NFL POWER SYSTEM
By: Cajun Sports
Play ON a .550%+ favorite of 4+ points coming off a game where they were outscored in each quarter.
SU: 16-0 (20.5)
ATS: 16-0 (12.0)
EXPLANATION:
Even good teams lose a game here and there in NFL play; however, some losses are harder to swallow than others. When a good team gets thoroughly whipped, they like to do some whipping of their own the next time out.
Getting outscored in each quarter would certainly qualify as “getting whipped”. This means a team got handled in the 1st half of a game went in the locker room, supposedly made adjustments, and then promptly got pounded on again in the 2nd half.
That might be just another day at the office for a bad team, but quality teams with some pride won’t take such an embarrassment easily. The coaching staff will at least make sure of that; therefore, it should come as no surprise that good teams come out very focused in their next game, especially in a game in which they are a clear favorite. They are facing an inferior team and this is their chance to take out some frustrations from their last game.
Our database research reveals specifically when to back such teams. First, we define a “quality” team as one with a winning percentage of at least .550%. Next, we define an embarrassing loss as one in which they were outscored in each quarter. Finally, we define “clear favorite” as being favored by at least 4 points.
Put these 3 simple parameters together and you have a very powerful system on your hands. Such teams are a perfect 16-0 SU & ATS since 1991, winning outright by nearly 3 TDs per game and while covering the spread by a dozen points per game on average. Even heavy favorites have had little trouble covering a big number.
Last season for example, Arizona was coming off a Thanksgiving massacre, losing 48-20, at Philadelphia. The Cardinals limped home, and then started licking their chops when they checked the schedule, as they saw “ST. LOUIS” was next up. Despite being favored by more than 2 TDs, Arizona still easily covered the spread, as they took out some frustrations on the Rams, winning by 24 points, while beating the spread by more than a TD.
These are the kinds of situations that Cajun Sports looks for and typical of the systems that we employ in our selections. Last season Cajun Sports finished #2 in the NFL Totals (Over/Under) Division at the 29th Annual National Handicappers Bowl with a record of 24-13 ATS (65%) +2920 Units and 35-27 ATS (56%) +2170 Units in the Games (Sides) Division. Cajun ended the NFL Season by going 11-5 ATS in the NFL Playoffs winning both the Side and Total in the Super Bowl for +1640 Units overall in the Playoffs.