NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 15
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Cincinnati at San Francisco (+8½)
Why Bengals cover: Have won last two meetings. Rudi Johnson has scored in three straight games. San Francisco has allowed the second-most offensive plays in the league. 49ers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games and 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.
Why 49ers cover: Home team has won four straight meetings. Quarterback Shaun Hill looked better than both Trent Dilfer and Alex Smith and gets to face Cincy’s 26th-ranked pass defense. Bengals are 1-6 ATS versus a team with a losing record.
Total (43): Under is 5-1 in 49ers’ last six home games and 4-1 in Bengals’ last five games overall.
Arizona at New Orleans (-3½)
Why Cardinals Cover: Are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games. Could have receiver Anquan Boldin back from a toe injury. Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last five games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.
Why Saints cover: Aaron Stecker filled in nicely for an injured Reggie Bush with 100 yards rushing. Have won four of their last five road games. Have the NFC’s third-best passing offense.
Total (47½): Over is 4-1 in Saints’ last five vs. NFC and 4-1 in Cardinals’ last five games overall.
Atlanta at Tampa Bay (-13)
Why Falcons cover: Will be inspired to win to spite Bobby Petrino, the team’s former head coach who suddenly resigned on Tuesday. Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
Why Buccaneers cover: Jeff Garcia is probable to return from a back injury. Earnest Graham has six TDs in his last five games and will face the Falcons’ 27th-ranked rush defense. Favorite is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings between these clubs.
Total (39): Over is 4-0 in Falcons’ last four games.
Baltimore at Miami (+3½)
Why Ravens cover: Won’t want to be the only team that loses to Miami. Holding opponents to 2.8 yards per carry, which is tops in the NFL. After losing six of its first 11 games by just three points, Miami has been outscored 78-30 in its last two. Running back Willis McGahee gets to face the worst rushing defense in the league.
Why Dolphins cover: Cleo Lemon replaces the ineffective John Beck at quarterback. Home team has won four of last five meetings. Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Ravens’ cornerbacks are both hampered by injuries. Matt Stover has only attempted four field goals in his last seven games. Ravens have yet to cover on the road this season.
Total (37½): Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Miami and 5-1 in the last six meetings overall.
Buffalo at Cleveland (-5½)
Why Bills cover: Are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games. Have only committed 17 turnovers this season. Buffalo is 5-1 with Trent Edwards as the starting quarterback. Fred Jackson (197 yards in last two games) teams up with Marshawn Lynch for two-headed rushing attack.
Why Browns cover: Are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games. Can clinch a wild-card spot with a win. AFC’s fifth best offense goes up against NFL’s 30th-ranked defense. Jamal Lewis has taken pressure off the passing game with 406 yards rushing and three TDs in his last four games.
Total (44½): AFC’s two worst defenses face off.
Green Bay at St. Louis (+10)
Why Packers cover: Brett Favre has 1,201 yards and 10 TDs in his last five games against the Rams. Ryan Grant has averaged 102.4 rushing yards per game since becoming the featured running back. If Marc Bulger isn’t fully recovered from his concussion, Brock Berlin (60.6 rating) will make his second NFL start. Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings between these teams.
Why Rams cover: Have covered in four of last five games. Have won three of last four meetings with Green Bay and two straight at home. Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.
Total (44): Over is 5-1 in Packers’ last six road games and 4-0 in their last four games overall.
Jacksonville at Pittsburgh (-3½)
Why Jaguars cover: Are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings between these teams. Fred Taylor has rushed for 578 yards and scored five TDs in his last five games against Pittsburgh. Held Willie Parker to 87 yards and no scores in three games. Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
Why Steelers cover: Allow 30 yards less per game than the next best defense and hold opponents to 14.5 points per game. Expected to get Troy Polamalu back from a knee injury. Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. Jaguars will be without star DT Marcus Stroud for the rest of the season.
Total: (37): Under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.
N.Y. Jets at New England (-23½)
Why Jets cover: Jets are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings in New England. Road team is 16-5-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings. After covering in eight straight games to start the season, New England has failed to cover in three of its last five.
Why Patriots cover: Will want to punish Jets for the Spygate scandal that cost them a first-round draft pick. Have won nine of last ten meetings. Favorite is 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine meetings. Jets are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
Total (47): Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
Tennessee at Kansas City (+4)
Why Titans cover: Trying to keep playoff hopes alive. Have 1,736 rushing yards, fourth best in the league. K.C. has the league’s 24th-ranked rush defense. After starting 4-3, Kansas City has lost six straight games and is 1-4 ATS since Larry Johnson suffered his foot injury. If Kolby Smith isn’t healthy enough to play, the Chiefs will be down to fourth-string running back Gilbert Harris.
Why Chiefs cover: Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Titans could be without defensive stud Albert Haynesworth who re-aggravated his hamstring injury last week. Home team has won seven of last 10 meetings. Vince Young has thrown nine interceptions in his last six games.
Total (34): Over is 4-1 in Chiefs’ last five home games.
Seattle at Carolina (+7)
Why Seahawks cover: Are 5-0 ATS in their last five games, winning each time. Shaun Alexander has 195 yards and two scores in two career games against Carolina. Panthers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. Rookie Matt Moore might start at QB for Carolina.
Why Panthers cover: Home team has won all three previous meetings. Seahawks are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as a road favorite.
Total (37½): Under is 4-1 in Panthers last five home games.
Indianapolis at Oakland (+10½)
Why Colts cover: Are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. Can clinch AFC South title with win. Peyton Manning has thrown eight TDs in three career games against Oakland. Raiders have allowed 21 rushing touchdowns, most in the league.
Why Raiders cover: Have won four of the last five meetings. Are fifth in the NFL with 1,705 rushing yards. Have the league’s fifth-best pass defense.
Total (45): Over is 4-0 in Raiders’ last four games.
Detroit at San Diego (-10)
Why Lions cover: Are fighting for their playoff lives. Jon Kitna has thrown 10 touchdowns in his last five games against San Diego. Chargers will be without All-Pro linebacker Shawne Merriman who has a knee injury. Quarterback Philip Rivers’ mobility could be hampered by a knee brace.
Why Chargers cover: Are 4-1 ATS in their last five games. Have won seven of last nine games. In his only game against Detroit, LaDainian Tomlinson had 236 combined yards and two TDs. Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games and 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
Total (45½): Over is 5-1 in Lions last six games overall.
Philadelphia at Dallas (-10)
Why Eagles cover: Are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Dallas. Brian Westbrook totaled 155 yards and a TD in the last meeting between these teams. Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings and has won three of last four. Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
Why Cowboys cover: Can clinch a first-round playoff bye with win. Tony Romo threw for 324 yards and three touchdowns in their last meeting. Have picked off Donovan McNabb five times in last five meetings.
Total (49): Over is 4-1 in Eagles’ last five vs. NFC and 5-1 in Cowboys’ last six games overall.
Washington at N.Y. Giants (-4½)
Why Redskins cover: Need to win to keep playoff hopes alive. Intercepted Eli Manning twice in last meeting. Giants’ defensive starters Antonio Pierce, Gibril Wilson and James Butler are all battling injuries.
Why Giants cover: Need a win to secure wild-card berth. Feared pass rush will pressure immobile QB Todd Collins. Washington only averages 16.7 points on the road. Clinton Portis is averaging 47.5 yards rushing over his last four games. Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. Redskins are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.
Total (36½): Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in New York.
Chicago at Minnesota (-10)
Why Bears cover: Have won five of last eight meetings between these teams. Only lost by three points in first meeting this season. Vikings have allowed the most passing yards in the NFL and have allowed the second-most passing first downs and third-down conversions.
Why Vikings cover: Trying to maintain hold of NFC’s final wild-card spot. RBs Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor meet a Bears defense struggling to stop the run. Chicago will start third-string quarterback Kyle Orton. Home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in Minnesota.
Total (43½): Over is 5-0 in Vikings’ last five home games.