SEASON NFL: 79-59, +34.2 UNITS!!
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Minnesota @ Tampa Bay 1:00 PM EST
Tampa Bay -7 over Minnesota (4.5 Units)
Tampa Bay/Minnesota Over 36.5 (2 Units)
If you look at Tampa Bay's recent offensive struggles, it's difficult to imagine them covering any spread as a favorite, let alone a seven point one... however, we have many reasons to believe that Tampa will not only win this game, but perhaps turn in their best offensive performance of the season against the Minnesota Vikings...
The Vikings happened to turn in a dominating performance against the Bears last week, but Chicago is a train wreck right now, and the key is that Minnesota was at home... on the road, the Vikings have now lost 14 straight games, 10 of which were decided by double-digit margins... and considering that the Vikings have allowed 32.3 ppg in those contests, any semblance of a defense by the home team in this game will ensure an easy win and cover...
Tampa Bay so happens to have that type of defense, and what has been lost in Tampa's last three games of scoring less than 20 has been the fact that the Bucs have now allowed less than ten points to the opposition in four of their last five games... in their last seven games combined, the Bucs have given up a paltry 59 total points, an average of just over eight points per game.. this dominance on defense has helped ensure that when the Bucs win at home, they do so in convincing fashion... in fact, ten of Tampa's last fifteen home victories have come by double-digit margins, including each of the last four... and believe it or not, the Bucs' lack of offense over the past three games should manifest itself in an offensive output of strong proportions... for after 3 consecutive games of scoring less than 20, the Bucs have responded in the fourth by scoring 23, 24, 28, and a whopping 48 points in their last four games... when playing at home and coming off three games of 20 points or less, the Bucs have scored at least 24 points, and an average of over 31 points, in their last five games...
Tampa Bay has won four straight home games against the Vikings, beating the spread on each occasion by 9.5+ points and an average of 17 points per game... the last two home games against the Vikes have been absolutely laughable, as the Bucs piled up 41 points in each game while allowing no more than 14 points in either contest... and with the home team now a perfect 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS in the last eight games between these teams (including a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS at Tampa), the Bucs look primed to experience another offensive explosion in this one...
The Vikings have had difficuly following up a strong performance, as they are 0-6 ATS off a home win, and 2-9-2 ATS after a double-digit win, including an 0-5 mark in their last five games... as a road dog, Minnesota is a pathetic 4-12 ATS... toss on a 1-7 ATS road mark against teams outside their division (which Tampa now is), and you have all the makings for yet another crushing defeat.. With the Over now 4-1 in the overall series, and 4-0 in Tampa, we will also make a side wager on the total.. but the real play here is the Bucs, who cruise to yet another double-digit win...
FINAL PREDICTION: TAMPA BAY 34, MINNESOTA 10
Pittsburgh @ Cleveland 1:00 PM EST
Pittsburgh -3 over Cleveland (2 Units)
Pittsburgh/Cleveland Over 43 (1 Unit)
NY Jets @ San Diego 4:05 PM EST
NY Jets +7.5 over San Diego (1.5 Units)
NY Jets/San Diego Over 41 (2 Units)
Jacksonville @ NY Giants 8:30 PM EST
Jacksonville +3 over NY Giants (2 Units)
NY Giants/Jacksonville Under 35 (1.5 Units)
St Louis @ Arizona 4:15 PM EST
St Louis -3 over Arizona (1.5 Units)
Dallas @ Detroit 1:00 PM EST
Detroit/Dallas Under 38 (1 Unit)