NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 16
Covers.com
Pittsburgh at St. Louis (+9)
Why Steelers cover: Need to win to keep pace with Cleveland in the AFC North. St. Louis has allowed 33 touchdowns and 30 field goals so far this season. Rams are 0-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Why Rams cover: Steven Jackson will get to test a banged-up Pittsburgh defense that gave up 224 yards rushing to Jacksonville last week. In his only game against Pittsburgh, Marc Bulger threw for 375 yards with one TD. Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games and 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
Total (43½): Under is 4-1 in Steelers’ last five road games and 4-1 in their last five games overall.
Dallas at Carolina (+10½)
Why Cowboys cover: Still trying to lock up home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. Have thrown for 35 TDs this season while Carolina has allowed 19 TDs through the air. Won seven of the last eight meetings between these teams.
Why Panthers cover: Still in the playoff hunt. Rookie QB Matt Moore made his first career start and led Carolina to a win over Seattle last week as 7-point underdogs. Tony Romo is dealing with a thumb injury that affects his grip on the ball. Roy Williams might be suspended. Road team is 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight meetings. Underdog is 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine meetings.
Total (43): Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings, 4-1 in the last five in Carolina.
Cleveland at Cincinnati (+3)
Why Browns Cover: Need to win to keep pace with Pittsburgh in the AFC North. Won last meeting 51-45 as 7-point underdogs. Cincinnati has only 20 sacks this season. Favorite is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings.
Why Bengals cover: Have won five of last six meetings. Carson Palmer has thrown for 1,401 yards and 14 TDs in his last five games against Cleveland. Browns have allowed the most offensive yards against them in the NFL and the second most passing touchdowns.
Total (43½): Teams totaled 96 points in last meeting.
Green Bay at Chicago (+9)
Why Packers cover: Still trying to clinch home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. Kyle Orton was shaky in his first game as the new Bears QB last week. Are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 meetings and 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings in Chicago. Road team is 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
Why Bears cover: Won four of the last five meetings including a 27-20 victory in Week 5 at Lambeau Field as 3-point underdogs. Have intercepted Brett Favre 11 times in their last five meetings.
Total (39): Over is 4-0 in Packers’ last four road games and 5-0 in their last five games overall.
Houston at Indianapolis (-7)
Why Texans cover: Are 3-0 ATS with Sage Rosenfels as the starting quarterback. Colts could end up resting starters for part of the game.
Why Colts cover: Won nine of last 10 meetings. Are holding opponents to 4.47 yards per offensive play, best in the league. Peyton Manning has thrown 12 touchdowns and only one interception in his last five games against Houston. Home team is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
Total (44½): Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings and 4-0 in the last four meetings in Indianapolis.
Kansas City at Detroit (-4½)
Why Chiefs cover: Won last four meetings. Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last six games. Jon Kitna has thrown 11 interceptions during Detroit’s current six-game losing streak. There is a chance Larry Johnson could play this week. Detroit has allowed the most first downs in the NFL.
Why Lions cover: Home team has won three of last four meetings. Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games. Kansas City ranks near the bottom of the league in most offensive categories. Are averaging 22 points per game to the Chiefs’ 14.
Total (43): Over is 5-1 in Chiefs’ last six vs. a team with a losing record, and 4-0 in Lions’ last four games overall.
N.Y. Giants at Buffalo (+3)
Why Giants cover: Are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games. Can clinch a playoff birth with win or tie. Bills have one of the worst offenses in the league.
Why Bills cover: Are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. Won five of last seven meetings. Averaging 131.5 yards rushing in their last four games. New York is only averaging 16 points per game in their last five.
Total (32½): Under is 6-0 in Giants’ last six road games and 4-1 in Giants’ last five games overall.
Oakland at Jacksonville (-13)
Why Raiders cover: Have covered in three of last four games. Have only allowed 11 passing touchdowns this season.
Why Jaguars cover: Won last two meetings. Are 6-0 ATS in their last six games. Can clinch a playoff birth with win or tie. Fred Taylor has rushed for 572 yards and three TDs in his last five games. Raiders lost offensive leader Justin Fargas for the season with a sprained MCL.
Total: (38½): Over is 7-0-1 in Jaguars’ last eight games and 4-1 in Raiders’ last five games.
Philadelphia at New Orleans (-3)
Why Eagles cover: Won seven of last nine meetings. Are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Saints. Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Have picked off Drew Brees four times in their last two meetings.
Why Saints cover: Still fighting to make the playoffs. Brees has been on fire with 1,082 yards passing and 10 touchdowns in his last four games. Reggie Bush could return from a knee injury. Aaron Stecker has totaled 248 yards and two TDs in two games while filling in for Bush.
Total (47): Over is 4-0 in Saints’ last four home games.
Atlanta at Arizona (-10½)
Why Falcons cover: Won four straight meetings. Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. NFC. Arizona has allowed 35 touchdowns this season.
Why Cardinals cover: Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last five games and have been outscored 161-53 during that time. Atlanta could be without starting DE John Abraham who suffered knee injury on Sunday.
Total (43½): Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
Tampa Bay at San Francisco (+6)
Why Buccaneers cover: Are 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Jeff Garcia gets to face the team that released him in 2004. Earnest Graham has scored a TD in six straight games.
Why 49ers cover: Shaun Hill has a 98.6 quarterback rating since taking over as the starter. Home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings and has won eight of the last 10. Niners have won last five meetings in San Francisco.
Total (37): Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
Baltimore at Seattle (-10)
Why Ravens cover: Have won last three meetings. Willis McGahee ran for 116 yards and four TDs in his only career game against Seattle.
Why Seahawks cover: Are 5-1 ATS in their last six games. Matt Hasselbeck threw for 333 yards and five TDs in their last meeting. Ravens QB Kyle Boller is day-to-day with a concussion. Ray Lewis will play with a dislocated finger. Ravens are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games.
Total (38): Over is 5-0 in Ravens’ last five games.
N.Y. Jets at Tennessee (-9)
Why Jets cover: Won last three meetings. Have covered in four of last six games. Chad Pennington could return as the starting quarterback if Kellen Clemens can’t go. Vince Young has thrown 10 interceptions in his last seven games.
Why Titans cover: Have AFC’s fourth-best rush defense. Need to win to stay in the playoff race. League’s fourth-best rush offense gets to face the NFL’s 30th-ranked rush defense.
Total (37): Over is 4-1-1 in Titans’ last six games.
Miami at New England (-21½)
Why Dolphins cover: Coming off first win of the season. New England has failed to cover in three games this season with spreads bigger than 19 points. Pats have only covered twice in last six games after covering 11 straight times going back to last season. With nothing left to gain, Patriots could rest their regulars in the second half.
Why Patriots cover: Are still looking to become second team to go undefeated in a season. Tom Brady and Randy Moss are still looking to set NFL records. Home team is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 meetings. Dolphins are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings and 1-6 ATS in their last seven meetings in New England.
Total (45): Over is 8-2 in Patriots’ last 10 home games and 4-1 in Dolphins’ last five vs. AFC East.
Washington at Minnesota (-6½)
Why Redskins cover: After losing four straight, have won two consecutive games covering both times. Need to win to stay in the playoff race. Holding opponents to 15.5 points in their last four games.
Why Vikings cover: Won three of last four meetings. Are 4-1 ATS in their last five games. Can clinch a playoff berth with a win and a Saints loss or tie. Washington is dealing with multiple injuries in many key areas. Holding opponents to 67.6 rushing yards per game.
Total (41): Over is 5-1 in Vikings’ last six home games.
Denver at San Diego (-9)
Why Broncos cover: With both Javon Walker and Brandon Stokley hurting, Brandon Marshall has stepped up his play and has 21 catches, 222 yards receiving and two TDs in his last two games. Jay Cutler has five TDs and zero interceptions in his last two games.
Why Chargers cover: Are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games and 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. LaDainian Tomlinson has scored 10 touchdowns in his last five games against Denver. Broncos are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games. Have picked off opposing quarterbacks 27 times this season.
Total (47): Over is 5-1 in Broncos’ last six road games.