NFL HANDICAPPING TIP #8 – QB ROTATIONS
Today’s NFLX Handicapping Tip is:
Play ON a team that has a big edge with their QB rotation.
Since the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th-stringers will see significant playing time, depth at the quarterback position must be considered. PRO INFO SPORTS especially looks to fade teams that will be playing rookie QBs in the 2nd half, especially in Week 1 when they’ll be seeing their first live NFL action. These young QBs are often late-round picks and undrafted free agents, not the cream of the quarterbacking crop. Their unfamiliarity with the offensive scheme and the speed of NFL defenders often give rookie QBs trouble.
We saw a golden opportunity to take advantage of a QB rotation disparity in 2005 when we made Atlanta a 2 STAR SELECTION as a 2-point home favorite against Baltimore, informing our clients:
“Baltimore usually comes to play every time out, including preseason; however, we are giving the nod to Atlanta here. Besides the momentum and advantage of having played and won an early exhibition game, the Falcons enjoy a big edge here with their QB rotation. Vick has said he feels far more comfortable entering his second season in offensive coordinator Greg Knapp's West Coast offense and Mora said the fluidity and familiarity in the way the first-team offense performed against the Colts Saturday was a good sign. Playing behind Michael Vick gives backup quarterback Matt Schaub few opportunities to contribute during the regular season, so the second-year veteran from Virginia has made the most of his chances in preseason. His showing against the Colts last week was no fluke. Last year Schaub led the NFL with 655 passing yards, 54 completions and six touchdowns in exhibition games.
Meanwhile, Baltimore counters with a rotation of Kyle Boller, Anthony Wright, and rookie Derek Anderson. RB Jamal Lewis will not be in uniform for Baltimore, putting more pressure on Boller. Despite his new weapons and all the coaching talent there to turn him into a decent QB, his showing thus far in camp has not been impressive. Wright has not excelled either. Boller and Wright threw 6 interceptions in a recent practice. Rookie Dererk Anderson is, well, a rookie, and doesn’t figure to have much success in his first NFL outing.
There’s no question that Baltimore will give Atlanta a battle, and could very well play them even for a half. It’s in the second half, where the Falcons advantages should help them pull ahead for a SU & ATS victory.â€
Exactly as predicted, the Ravens played the Falcons even for a half but fell apart in the 3rd and 4th quarters, losing 16-3. Quarterbacking was indeed a big difference, as Baltimore’s signal-callers went a pathetic 13 of 31 for a scant 143 yards, no TDs, and 2 INTs.