Opening line report: Week 3
By STEPHEN NOVER
Just how good are the Buffalo Bills?
The Bills are healthy, unlike last year when they finished with the most players on injured reserve. That makes a difference. Trent Edwards has been solid.
Certainly their special teams are outstanding. Chemistry looks good. The defense is more physical.
But as professional gambler Dave Malinsky said, “The Bills should never be more than a touchdown favorite.”
Bookmakers disagree. The Bills currently are -9 and even up to -9 ½ hosting Oakland.
“They’re over inflated; no doubt about that,” Las Vegas Sports Consultants senior oddsmaker Mike Seba said about the Bills. “No doubt they’re much better than last year.
“They had so many injuries last year and now all those guys are back giving them depth. But look at the teams the Bills have played so far – Seattle and Jacksonville. Both have been decimated with injuries.”
The Raiders have a good rushing attack and their defense can play respectable. However, they have yet to develop any semblance of a passing attack, head coach Lane Kiffin is dead man walking and the Raiders are traveling from the West Coast to the East Coast with an early start time.
“It’s a tough trip for Oakland,” Seba said. “But it’s not a good situation either for the Bills. They could be in a letdown spot.
“It should be a low-scoring defensive type game. I wouldn’t want to be laying nine points in that type of situation.”
It’s weird to see the Bills favored by more than a touchdown and the San Francisco 49ers laying more than a field goal in the same week. That’s the case, though, as the 49ers are -3 ½ hosting Detroit.
The Lions are 31-83 in the Dark Ages era of Matt Millen. They have surrendered 82 points and 921 yards in opening 0-2 with losses to Atlanta and Green Bay at home.
“Detroit is just horrible,” Seba said. “I didn’t like the Lions in the first place and now they have to go on a long trip.”
Old friend Mike Martz will be there to greet the Lions. He was their unsuccessful offensive coordinator before moving on to San Francisco.
“If the 49ers win this game they go to 2-1 and could win the division,” Seba said.
Don’t laugh. Seattle is 0-2 and has been without its three best wideouts and running back Maurice Morris. Luckily the Seahawks host St. Louis. That matchup was the hardest game to make a line on, Seba said. He finally settled on Seattle -9. LVSC send out was -10.
“You’re thinking the Rams are just horrible and maybe making Seattle -11,” Seba said. “Then you see how banged-up Seattle is and you’re thinking no more than -7.
“Yet how is anyone going to back the Rams since they’ve looked so bad. The combination of injuries and the other team looking so bad makes it hard (to put out a line).
“We have five guys making the line, which really helps. It would be real tough to do it yourself.”
Many of the hotels in Nevada are clients of LVSC. They rely on them for their opening lines and advice.
The biggest spreads this week are on the New York Giants laying 13 to the visiting Cincinnati Bengals and the New England Patriots -13 at home to the Miami Dolphins.
It wouldn’t be a shock if both lines got up to -14. Seba is especially down on the Bengals. He made them +13 ½.
“How does Marvin Lewis keep his job?” he said. “The Bengals have no heart or discipline. They’re supposed to be better on defense, but I’m not seeing it.”
Things aren’t good for the Bengals when their defense is better than their offense, which has accounted for one touchdown in two games. Cincinnati’s offensive line continues to get pushed around, its star wideouts might not be healthy and Carson Palmer has thrown three interceptions and no touchdowns.
Still, it would be tempting to take the Bengals at two touchdowns. The Bengals opened at Baltimore against a fierce Ravens defense and this past Sunday went up against a tough Tennessee defense in extreme windy conditions.
The Dolphins have looked terrible, too. Their offensive line isn’t opening holes. Defenses are cheating on weak-armed Chad Pennington just about ignoring Miami’s puny passing attack.
Yet Miami could be a take also if the line reaches Patriots -14. The Dolphins-Patriots have the lowest ‘over/under’ on the Week 3 board at 34 ½.
“I would have to take the Dolphins at +14 just because of the low total,” Seba said.