NFL Juggernauts and Fading Has Beens
by: Jim Feist
Looking at NFL streaks, one thing stands out. There was only one team with a winning streak over 6 games, the Colts. There were three teams with losing streaks at least that long, with the Rams at 8 and the toothless Lions at 14. The lesson is obvious: It's far more difficult to win in pro football than it is to lose. That's especially true this time of the season, with many teams going through the motions while winding down a lost season.
One only has to look at the play of the Raiders (2-6 ATS run) or Rams (1-5-1 ATS) and see teams that aren't giving 100%. The Raiders are double-digit losers for the sixth straight season. When is Al Davis going to wake up and hire a real GM? "There's guys that are frustrated every game," said one Raider. The Rams lost seven games in a row under Jim Haslett, their second coach of the season, getting outscored 216-73.
On the other side of the coin are teams having great seasons, such as the Giants, Titans, Steelers and Panthers. Players and coaches on these teams largely take their roles seriously and look forward to showing up for work (except Plaxico Burress). One thing to keep in mind is that sometimes teams having dismal seasons will get fired up to face the top teams, especially at home. It can help ease the pain of a disappointing season. Everyone wants a shot at knocking off the best.
The Rams started 0-4 SU/ATS, but in a home game against the talented Cowboys, the Rams won 34-14 as a big dog. Later on they lost back-to-back games to mediocre teams, the 49ers and Bears, by scores of 35-16 and 27-3. Clearly that game against Dallas was their Super Bowl. Everyone's been trying to knock off the defending champs and the Browns did it on national TV, thumping the Giants 35-14 -- a rare bright spot in a tough season.
2007 was unique for powerhouses, with the Packers and Cowboys starting 10-1 and the Patriots going 16-0. You may recall the 4-7 Ravens dominating the 11-0 Pats on Monday night as a +19 dog, playing with fire before a last second 27-24 defeat. The 2007 Eagles failed to make the playoffs or have a winning record, but as a +24 dog they gave the unbeaten Pats all they could handle. New England needed a late TD to survive 31-28. "It was the most complete game we played all year," Eagles LB Omar Gaither said. Offensive lineman Shawn Andrews added, "People built them up to be Goliath. At the same time, a lot of people made us out to be a 24-point spread, and we know they're not that much better than us."
Pro players have pride and know the score. Taking out their frustrations on a powerhouse team is not uncommon and can offer line value. The good teams aren't that much better from year to year than bad ones. Look at the Miami Dolphins, who went 1-15 last season and are still in the postseason race. Parity and the salary cap have leveled the playing field and schedules are longer, all of which makes it that much harder to dominate or go undefeated.
Several teams have come close. The 1962 Green Bay Packers enjoyed a 10-0 start on the way to a 13-1 season, ending in a 16-7 win in the championship game over the Giants as one of Vince Lombardi's best teams. They came close to running the table, except for a surprising Thanksgiving Day loss to Detroit, 26-14 (trailing 26-0 to the fired up Lions).
The 1985 Bears had a powerhouse team behind defensive coordinator Buddy Ryan's 46-defense. They held 11 opponents to 10 points or less and started 12-0 SU, 10-1-1 ATS. They looked unstoppable, until a Monday night game at Miami when Dan Marino passed over the 46-defense as the Dolphins won 38-24. Chicago finished 18-1 SU, 15-3-1 ATS with playoff victories of 21-0, 24-0 and 46-10.
The 2005 Colts started a sizzling 13-0 SU, 9-4-1 ATS until injuries cropped up. In Week 15 they lost 26-17 at home to the Chargers. "It's tough to go 16-0. You have to play well every week," coach Tony Dungy said. Other factors creep in, such as resting players to get primed for the postseason. The next week the Seahawks dominated a depleted Indianapolis team, 28-13, playing without Pro Bowlers Marvin Harrison, Cato June and Bob Sanders, while Peyton Manning played just one quarter. Even NFL David's are gunning for Goliath this time of the season.