virginia Tech takes them out decisively. Illinois has very unreliable guards and might have been the last team invited to the Big Dance. That is why they finished 10-19 ATS. The Hokies have a pair of senior guards in Zabian Dowdell and Jamon Gordon who can score and enough inside strength to negate the Illini up front. The Salukis and Virginia Tech sets up a good coach’s game and I’ll side with Southern Illinois who does a great job at creating tempo. The Hokies prefer to play 94 feet, but because they lost three times to N.C. State, who also runs a patient offense, I’ll take SIU to advance.
UCLA was not hurt badly by dropping to number two seed since they still stay out West. The Bruins will face either Indiana or Gonzaga in next round and based on indifferent performances are not sure fire participants as 3-6 ATS mark in last nine outings proves. All the ESPN talking heads make reference to UCLA’s great defense, is 43.3% allowed great? A shaky vote for the Bruins to advance.
Duke will have its hands full with its lowest seed in a decade. The Blue Demons are average in the backcourt and will be facing a talented trio from Virginia Commonwealth. The Rams have seniors B.A. Walker and Jesse Pellot-Rosa to go along with sophomore Eric Maynor and they easily can match-up with Duke’s backcourt. Duke has edge in frontcourt, particularly if Josh McRoberts doesn’t play passively. If Coach K’s team is 7 or more points, take VCU. Pittsburgh is too big and strong and moves on.
Prediction – Kansas- SIU- UCLA- Pittsburgh advance
NCAA Tourney Betting Previews - Part 2
By: Doug Upstone - StatFox
In the second part of StatFox Doug’s early look ahead into the NCAA Tournament, he investigates the other side of the bracket. Here with the help of his crystal ball he tears apart the East and South regions in search of real value of what teams advance and who might pull the upsets.
East Region
North Carolina will undoubtedly draw a lot of attention in terms of public money to win the whole tournament, however Dick Vitale’s absolute love for the ACC is truer the Brad and Angie’s and he took the Tar Heels to win it all. Roy’s Boys stumbled some late in the season, yet got back on the beam in winning ACC regular season and post-season tournament. Even though only six of the last twenty number one seeds have made it to Final Four, 6 of last 9 champions have won conference tourney. Forget about Tar Heels being threatened by either Michigan State or Marquette, who combined for 10-10 (9-11 ATS) record since February first.
If Arkansas is being made a scapegoat for preventing other supposedly more deserving teams, why are they just a two point underdog to 5th seeded USC? Even though the Hogs may not be a lot of things, the Trojans finished second in the Pac-10 conference tournament and third during the season, yet were 4-5 and allowed 44 percent or greater of all shots made in four of last five games.
Texas and New Mexico State figures to be high scoring affair, more along the lines of a Phoenix Suns game. Longhorns sensation Kevin Durant reputation grows beyond basketball fans and bettors, and into the mainstream after two more astounding showings.
Keep this in mind, Belmont’s nickname is the Bruins and they won Atlantic Sun tournament to earn the right to face Georgetown. This is only important because this about as much information you’ll need on this 2 vs. 15 get-together.
Two points of interest in Boston College and Texas Tech match-up. If the Red Raiders win, the world is lucky enough to hear about Robert Montgomery Knight for two more days and if the Eagles move on, it will be a homecoming of sorts with current Big East Hoyas team taking on old Big East team in B.C.
In looking for first round upset, take a long peek at Oral Roberts and Washington State. The Golden Eagles have a stud inside player in Caleb Green who averages 20.8 PPG and almost ten rebounds. Ken Tutt can fill it up from outside and Oral Roberts scores 72.1 PPG. ORU is 16-3 in 2007 and owns a win at Kansas. Washington State closed 1-5 ATS and last four opponents combined to shoot over 48%. Take the 7.5 points and look at the money line here.
Vanderbilt always has troubles with athletic teams as last four losses prove. (Tennesseee, Miss.State, Arkansas twice) Now the Commodores tackle a George Washington club that is fast, plays furious and can create turnovers in bunches. The Colonials are 8-0 and 7-1 to finish season and have been making free throws down the stretch.
Prediction – UNC- Texas-Georgetown- G. Washington advance
South Region
Ohio State will have to turn up the offense after slugging it out with the Big Ten boys for two months. We are finally starting to see a confident Greg Oden emerge and with it an attitude that makes him even more intimidating in the middle. His offense is more limited then Tyler Hicks vocal range, yet his quickness to snare offensive rebounds and slam the “orange” home is exciting to watch. Pencil the Buckeyes into Sweet 16 over either BYU or Xavier.
Fans of up and down basketball should sign-up for CBS Sportline.com free telecasts just to see Tennessee and Long Beach State. The Vols average 79.7 PPG and the 49ers score even more at 80.3. L.B. State won the Big West and the post season tourney, unfortunately they are defensive frauds. They played a run of the mill Hawaii team at home and were beaten 93-78. Vols move on against Virginia squad. The Cavs depend on a strong backcourt of J.R. Reynolds and Sean Singletary to percolate the offense. Where Virginia falls short against Tennessee is the dynamic duo will sometimes play out of control and make silly turnovers which play right into Bruce Pearl team’s hands, since they depend on the turnover.
Memphis has received undo criticism and now comes in with large chip on their shoulder motivated to prove nay-sayers wrong. The offense averages more than 80 points and opposing teams make just 38.8%. Nevada and Creighton should be the other exceptional first round game. Led by 6-foot-11 All-American Nick Fazekas, Nevada has tremendous balance with Marcelus Kemp inside-outside attack and point guard Ramon Sessions. I really believed the Wolf Pack might make it to regional round depending on draw, now having been set-up against Creighton I’m not so sure. The MVC is much tougher then the WAC and the Blue Jays really match-up well. Creighton’s backcourt of seniors Nate Funk and Nick Porter prevents teams from pressing them and the two are interchangeable playing the 1 or 2 position. Key player is Anthony Tolliver who gives them inside presence and low post scoring. However wins will have chance against Memphis if they control tempo and keep game close. Remember Memphis shoots just 61% from the charity stripe.
Texas A&M had a rare bad game against Oklahoma State and look for them to bounce back with a vengeance. The Louisville and Stanford is another quality contest with, with the Cardinals superior quickness the difference.
Prediction – Ohio State-Tennessee-Nevada-Texas A&M advance