NFL Preseason Betting Tips
by Robert Ferringo
I always thought that betting on preseason football was strictly for degenerate gamblers. I mean real scumbags; the kind of guys you don't trust with your wife or your kids. The kind of guy who steals from his mother and doesn't comb the food out of his stained mustache. The ragged, the beaten and the depraved were the only ones with the will - only with these poor lost souls it was less will and more glorious obliviousness - to handle a wager that came down to a fourth-and-long with a third-string quarterback just days away from going back to his job as a tax assessor trying to toss a perfect fade to a fourth-string wide receiver destined to be driving a delivery truck the following week. It was a gruesome and reckless way to make a buck, I thought, and the idea sent a shiver down my spine.
In the matter of full disclosure, certain parts of my soul still feel that way about NFL preseason football betting. But ever since I chose to make my career as a professional sports handicapper, a tempter of fate and wizard of mathematics, I've softened my stance on the Bet That Dare Not Speak Its Name. I've come to respect the accessibility of NFL preseason betting and have learned that the money that's paid out for winning wagers on these games has the same color and value as the money that's won during the regular season.
So I'm here today to give you some tips, tricks, indicators, and strategies for betting the NFL Exhibition Season. Again, preseason football wagering is a bit different than how you would approach a regular season bet. But in a lot of ways it's still the same. I mean, they aren't playing jai alai at the two-minute warning or anything. It's football: may the most violent and unrelenting man win.
But we'll save that gibberish for the games that "Really Matter". Instead, here are some NFL Preseason betting tips to key on when you consider placing a wager:
1) Depth
This one is obvious. Squares get so worked up about the starters and skill position players on certain teams during the regular season. But they're the same in the preseason. Teams that can go two- and three-deep at the skill positions have a decided advantage over a club that has a few stars that will be sitting after the first series. A perfect example of that is a team like the Chicago Bears, who have an outstanding No. 2 quarterback in Brian Griese and have a large advantage over a club like Cincinnati, which has a steep drop off from Carson Palmer to Doug Johnson.
Quarterbacks are key. Preseason wagers, just like those during the Real Season, often come down to the last eight minutes of a game. So find teams that have a No. 3 or No. 4 quarterback that has some experience or success in the league. They'll have a tremendous advantage in the closing moments of a game against a third- or fourth-string defense.
2) Experience
I don't necessarily mean which team has the most grizzled veterans on it. In fact, in that category experience can be a detriment. Vets hate preseason games. And teams that have established players in certain positions or roles will often see those guys mail it in during the preseason because they know the games are "meaningless".
However, experience is a key factor when it comes to coaching systems. Organizations that haven't experienced much turnaround have a significant advantage over those that are easing in a new brain trust. For example, Philadelphia has been running Andy Reid's system for years. They're going to be much sharper than their Keystone counterparts, the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are breaking in a new coach, a new offensive coordinator, seven new assistant coaches, and potentially a new defense. Keying on clubs that have familiarity and continuity, and finding clubs that are much less comfortable with their new systems, is a big key for betting on the preseason.
3) Motivation
Each coach handles the preseason differently. Some put a premium on the second game. For some it's the third. Some coaches just dick around and tinker with their lineups during the Fake Games. But here's the key - and this is a big difference between the regular season and preseason football - most coaches are forthright about what the game plan is. Many honchos make it know in the media before the game what their goals and game plans are. This is what I mean about the "accessibility" of preseason info and why that makes it a solid bet.
Further, key position battles can influence the amount of emotion or intensity that a team brings to the field in its exhibition games. Pay close attention to quarterback (Tampa Bay), running back (Minnesota) and linebacker (Houston) competitions.
4) Scheduling
The preseason schedule generally isn't too taxing on the teams and players. But there are quirks. For instance, New Orleans opens the exhibition season with the Hall of Fame Game on Aug. 5. They then come back five days later to host Buffalo on Aug. 10. If some people are a bit banged up then you can expect the Saints to nurse the wounded in that second game. Chicago actually plays three preseason games in 10 days, starting with a Monday night dance with Indianapolis on Aug. 20 and ending with their final tune up against Cleveland on Aug. 30. There's a game against San Fran sandwiched in between, and since Chicago returns 20 of 22 starters you would expect them to have it on cruise control in that 49ers contest.
Also, one favorite angle for bettors is based on the belief that a team that's entering its second exhibition game against a team playing its first has a tremendous edge because they've gotten a lot of the rust and jitters out. I have no empirical data to refute or confirm that suspicion, but I do agree that it's a solid premise.
5) Trends
Hey, you could just kick back and let history do the work for you. Here are some decent numbers that - while I can't fully explain - do appear to have something underlying to them. Kind of like Stonehenge.
(All records are against the spread)
- New England has covered five straight exhibition openers. Buffalo and Tampa Bay are close behind at 4-0 ATS recently. Conversely, Green Bay and San Diego are 1-5 ATS in their first preseason game.
- Dallas and Green Bay are 0-6 against the total in their first preseason game, and the Ravens are 1-7.
- If you were to parlay the 'under' with a bet against Kansas City in Week 2 of the preseason - that means bet on the Chiefs' opponent and the 'under' in that game - you would have won that wager four of the past five seasons.
- Denver is 7-0 in Week 4 of the preseason. Minnesota is 6-1. New Orleans and St. Louis are a combined 2-11.
- When posted as a favorite, Atlanta is 21-13-1 and New England is 20-9 since 1990. Indy is 21-9 as a dog, and the Rams are 13-24 as a puppy.
- Green Bay is 1-11 against a team off back-to-back losses. Seattle is 11-2 as an underdog off a straight-up loss.
Don't ask me where I got these numbers or how I know this stuff. I'm just a god damn degenerate.
www.docsports.com
CAPITALIZING ON SEPTEMBER SUCCESS AND FAILURES IN THE NFL......
For all of us football junkies the season is upon us with our first taste of NFL action in this weekends Hall of Fame game. There will most certainly be some great opportunities to cash in this preseason but the real action will start in September. In the interest of making sure that the start to the regular season is a profitable one I scoured my archives to see where some great opportunities might line in the month of September.
Low and behold, I found some great success as well as some absolute failures that will most certainly be included in my analysis and thoughts when picking winners in September. This identifies the quickest and slowest starters listing the most profitable recent trends (minimum of four) that we can take advantage of when the regular season arrives.
Quick Starters: Atlanta (4-1); Chicago (6-2); Cincinnati (6-0); Jacksonville (8-1); Minnesota (4-0); San Francisco (3-1).
Slow Starters: Arizona (0-6); Carolina (0-4); Dallas (1-3); Detroit (1-3); Green Bay (206); Houston (0-5); NY Giants (1-3); Oakland (1-4); Tampa Bay (1-3).
Keeping these recent trends in mind along with further analysis you will most certainly be on your way to a quick start and a profitable NFL 07!
www.sportsaudioshows.com
BETTING STRATEGIES FOR THE NFL PRESEASON......
By: Michael Alexander
Just two days from now the NFL preseason kicks off with the Hall of Fame game between Pittsburgh and New Orleans. As I have written in past articles, there are certainly opinions on both sides of whether or not betting in the preseason is a waste of time. It is my opinion that with the right strategies, you can absolutely roll in the regular season with a head start to profits.
Obviously the preseason is a far different animal than the regular season from a coaching and strategy perspective. So, if you are to make money this time of year it is critical to understand that you can not handicap these early games the same way that you would a regular season game. If you do, you can count on giving up most of your bankroll before you even start the real action. After years of studying, and winning, with preseason selections I have compiled a list of strategies that have been effective in the past. By keeping these in your betting arsenal you will be on your way to a profitable August.
Strategy #1: It's all about the coaches -- Each coach approaches the preseason differently as some like to win and some could care less. As an example, Denver Coach Mike Shanahan believes it's important to start off winning and thus is 21-6 ATS in game 1. The same goes for the 3 time Super Bowl Champs New England Patriots who are 7-0-1 in game 1. On the flip side the Dallas Cowboys over the years have shown that winning is not important to them as they are only 4-18 ATS in their first preseason game. Another factor to consider is first year head coaches as they typically want to get off to a good start. This season there are 10 new ones so watch out for those matchups.
Strategy #2: Week 2 Motivation -- Although some coaches could care less about winning none of them will put up with a half hearted effort. So in this scenario look for teams who stunk out the joint in their first game to rebound big in their second game especially if it is a nationally televised game.
Strategy #3: All Out Effort in Week #3 -- Week 3 has become the important week to get an idea of each club’s progress. All coaches and players place additional importance on this week, so having a good showing does matter. In this situation look again for teams off of poor showings in week #2, especially if they lost by 10 or more points. As an example, Atlanta took a beating from Green Bay in week #2 (38-10) and they went into Tennessee the following week pounding the Titans by a 20-6 score.
Strategy #4: Be Careful of Week #4 -- It's this week where teams basically are just going through the motions and wanting to keep their regulars healthy for the start of the regular season. Of particular note however, is Green Bay (2-9 ATS) and Philadelphia (3-13 ATS) who seem to care even less than the average.
So there you have it! Four simple strategies that if followed can bring some extra cash to your pockets before the regular season. For those of you who don't have the time to execute and analyze these strategies, join me at Alexandersports.com for winning NFL selections
www.sportsaudioshows.com
NFL Preseason Wagering Strategies
StatFox.com
The NFL exhibition, sorry preseason (I hope Roger Goodell doesn’t suspend me too) gives football fans their first shot at getting back to the game they are so passionate about. The sight of teams putting on the pads and buckling those chinstraps is enough for a fan to want to go and let’s see, how do I put this delicately…wager on a game! Never mind the fact that none of the teams truly care whether they win or lose, covers or don’t, it’s all part of the experience. With that thought in mind, nobody bets to lose, so like any other sports investment plan, it helps to have a strategy, do your homework, and be disciplined in your approach to betting the NFL preseason. This article is designed to map out a game plan of specific tactics that have been successful over the past years.
Obviously the game is different in the preseason. The most important thing to always remember is- NEVER handicap the games using regular season strategies. Some preseason lines may be set by the public’s perception of a team’s chances for regular season, but this only serves to trap the uninformed bettor. Use statistics and trends that represent a team’s or coaches past preseason performances. Anything else is a mistake in my less than humble opinion. At StatFox, we recognize this importance, and that is why we keep our preseason and regular season databases 100% separated. Our game match-ups and FoxSheets products will deal exclusively with preseason facts and figures. If you see statistics elsewhere that don’t employ this strategy, stop IMMEDIATELY, you’re better off flipping a coin! Once you’re comfortable with a place to get your stats and trends from, utilize these following general week-by-week strategies to build your bankroll for the college and pro regular seasons, which will be here in a matter of time.
Pre-Preseason
Just like in the regular season it is important to know your NFL teams. I am not talking about reading hours of information about every given team, rather to know the coaches and the tendencies of the teams. Coaching blunders and superior game plans can alter the outcomes of contests during the regular season. A missed tackle by the opposition or unexpected turnovers can change the final score, no matter what a coach does. In the preseason, a coach can directly impact the scoreboard by substitution patterns and what his goal is for the team beforehand. Throughout the internet or in many preseason publications, interesting fact-based cold data is available for you to learn from. For example, the Dallas Cowboys have proven they could care less about winning in the preseason, instead they are interested in building the team and having it ready for the start of the week one. The Cowboys are 12-28-2 against the spread when favored in the pre-season dating back over 20 years. As Cincinnati has improved over the tutelage of Marvin Lewis, they continue to be a terrible favorite in the preseason with an 8-17-1 ATS record when in this role.
Week 1 - Know your Coaches
This is extremely important if you have a desire to have extra money BEFORE the regular season starts. Be assured all the oddsmakers know these numbers, it is your duty as well if you expect to profit. Denver has always placed an emphasis on starting strong. That is why the Broncos are 21-6 ATS in week one of the preseason. Coach Mike Shanahan likes to create a positive winning atmosphere right from the start as the numbers prove. Another example is the three-time Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots. This team is 7-0-1 ATS the first week, as Coach Bill Belichick wants the hard work of training camp to pay off for the players as an immediate benefit.
The other side of the coin is Dallas, dating back to the Tom Landry days as head coach. The Cowboys never concerned themselves with wins or losses; it is not part of the culture. This explains the 4-18 ATS mark for Dallas when they first suit up against an opposing team in August.
Another important factor is first year coaches. This year we have seven coaches that are taking over new teams. Some are re-treads like Wade Phillips and Cam Cameron, with others taking over the reins for the first time like Oakland’s Lane Kiffen and Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin. After going through grueling training camps, each coach will want to prove to his players that the work has been worth the trouble. Nothing pays off like winning. Historically, these coaches can bring a nice profit, winning five of the last seven years. With so many coaches with new teams it would appear very difficult to make a profit because of the volume of games.
The potential path of least resistance would be to Play On first time head coaches (When not matched against other teams with same circumstance), especially facing veteran or playoff teams. These new head masters will want to make a strong impression and establish credibility. Their job is to show the team who is boss, the direction is correct and the right players will be on board to make it happen. As baseball manager Casey Stengel once said “We’ll win soon, just not with these players.” The contingent of new coaches is still large, yet somewhat more manageable than last season’s huge number of 10 to the coaching fraternity. With Dallas and Miami’s already listed and the Raiders and Steelers mentioned, the rest of the new coaches are in Atlanta, Arizona and San Diego. The last consideration is the team roster itself. The Chargers have nothing to prove based on past performance, meaning new coach Norv Turner just needs to earn the trust of the players.
Week 2 - Be ready to pounce
This is one of the two weeks you can really take advantage of the lines and make large profits with proper preparation. The most important factors this week are prior performance and motivation. These are largely tied together of which you can take advantage. Last year in its first game, Super Bowl runner-up Chicago flew to San Francisco and gave a lame effort in losing to the Niners 28-14 as 1.5-point underdogs. Coach Lovie Smith had stated before the game, not many regulars would see much action and the players trying to make the roster and the rest of the reserves were non-effective in the opener. This presented an outstanding opportunity for bettors to play on Chicago who was coming home off a loss. Smith put the players’ thru the paces of exhausting practices and had them ready to smack somebody hard. On a national TV game against San Diego, who was off a win, the Bears whipped the Chargers 24-3 as 4.5 –point favorites.
Another example was Seattle, which fit this mold. The Seahawks were off a 2005 Super Bowl season and didn’t figure to have a great deal of fire early on. Coach Mike Holmgren is a master manipulator before the regular season commences. The often soft-spoken Holmgren will resemble a rabid animal to get across his point if his team is off a bad effort. In week one last season, the Seahawks played like dogs in opener against Dallas, scoring a measly three points in 13-3 sleeper of game that appeared neither team was interested in winning. Holmgren went into his Dr. Jekyll- Mr. Hyde routine and Seattle played with the passion and fear in 30-17 shellacking of the Colts in Indianapolis. The entire Seattle roster played a complete game from start to finish, which ended up being one of the easiest wins of the preseason for those seeking sharp action.
This time around, be sure to watch for teams that may have put up less than admirable efforts in the first week, and grab those that you feel will be better motivated for week two outing.
Week 3 –Dress Rehearsal
In the past, the last week of the pre-season was the time when teams played the starters at least two-thirds of the game, to give the coaches a real sense of where the team was and if they were on schedule. Because of the number of injuries that occur, Week 3 has become the important week to gauge each club’s progress. Many of the same principles still apply about motivation, with a few variations of note. The coaches and players place additional importance on this week, thus giving a good showing does matter. In the preseason, situational handicapping has relevance, especially for teams losing by 10 or more points the week before. This is noteworthy, with back-ups playing and the games should be fairly evenly matched. Once again coaches will create further accountability through motivational and psychological tactics. In 2006 Atlanta was humbled by Green Bay in week 2, losing 38-10 in a mistake filled game by the Falcons. In reading the Atlanta papers, then coach Jim Mora Jr. made it quite clear another defensive effort of that nature and lack of offensive production was not going to cut it. The Falcons flew up to Tennessee and laid a physical beating on the Titans in a very comfortable 20-6 victory as three point road favorites.
How this works to your advantage is maybe the coach feels the team is coming along too fast and wants to dial it back. We all know coaches are control freaks. Coaches want to build you up to tear you down and vise versa. In the preseason, any coach loves to put the team thru strenuous practices after a weak effort. This is part of the other aspect of analyzing situations, teams off blow-out losses. The players are sick of training camp and played poorly. The coach runs them ragged and the players want the head-man off their backs, thus they respond in a positive manner and win and cover the next game.
Week 4 – Pick your spots and be ready for the regular season
The last week of the preseason is nothing more than final preparation for most teams trying only to avoid injury and making final cuts. This has been particularly true for Green Bay for most of the Brett Favre era with the Packers posting a 2-9 against the spread record. Philadelphia is another team similar to the Pack with a 3-13 ATS mark in the final week of the exhibition season. It is wise to be cautious in your plays the last week. If you are having a winning preseason, a game or two that you really are sure of is worth the risk to find a couple more winners. If you are having a mediocre or below average time in picking winners before the start of the season, save your money for what you care about most, the beginning of the start of the NFL regular season. This is what you have been looking forward to anyways.
Final Thoughts
Take the time to review the box scores in the preseason. Do not do this for traditional reasons as you might believe. Looking at stats and trying to figure out your fantasy team has nothing to do with the preseason games. What this is for is future reference and the next week’s opportunity to cash with productive results. Studying can lead to insights about any team’s depth or possible motivation based on outcome. Every NFL team is going to have injuries. By reviewing the box scores this time of year, you might find a team that has built up 17-0 or 20-3 leads with the first team players in two different games and ends up losing both contests in the 2nd half. This could well be a red flag that when this team has injuries during the 16-game season, the drop-off will be precipitous.
Don’t handicap the pre-season the same as the regular season. These are truly two completely different animals. StatFox and the FoxSheets provide more than enough information for you to study and give you a great opportunity to win. Don’t over-analyze these ideas, keep it simple. If you are going to watch these games, focus on Week 3, when it matters more to a certain degree. Most importantly, have fun and enjoy the fact that you are that much closer to September 6th, the kickoff of the regular season.
NFL Betting News: NFC North Preseason Preview
Let me start off by saying that I feel the NFL preseason is a great opportunity to start and build a nice bankroll for the upcoming regular season. Many handicappers have the opinion that the preseason games should be left alone and not bet on. I feel just the opposite. If you do your homework the preseason games offer the betting public a tremendous chance to make a ton of money.
In the preseason, many head coaches have a track record of wanting to win and some just don’t care and are just preparing for the regular season. You can find many games this preseason where you can get a definite edge. Below I have put together a list of all 32 teams with a breakdown of things to look for this preseason that will give you that winning advantage.
A very important thing to remember for this upcoming preseason is that there will be 7 new head coaches this season, so previous preseason trends for these teams are no longer valid. However I have found some nice hidden trends that can still show us a profit with these teams.
Here are the 7 teams with new head coaches for the upcoming season:
Arizona - Ken Whisenhunt
Atlanta - Bobby Petrino
Dallas - Wade Phillips
Miami - Cam Cameron
Oakland - Lane Kiffin
Pittsburgh - Mike Tomlin
San Diego - Norv Turner
NFC North
Chicago – In Lovie Smith’s three seasons as Chicago head coach the Bears are just a .500 team against the spread. However a trend has definitely developed in the preseason in the 13 games the Bears have played, nine of them have stayed 'under' the total. A possible 'under' play this preseason is on August 30th when the Bears play Cleveland on the road. The Browns have seen the 'under' go 4-0 in their last preseason game of the year the past 4 years which 3 of these were against the Bears.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Rex Grossman, Brian Griese, Kyle Orton, Chris Leak.
Detroit – Last year I told you that that the Lions head coach Marinelli has been the defensive line and assistant head coach for Tampa Bay the past 10 years. He helped put together the awesome Buccaneers defensive units of the past. With him emphasizing defense and toughness, playing Detroit 'under' this preseason might be the way to go. Well the Lions saw the under go 3-1 in their preseason games last year. I see no reason why this trend won’t continue this preseason making the under a strong play for this year.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Jon Kitna, Dan Orlovsky, and Drew Stanton
Green Bay – In his first year as head coach of the Packers Mike McCarthy showed no signs of being interested in winning preseason games as Green Bay went 1-3 against the spread last year. The Packers have also been blown out in their last 2 dress rehearsal game being outscored 75-20. With a very poor quarterback rotation in place for this year look for the Green Bay preseason woes to continue this year.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Brett Favre, Aaron Rogers, Ingle Martin, Paul Thompson
Minnesota – Brad Childress in his first year as the Vikings head coach played it very conservative in the preseason as Minnesota saw 3 of their 4 games go under the total. With a very poor quarterback rotation in place for this year look for this trend of low scoring preseason games to continue again this year.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Tarvaris Jackson, Brooks Bollinger, Drew Henson, Tyler Thigpen
www.sportsaudioshows.com
NFL Betting News: NFC East Preseason Preview
Let me start off by saying that I feel the NFL preseason is a great opportunity to start and build a nice bankroll for the upcoming regular season. Many handicappers have the opinion that the preseason games should be left alone and not bet on. I feel just the opposite. If you do your homework the preseason games offer the betting public a tremendous chance to make a ton of money.
In the preseason, many head coaches have a track record of wanting to win and some just don’t care and are just preparing for the regular season. You can find many games this preseason where you can get a definite edge. Below I have put together a list of all 32 teams with a breakdown of things to look for this preseason that will give you that winning advantage.
A very important thing to remember for this upcoming preseason is that there will be 7 new head coaches this season, so previous preseason trends for these teams are no longer valid. However I have found some nice hidden trends that can still show us a profit with these teams.
Here are the 7 teams with new head coaches for the upcoming season:
Arizona - Ken Whisenhunt
Atlanta - Bobby Petrino
Dallas - Wade Phillips
Miami - Cam Cameron
Oakland - Lane Kiffin
Pittsburgh - Mike Tomlin
San Diego - Norv Turner
NFC East
Dallas – Wade Phillips takes over as the Cowboys new head coach. Phillips is the perfect fit to take over Bill Parcells 3-4 defense as he has been the Chargers defensive coordinator the past 3 seasons. So I look for the Cowboys to be concentrating on defense this preseason which will lead to a bunch of low scoring games this year.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Tony Romo, Brad Johnson, Matt Baker, Richard Bartel
New York Giants – Under head coach Tom Coughlin the Giants have shown some strong trends over the past 2 years. First the Giants have won and covered 7 straight preseason games which includes 4 outright wins as a dog. Plus the under has been the right side in 6 of the Giants last 8 preseason games. With Coughlin’s job in jeopardy as this season begins I would look for another big preseason from the Giant’s this year.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Eli Manning, Jared Lorenzen. Tim Hasselbeck, Anthony Wright
Philadelphia – Andy Reid and the Eagles show no trends that we can take advantage of going 11-10 in the preseason over the last five years. However Reid doesn’t care about playing defense in the Eagles last preseason game of the year as the over has been the right side in 4 of the last 5 years.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Donovan McNabb ???, AJ Feeley, Kelly Holcomb, Kelvin Kolb
Washington – In Joe Gibbs' last two years as head coach of the Redskins it is become apparent that the Redskins preseason games don’t mean anything to Gibb’s as Washington has gone 1-7 both straight up and against the spread. Can’t see anything changing this strong trend coming into this year.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Mark Brunell, Jason Campbell, Todd Collins, Jordan Palmer
www.sportsaudioshows.com
NFL Preseason Wagering Strategies
The NFL exhibition, sorry preseason (I hope Roger Goodell doesn’t suspend me too) gives football fans their first shot at getting back to the game they are so passionate about. The sight of teams putting on the pads and buckling those chinstraps is enough for a fan to want to go and let’s see, how do I put this delicately…wager on a game!
Never mind the fact that none of the teams truly care whether they win or lose, covers or don’t, it’s all part of the experience. With that thought in mind, nobody bets to lose, so like any other sports investment plan, it helps to have a strategy, do your homework, and be disciplined in your approach to betting the NFL preseason. This article is designed to map out a game plan of specific tactics that have been successful over the past years.
Obviously the game is different in the preseason. The most important thing to always remember is- NEVER handicap the games using regular season strategies. Some preseason lines may be set by the public’s perception of a team’s chances for regular season, but this only serves to trap the uninformed bettor. Use statistics and trends that represent a team’s or coaches past preseason performances. Anything else is a mistake in my less than humble opinion. At StatFox, we recognize this importance, and that is why we keep our preseason and regular season databases 100% separated. Our game match-ups and FoxSheets products will deal exclusively with preseason facts and figures. If you see statistics elsewhere that don’t employ this strategy, stop IMMEDIATELY, you’re better off flipping a coin! Once you’re comfortable with a place to get your stats and trends from, utilize these following general week-by-week strategies to build your bankroll for the college and pro regular seasons, which will be here in a matter of time.
Pre-Preseason
Just like in the regular season it is important to know your NFL teams. I am not talking about reading hours of information about every given team, rather to know the coaches and the tendencies of the teams. Coaching blunders and superior game plans can alter the outcomes of contests during the regular season. A missed tackle by the opposition or unexpected turnovers can change the final score, no matter what a coach does. In the preseason, a coach can directly impact the scoreboard by substitution patterns and what his goal is for the team beforehand. Throughout the internet or in many preseason publications, interesting fact-based cold data is available for you to learn from. For example, the Dallas Cowboys have proven they could care less about winning in the preseason, instead they are interested in building the team and having it ready for the start of the week one. The Cowboys are 12-28-2 against the spread when favored in the pre-season dating back over 20 years. As Cincinnati has improved over the tutelage of Marvin Lewis, they continue to be a terrible favorite in the preseason with an 8-17-1 ATS record when in this role.
Week 1 - Know your Coaches
This is extremely important if you have a desire to have extra money BEFORE the regular season starts. Be assured all the oddsmakers know these numbers, it is your duty as well if you expect to profit. Denver has always placed an emphasis on starting strong. That is why the Broncos are 21-6 ATS in week one of the preseason. Coach Mike Shanahan likes to create a positive winning atmosphere right from the start as the numbers prove. Another example is the three-time Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots. This team is 7-0-1 ATS the first week, as Coach Bill Belichick wants the hard work of training camp to pay off for the players as an immediate benefit.
The other side of the coin is Dallas, dating back to the Tom Landry days as head coach. The Cowboys never concerned themselves with wins or losses; it is not part of the culture. This explains the 4-18 ATS mark for Dallas when they first suit up against an opposing team in August.
Another important factor is first year coaches. This year we have seven coaches that are taking over new teams. Some are re-treads like Wade Phillips and Cam Cameron, with others taking over the reins for the first time like Oakland’s Lane Kiffen and Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin. After going through grueling training camps, each coach will want to prove to his players that the work has been worth the trouble. Nothing pays off like winning. Historically, these coaches can bring a nice profit, winning five of the last seven years. With so many coaches with new teams it would appear very difficult to make a profit because of the volume of games.
The potential path of least resistance would be to Play On first time head coaches (When not matched against other teams with same circumstance), especially facing veteran or playoff teams. These new head masters will want to make a strong impression and establish credibility. Their job is to show the team who is boss, the direction is correct and the right players will be on board to make it happen. As baseball manager Casey Stengel once said “We’ll win soon, just not with these players.” The contingent of new coaches is still large, yet somewhat more manageable than last season’s huge number of 10 to the coaching fraternity. With Dallas and Miami’s already listed and the Raiders and Steelers mentioned, the rest of the new coaches are in Atlanta, Arizona and San Diego. The last consideration is the team roster itself. The Chargers have nothing to prove based on past performance, meaning new coach Norv Turner just needs to earn the trust of the players.
Week 2 - Be ready to pounce
This is one of the two weeks you can really take advantage of the lines and make large profits with proper preparation. The most important factors this week are prior performance and motivation. These are largely tied together of which you can take advantage. Last year in its first game, Super Bowl runner-up Chicago flew to San Francisco and gave a lame effort in losing to the Niners 28-14 as 1.5-point underdogs. Coach Lovie Smith had stated before the game, not many regulars would see much action and the players trying to make the roster and the rest of the reserves were non-effective in the opener. This presented an outstanding opportunity for bettors to play on Chicago who was coming home off a loss. Smith put the players’ thru the paces of exhausting practices and had them ready to smack somebody hard. On a national TV game against San Diego, who was off a win, the Bears whipped the Chargers 24-3 as 4.5 –point favorites.
Another example was Seattle, which fit this mold. The Seahawks were off a 2005 Super Bowl season and didn’t figure to have a great deal of fire early on. Coach Mike Holmgren is a master manipulator before the regular season commences. The often soft-spoken Holmgren will resemble a rabid animal to get across his point if his team is off a bad effort. In week one last season, the Seahawks played like dogs in opener against Dallas, scoring a measly three points in 13-3 sleeper of game that appeared neither team was interested in winning. Holmgren went into his Dr. Jekyll- Mr. Hyde routine and Seattle played with the passion and fear in 30-17 shellacking of the Colts in Indianapolis. The entire Seattle roster played a complete game from start to finish, which ended up being one of the easiest wins of the preseason for those seeking sharp action.
This time around, be sure to watch for teams that may have put up less than admirable efforts in the first week, and grab those that you feel will be better motivated for week two outing.
Week 3 –Dress Rehearsal
In the past, the last week of the pre-season was the time when teams played the starters at least two-thirds of the game, to give the coaches a real sense of where the team was and if they were on schedule. Because of the number of injuries that occur, Week 3 has become the important week to gauge each club’s progress. Many of the same principles still apply about motivation, with a few variations of note. The coaches and players place additional importance on this week, thus giving a good showing does matter. In the preseason, situational handicapping has relevance, especially for teams losing by 10 or more points the week before. This is noteworthy, with back-ups playing and the games should be fairly evenly matched. Once again coaches will create further accountability through motivational and psychological tactics. In 2006 Atlanta was humbled by Green Bay in week 2, losing 38-10 in a mistake filled game by the Falcons. In reading the Atlanta papers, then coach Jim Mora Jr. made it quite clear another defensive effort of that nature and lack of offensive production was not going to cut it. The Falcons flew up to Tennessee and laid a physical beating on the Titans in a very comfortable 20-6 victory as three point road favorites.
How this works to your advantage is maybe the coach feels the team is coming along too fast and wants to dial it back. We all know coaches are control freaks. Coaches want to build you up to tear you down and vise versa. In the preseason, any coach loves to put the team thru strenuous practices after a weak effort. This is part of the other aspect of analyzing situations, teams off blow-out losses. The players are sick of training camp and played poorly. The coach runs them ragged and the players want the head-man off their backs, thus they respond in a positive manner and win and cover the next game.
Week 4 – Pick your spots and be ready for the regular season
The last week of the preseason is nothing more than final preparation for most teams trying only to avoid injury and making final cuts. This has been particularly true for Green Bay for most of the Brett Favre era with the Packers posting a 2-9 against the spread record. Philadelphia is another team similar to the Pack with a 3-13 ATS mark in the final week of the exhibition season. It is wise to be cautious in your plays the last week. If you are having a winning preseason, a game or two that you really are sure of is worth the risk to find a couple more winners. If you are having a mediocre or below average time in picking winners before the start of the season, save your money for what you care about most, the beginning of the start of the NFL regular season. This is what you have been looking forward to anyways.
Final Thoughts
Take the time to review the box scores in the preseason. Do not do this for traditional reasons as you might believe. Looking at stats and trying to figure out your fantasy team has nothing to do with the preseason games. What this is for is future reference and the next week’s opportunity to cash with productive results. Studying can lead to insights about any team’s depth or possible motivation based on outcome. Every NFL team is going to have injuries. By reviewing the box scores this time of year, you might find a team that has built up 17-0 or 20-3 leads with the first team players in two different games and ends up losing both contests in the 2nd half. This could well be a red flag that when this team has injuries during the 16-game season, the drop-off will be precipitous.
Don’t handicap the pre-season the same as the regular season. These are truly two completely different animals. StatFox and the FoxSheets provide more than enough information for you to study and give you a great opportunity to win. Don’t over-analyze these ideas, keep it simple. If you are going to watch these games, focus on Week 3, when it matters more to a certain degree. Most importantly, have fun and enjoy the fact that you are that much closer to September 6th, the kickoff of the regular season.
NFL training camp betting notes
By ASHTON GREWAL
Problems for Peyton and Company?
The Indianapolis Colts are the defending Super Bowl champions and one of the favorites to win the trophy again. But training camp is not being kind to the club.
All-Pro left tackle Tarik Glenn retired leaving Peyton Manning’s blind side in the hands of rookie Tony Ugoh. Manning has been giving the second-round pick from Arkansas University a crash course in the Colts offense.
Manning wants to be sure Ugoh is prepared for an audible at any time during a game, something the quarterback has embedded in the Colts offense.
Meanwhile, bodies on the defensive line are dropping like flies. Management cut ties with former Pro Bowl defensive tackle Corey Simon last week and there are now reports DT Anthony McFarland may be done for the year with a torn patella tendon.
Simon did not play all of last season due to injury, but McFarland was an important piece after being picked up at the trade deadline from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He helped solve Indianapolis’ rushing defense problem in the playoffs.
Oddsmakers are listing the Colts as 4 ½-point underdogs for Thursday’s preseason tilt with the Dallas Cowboys.
Niners expected about new acquisitions
The San Francisco 49ers were one of the biggest players during free agency, signing four key defensive starters. Cornerback Nate Clements, nose tackle Aubrayo Franklin, outside linebacker Tully Banta-Cain and strong safety Michael Lewis were all brought over in hopes of improving a unit that finished 26th in total defense.
“Everything is meshing pretty good with the addition of those guys,” veteran defensive lineman Bryant Young told the San Francisco Chronicle. “It truly upgrades our defense. We’re making an identity on defense and we have to define that. I’m excited to work with the guys we acquired.”
Getting new personnel on the D-side was essential to aid the change to a 3-4 front. Head coach Mike Nolan says the new players should be a good fit in the new system and the feeling is mutual.
“I feel we’ve got the potential to be one of the best in the league,” Lewis said. “We’re growing together. We’re out there flying around. I’m excited.”
Niner fans will get a chance to see the new additions Monday when the 49ers host the Denver Broncos. Books have San Francisco listed as 2 ½-point favorites with the total set at 35 ½.
Take it easy
Dallas head coach Wade Phillips certainly has a different philosophy on training camp than predecessor Bill Parcells. Terrell Owens and Parcells’ relationship got off to a rocky start because of Owens' inability to practice due to injuries early last year.
Hamstrings and a sore back are giving Owens trouble this year, but unlike last season he’s not getting any grief from the coaching staff for missing two practices last week and another on Sunday.
“It’s nothing structural,” Cowboys owner Jerry Jones told the Dallas Morning News. “He has a tight back. We all know with lower back (pain), the best thing to do is not to stand up. Overall, it’s not something serious.”
The 34-year-old isn’t the only banged-up offensive star on the club. Starting receiving partner Terry Glenn had his knee scoped and won’t be back until mid-August.
Kenny the Jet
Second-round pick Kenny Irons is turning some heads with his performances at the Cincinnati Bengals training camp. The rookie back is breaking some long runs in scrimmage, something the offense hasn’t seen with bruising tailback Rudi Johnson carrying the football.
“He looks great,” starting quarterback Carson Palmer told the Cincinnati Enquirer. “He made a couple of real nice runs tonight. He showed some quickness and speed on the outside, and he’s going to be an exciting guy for us.”
If Irons wins the backup RB job he should give the Bengals offense a nice change of pace from Johnson, who’s strength is running over people rather than away from them.
The Bengals are 2-point underdogs for Thursday’s matchup with the Detroit Lions at Ford Field with the total listed at 34 ½.
Covers.com
NFL Betting News: NFC South Preseason Preview
By: Tony Stoffo
Let me start off by saying that I feel the NFL preseason is a great opportunity to start and build a nice bankroll for the upcoming regular season. Many handicappers have the opinion that the preseason games should be left alone and not bet on. I feel just the opposite. If you do your homework the preseason games offer the betting public a tremendous chance to make a ton of money.
In the preseason, many head coaches have a track record of wanting to win and some just don’t care and are just preparing for the regular season. You can find many games this preseason where you can get a definite edge. Below I have put together a list of all 32 teams with a breakdown of things to look for this preseason that will give you that winning advantage.
A very important thing to remember for this upcoming preseason is that there will be 7 new head coaches this season, so previous preseason trends for these teams are no longer valid. However I have found some nice hidden trends that can still show us a profit with these teams.
Here are the 7 teams with new head coaches for the upcoming season:
Arizona - Ken Whisenhunt
Atlanta - Bobby Petrino
Dallas - Wade Phillips
Miami - Cam Cameron
Oakland - Lane Kiffin
Pittsburgh - Mike Tomlin
San Diego - Norv Turner
NFC South
Atlanta – The offensive minded Bobby Petrino of Louisville has been named the new head coach of the Falcons. However Atlanta has retained both their offensive and defensive coordinators from a year ago. So a very strong preseason trend should continue to show a profit for this year. In their 'dress rehearsal' game the last three years the Falcons have gone 3-0 outscoring their opposition 80-23 This year’s 'dress rehearsal' game for the Falcons will be on August 27th when they play Cincinnati at home,
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Joey Harrington, D.J. Shockley, Chris Redman
Carolina – The Panthers played it close to the vest last year with all 4 of their preseason games going under the total. With Carolina having to play the Giants, Eagles, Patriots, and Steelers this year look for this trend of low scoring games to continue this preseason.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Jake Delhomme, David Carr, Brett Basanez.
New Orleans –Off of last years preseason results it is obvious that Sean Payton does not really care about winning preseason games as the Saints lost 3 of their 4 games. What really verifies this is the game the Saints played against the Cowboys in week # 2 of the preseason where they lost 30-7, and remember the Saints came back in the regular season and blew away the Cowboys in Dallas. With the Saints playing the extra game this preseason I would make a strong play against them in their first preseason game against the Steelers.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Drew Bees, Jamie Martin, Jason Fife, Tyler Palko
Tampa Bay – The Buccaneers have one of the top preseason trends that we look forward to every year. Tampa Bay has been a perfect 5-0 in their opening preseason game the last five years. I look for this trend to easily continue this year with the great quarterback rotation that the Buccaneers have this preseason.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Chris Simms, Jeff Garcia, Bruce Gradkowski, Luke McCown
www.sportsaudioshows.com
NFL PRESEASON TRENDS TO WATCH
ARIZONA...Denny Green’s Cardinals generally fared better in the preseason than they did in regular season, covering 7 of their last 10 exhibition games the past few years. We’ll see how new HC Ken Whisenhunt (ex-Steelers o.c.) fares, and if he incorporates some of the lower-key characteristics of Bill Cowher’s recent preseasons in Pittsburgh.
ATLANTA...With all of the hoopla surrounding QB Michael Vick’s suspension, the new regime of rookie HC Bobby Petrino has been somewhat overlooked. But Vick’s absence might not be as harmful in preseason as that of recent backup Matt Schaub, who moved to Houston. The Vick-Schaub combo resulted in a 6-3 SU and 5-3-1 preason spread mark the last two years for the departed Jim Mora, Jr. This year, it’s journeyman Joey Harrington and untested ex-Georgia Bulldog D.J. Shockley getting the majority of snaps. Stay tuned.
BALTIMORE...Over his eight seasons in charge of the Ravens, HC Brian Billick has posted some impressive preseason numbers (19-12 overall; 11-7 as a dog; 10-6 away; 6-2 after a straight-up loss), although Baltimore’s marks have been rather ordinary the past two seasons (just 2-2 vs. the line in both ‘05 and ‘06).
BUFFALO...Interesting pattern last year under HC Dick Jauron, his first season in Buffalo. Bills lost and failed to cover both chances as home chalk, but covered both of their tries as a road underdog. Failing as a preseason favorite is nothing new for Jauron, who also failed to cover his last five as pick or chalk while coaching Chicago earlier in the decade.
CAROLINA..A potent preseason force in the past under HC John Fox, once winning and covering 10 straight in exhibition play between 2002-05, although the Panthers have since covered only 2 of 7. Note “unders” in all four preseason tilts last season. QB work figures to be solid with vet David Carr arriving from Houston to compete with holdover Jake Delhomme.
CHICAGO...Nothing remarkable about Chicago’s preseason exploits since Lovie Smith assumed command in 2004, with modest 7-6 SU and 6-6-1 spread marks the past three seasons. Lovie’s Bears were also 9-4 “under” in those exhibition games between ‘04-06.
CINCINNATI...Can the Bengals repeat their performance from last preseason, when they won and covered all 4 of their games in resounding fashion? Dating back to the end of ‘05 exhibition play, Cincy has won and covered five straight in preseason, with a hefty winning margin of 23 ppg! Still, nothing prior to last year suggested HC Marvin Lewis puts a premium on winning these early affairs (he was 5-7 vs. the line his first three preseasons with the Bengals).
CLEVELAND...We can’t say that HC Romeo Crennel takes exhibition results lightly, especially if his first two seasons in charge of the Brownies are any indication. Crennel’s bunch is 6-2 vs. the line since ‘05, including 5-1 receiving points, and 3-1 as host.
DALLAS...After Bill Parcells’ notorious emphasis on succeeding in preseason (he was 6-2 SU and vs. the line the past two seasons), will the Cowboys approach exhibition play with the same verve under Wade Phillips? We’ll see. But it’s worth noting that in Phillips’ last preseason head coaching assignment, in Buffalo, his Bills were 6-1 vs. the line as a dog and 7-1 on the road during 1998-2000.
DENVER...The Broncos have long been a reliable preseason performer under HC Mike Shanahan, who, unlike many other coaches, has not been afraid to experiment aggressively with his playbook in exhibition play. To wit: since 2000, Shanahan’s Broncos are 18-8-1 overall vs. the number in preseason; 10-3 on the road; 10-5-1 when favored by more than 3, 4-1-1 after a straight-up loss, and 6-1 in preseason finales. They’ve also covered 7 of their last 8 as an exhibition dog. And only once in the past 7 years has Shanahan finished sub-.500 vs. the number in preseason play (2-3 in 2004).
DETROIT...A consistent underachiever in recent preseason play, with 1-3 spread marks in each of the last three exhibition slates. HC Rod Marinelli is responsible for only one of those (2006), however. The Lions have also covered just 1 of their last 8 on the preseason road since 2003!
GREEN BAY...The Packers were smoked in losing 3 of 4 both SU and vs. the line last preseason under HC Mike McCarthy. With Brett Favre often a bystander for much of exhibition play, we’ll see how far along backup Aaron Rodgers is in his quest to become the heir apparent at Lambeau Field. Note that the Pack had gone “under” a remarkable 11 straight preseason games dating to ‘03 before going “over” the last 3 in ‘06.
HOUSTON...Perhaps taking a cue from longtime mentor Mike Shanahan in Denver, Gary Kubiak’s first Texans team made a point to look sharp last preseason, winning 3 of 4 and standing 3-0-1 vs. the number.
INDIANAPOLIS...Tony Dungy has not put a lot of emphasis on winning in the past two preseasons, covering just 2 of 9 chances, although it should be noted that a particularly wretched ‘05 campaign (when the Colts didn’t cover any of their five exhibition chances) drags down the number. They’ve mostly kept their potent offense under wraps in preseason, too, scoring 17 or fewer in 6 of 9 exhibitions the past two years.
JACKSONVILLE...HC Jack Del Rio’s Jags have developed a noteworthy positive pattern in recent preseasons, recording a 7-2 spread mark as a dog, and 6-2 on the road (although just 4-4 vs. the points at Alltel Stadium).
KANSAS CITY...Historically, HC Herm Edwards’ teams have proven a potent preseason pointspread force. More specifically, his Jets teams between 2001-05 went 15-6 SU and 14-7 vs. the line in exhibition play. But note that his first preseason in Kansas City was rather non-descript (2-2 vs. line).
MIAMI...This is Cam Cameron’s first shot as an NFL head coach, and we’ll see if he approaches the preseason as Marty Schottenheimer, under whom Cam worked the past few years in San Diego (Marty’s Bolts were decidedly average exhibition performers the past few years, splitting the spread decisions in each of the past three preseasons). For what it’s worth, Dolphin predecessors Nick Saban and Dave Wannstedt were generally overrated in preseason, as Miami was only 7-11-1 overall vs. the number the past five years, including 3-6-1 at home and 4-7-1 as chalk.
MINNESOTA...HC Brad Childress seemed to take things pretty seriously in his first preseason in charge of the Vikings a year ago, covering 3 of 4 chances. Note the Vikes also enter August having covered 4 of their last 5 on the preseason road.
NEW ENGLAND...HC Bill Belichick apparently hasn’t been putting the emphasis on preseason results as he did earlier in his Patriots tenure. From 2001-03, Belichick’s New Englanders sported a 9-2-1 spread mark in preseasons; the past three years, however, the mark has slipped to 5-6-1. But keep in mind that Belichick is 6-0-1 vs. the number the past seven exhibition lidlifters!
NEW ORLEANS...The Saints at least get a pair of home games in the Superdome this August after being forced to the road for all of their preseason games a year ago. But if the listless Hall of Fame Game loss to the Steelers is any indication, HC Sean Payton might not be putting any more priority on winning these games than he did a year ago, when dropping 3 of 4 SU and vs. the line.
NEW YORK GIANTS...A Bill Parcells disciple, HC Tom Coughlin has certainly incorporated the Tuna’s emphasis on preseason success. Coughlin’s Giants are 7-1 SU and vs. the line the last two preseasons. And with Coughlin under the gun even more than usual in ‘07, we wouldn’t be surprised to see that exhibition success continue.
NEW YORK JETS...HC Eric Mangini didn't seem to put a high priority on preseason wins during his first year in charge, covering just 1 of 4 chances. Also, the Jets' once-notorious mastery over the rival Giants (against whom the Jets covered 11 straight in preseason between 1992-2002) is a thing of the past, with the G-Men winning the last 2 and covering 3 of the last 4 of the annual preseason Meadowlands battles.
OAKLAND...It sure didn’t translate into regular-season success, but for what it’s worth, the Raiders were 4-1 SU and vs. the line last preseason under Art Shell. With Shell gone, and new HC Lane Kiffin now in charge, will the young coach adopt Al Davis’ once notorious low-key approach to exhibition play?
PHILADELPHIA...Well, the Eagles have been nothing if not consistent in recent preseasons for HC Andy Reid, recording 2-2 spread marks in four straight exhibition slates prior to ‘06; Philly then “streaked” to 3-2 against the line last summer. Perhaps worth more of a note is Reid’s solid 10-6 spread mark as a preseason dog with the Eagles. Not to mention the fact “Dang It” Andy’s bunch has dropped its lidlifter each of the past three preseasons before winning and covering its second game in all of those years!
PITTSBURGH...If the first game is any indication, new Steeler HC Mike Tomlin might be taking these exhibitions seriously. That 20-7 Hall of Fame Game win over the Saints August 5th broke a 4-game Steeler preseason losing streak. It also marked the 6th time in the last 7 Pittsburgh exhibition games that went “under.”
ST. LOUIS...HC Scott Linehan definitely laid low in his first preseason in St. Louis a year ago, failing to cover all 4 exhibition contests before noticeably shifting gears for the regular season.
SAN DIEGO...There are some new looks in San Diego, including new home uniforms reminiscent of the team’s 1960-64 outfits (white helmets included), not to mention a new HC, Norv Turner, who has been around the NFL track a few times with earlier stints as the boss in Washington and Oakland. Norv’s Raiders were 4-4 SU and 3-5 vs. the line in exhibition play during 2004-05. Note that the Chargers did bounce back well after a preseason SU loss (5-0 vs. line the past 3 seasons) when Marty Schottenheimer was in charge.
SAN FRANCISCO...HC Mike Nolan has been a preseason moneymaker the past two seasons, especially in ‘05 when his 49ers recorded a 4-0 spread mark. Overall, San Francisco is 6-2 vs. the line in preseason under Nolan, winning and covering all four chances at home on Candlestick Point.
SEATTLE...Interesting result patterns lately from the Seahawks, who have performed much better on the road in preseason (5-1 vs. line) than at home (1-5 against number) for HC Mike Holmgren since ‘04. Also worth noting are positive marks after a SU loss (4-0 vs. line) and as a dog (4-1, mostly reflected in that road performance).
TAMPA BAY...Jon Gruden has had his Tampa Bay teams ready for their exhibition opener, winning all five of them (and covering the last four of those after a pointspread push in the 2002 lidlifter vs. Miami), although results in subsequent games have been non-descript. A healthy QB battle between vets Jeff Garcia and Chris Simms could prove a plus this summer.
TENNESSEE...Once of the most successful preseason coaches, Jeff Fisher has been anything but the past two years, with a subpar 2-6 spread mark to his credit. Still, his long-term success ought to be acknowledged, including a 10-3-1 mark his last 14 on the road, and 8-1 his last 9 as a preseason dog.
WASHINGTON...Joe Gibbs has been playing it very vanilla the past two preseasons, covering just 1 of 8 tries, and none at all in last year’s four exhibitions. Let’s see if fast-forwarding the learning process for young QB Jason Campbell changes the dynamics this summer!
www.goldsheet.com
DIRECT FROM VEGAS
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
SHARPS POUNDING "UNDERS" IN EARLY EXHIBITION ACTION
You'd have think the oddsmakers would have learned by now that early preseason games aren't high scoring!
Vegas and offshore places have been hit very hard with Under money in this first full week of exhibition action. Among the notables up through press time:
* Cincinnati/Detroit opened at 37 and dropped to 35
* Indianapolis/Dallas opened 37 and dropped to 34.5
* Atlanta/NY Jets opened 33 and dropped to 31.5
* New England/Tampa Bay opened 34 and dropped to 33
* St. Louis/Minnesota opened 36 and dropped to 35
* Jacksonville/Miami opened 33 and dropped to 31.5
* Philadelphia/Baltimore opened 34 and dropped to 31.5
As I write this, not a single total has gone up yet! I left out the games that haven't moved, or that only moved a half a point toward the Under. That's clearly an across-the-board indictment of the openers. The oddsmakers got the numbers wrong, and the sharps have been pounding.
How do we know these are sharp moves rather than public moves? Easy.
* The public doesn't bet early in the week.
* The public DEFINITELY doesn't bet early in the week in preseason games. They barely get involved at all. When they do, it's for TV games on the weekend.
* The public bets Overs rather than Unders anyway. Your typical wagerer wants to root for offenses rather than defenses. Nothing gives a guy an ulcer faster than spending three hours rooting for stuff NOT to happen.
Early week bets on preseason Unders could only come from the sharps. This week, they came fast and furious as soon as the numbers went up.
Why is that? Let's take a look at last years opening week results. These are what the games landed on back in 2006. These aren't the Vegas totals, but the actual on-field results from last season's first full week of action. I've ranked them from lowest to highest to make it easy to scan through and draw conclusions.
Dallas/Seattle 16
NY Jets/Tampa Bay 19
Green Bay/San Diego 20
Washington/Cincinnati 22
Cleveland/Philadelphia 27
Buffalo/Carolina 27
Oakland/Minnesota 29
Denver/Detroit 33
NY Giants/Baltimore 33
Pittsburgh/Arizona 34
Tennessee/New Orleans 35
Indianapolis/St. Louis 36
Kansas City/Houston 38
Chicago/San Francisco 42
New England/Atlanta 49
Jacksonville/Miami 57
The midpoints on that list are the two games that landed on 33. That gives you a sense of what the typical total should be. Oddsmakers were under the impression that 35 was still the midpoint. That number used to work as an opener...but the game has changed a bit. More teams are just going through the motions in the first week. Almost everyone works on running the clock some because that's become a key to regular season success.
If all the totals had been 35 last year, Unders would have gone 10-5-1 against the spread. In actuality, they went 11-4-1! Vegas was too high last year as well. The sharps recognized that and took advantage right away.
Is it too late for YOU to act now? Has the value been taken away on the Unders? Most sharps would say yes. You almost never hear a Wise Guy recommending a play after a line has moved 1.5 or 2 points. They figure (usually correctly) that the value has been taken away. In fact, some will buy back the other side and shoot at a middle. I'm already hearing talk about that on a few of these games. I'm also hearing about a couple of games where sharps now like the Over because they think the early move was too big. Let's look at last year's data to see if moves like this would have taken away value last year.
If all the totals were 35 last year, the Unders would have gone 10-5-1
If all the totals were 33 last year, the Unders would have gone 7-7-2
If all the totals were 31 last year, the Unders would have gone 7-9
These early moves have definitely taken a lot of the value out of the market. But, some of the games are still sitting around 35. If you don't see any dramatic reasons to expect an Over in those games, then you can probably still make a case to play the Under. I think the sharps have already pounded the "obvious" Unders. Many of those could still land in the 20's and win (as seven games did last year during this weekend). There's not much margin for error though. An interception return here, a punt return there, and your beautiful Under ends up 17-16 and you don't cash your ticket.
Let's also remember that the sharps liked the Unders last year...and games stayed Under the CLOSING lines to an 11-4-1 clip. Even AFTER the line moves last year, the games still stayed Under. That should give you some hope. And, don't forget that this past Sunday Night's Pittsburgh/New Orleans game was a bit wide open at first...but a scoreless fourth quarter kept a 20-7 game Under the total. I wouldn't be surprised to see more quiet fourth quarters this weekend.
As always you should combine handicapping with the past tendencies to paint a picture of the game.
* If you think a game is going to be low scoring, remember that low scoring means in the 20's. You don't have the margin for error you'd like, but Under indicators can still lead a game to go Under 31.5 or Under 31. The "dead" games landed in the 20's last year. If you're handicapping suggests a dead game, you can justify a play. You may not be able to "blanket" all of the Unders any more (though that still would have worked out last year). But you can find a game that could still cover by as much as a touchdown or 10 points.
* If you think a game is going to fly Over, remember that these kinds of games are rare in preseason openers. Only three games last year made it past 40 points...and only two were higher than 42 points. This just isn't the time to expect shootouts. Wait for the regular season to play those. What your gut is telling you about the teams just isn't right for this stage of the season. High scoring games are typically turnover driven in August rather than offensively driven anyway.
Isn't it great to be talking football again?!
I'm very much looking forward to this weekend's card. There are two games Thursday night (including Indianapolis/Dallas on FOX), four games Friday night (including Buffalo/New Orleans on CBS), seven games Saturday night (including Washington/Tennessee on the NFL Network, one game Sunday night (Seattle/San Diego on NBC), and two games Monday Night (including Denver/San Francisco on ESPN).
That's FIVE straight nights of pro football...and FIVE straight nights of FOOTBALL ON TV!
NFL Betting News: NFC West Preseason Preview
By: Tony Stoffo
Let me start off by saying that I feel the NFL preseason is a great opportunity to start and build a nice bankroll for the upcoming regular season. Many handicappers have the opinion that the preseason games should be left alone and not bet on. I feel just the opposite. If you do your homework the preseason games offer the betting public a tremendous chance to make a ton of money.
In the preseason, many head coaches have a track record of wanting to win and some just don’t care and are just preparing for the regular season. You can find many games this preseason where you can get a definite edge. Below I have put together a list of all 32 teams with a breakdown of things to look for this preseason that will give you that winning advantage.
A very important thing to remember for this upcoming preseason is that there will be 7 new head coaches this season, so previous preseason trends for these teams are no longer valid. However I have found some nice hidden trends that can still show us a profit with these teams.
Here are the 7 teams with new head coaches for the upcoming season:
Arizona - Ken Whisenhunt
Atlanta - Bobby Petrino
Dallas - Wade Phillips
Miami - Cam Cameron
Oakland - Lane Kiffin
Pittsburgh - Mike Tomlin
San Diego - Norv Turner
NFC West
Arizona – With Dennis Green now gone Ken Whisenhunt takes over as the new head coach of the Cardinals. For the past 3 seasons Whisenhunt has been the offensive coordinator of the Steelers. For this upcoming preseason I would definitely make the Cardinals a team to play on as they have gone 11-5 against the spread the last 4 years, and have a new coach that wants to impress immediately.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Matt Leinatt, Kurt Warner, Shane Boyd
St Louis – Scott Lineham will be in his second year as head coach of the Rams, and a strong trend easily sticks out that we can make some money with this preseason. Two years ago as offensive coordinator with the Dolphins Lineham saw Miami go 0-3-2 against the spread, and last year in his first year as a head coach Lineham led the Rams to a 0-4 mark against the spread. So in the last two preseasons Lineham’s teams have gone 0-7-2 against the spread making this one of the top trends to watch for this year.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Marc Bulger, Gus Frerotte, Ryan Fitzpatrick
San Francisco – In Mike Nolan’s first two year’s as head coach, the 49ers have gone 6-2 against the spread in the preseason. Here is another team that has a strong quarterback rotation setup for this preseason. So I look for the 49ers to once again have another winning preseason.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Alex Smith, Trent Dilfer, Shaun Hill,
Seattle – The Seahawks' head coach Mike Holmgren doesn’t put much emphasize in preseason games, going 8-12 ATS the last five years. However a strong trend has developed that has seen 7 of the last 10 Seattle games go over the total. Something to definitely keep your eye on for this year.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Matt Hasselbeck, David Greene, Seneca Wallace.
www.sportsaudioshows.com
NFL Betting News: Preseason Notes
By: BoDog Sportsbook
Pittsburgh’s new coach has a lot to prove as he takes over one of the NFL’s most revered teams.
Who Mike Tomlin is and why he got here is still an intrigue.
What we do know: He's a 35-year-old who never played in the NFL yet finds himself in charge of one of the most established franchises in pro sports and at the head of a staff of coaches whose ages range from 42-69.
We also know the Steelers' decision to hire Tomlin cost them two top-flight assistant coaches - Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm - who helped bring Pittsburgh a championship in 2006. Both are in Arizona, with Grimm serving under Whisenhunt in the desert. Tomlin, meanwhile, is getting his new Nikes wet in Pittsburgh, starting with a 20-7 win in the Hall of Fame Game in Canton, Ohio, on Sunday.
That victory over the Saints is no big deal. Tomlin's most recent predecessors, Bill Cowher and Chuck Noll, began their tenures with preseason defeats then went on to long and successful careers in the Steel City. The concerns surrounding Tomlin have everything to do with his lack of experience, and one meaningless triumph isn't convincing anyone
Coaches without pedigree can rocket to the top of the fraternity in no time. Jon Gruden, for example, was 35 when he took over the Oakland Raiders in 1998 and solidified his reputation as a tireless taskmaster. But nescience can also yield massive flops - Chris Palmer, Rich Kotite, Dave McGinnis, Mike Tice.
Is Tomlin the next Tony Dungy? A hands-off field general revered by his players. Or is he another Marty Mornhinweg? A dilettante who's greener than the turf below his feet.
When a young coach is hired there is usually concern about whether ambition and enthusiasm can make up for the lack of managerial experience and job knowledge. With 53 players and a large staff to supervise, the NFL sideline isn't the place to be learning as you go.
But Tomlin leads the Steelers - who own Super Bowl odds of 25/1 - into their 75th season because he wowed the Rooney family during an interview process that could turn out to validate the NFL's minority hiring practices by itself. If the league didn't require teams to interview at least one minority candidate for open head coaching jobs, Tomlin may not have been considered. He impressed the Rooneys so much they felt he was the one to return their franchise to prominence after a disappointing 8-8 season. For a team that featured only two head coaches during its previous 38 campaigns, that was a major win for Tomlin.
The owners' stamp of approval will buoy him for a while, but the Steelers mean more to their fans than just about any team. Tomlin's decisions that don't work will be ripped apart, and if Pittsburgh misses the playoffs again the call-in shows will clamor for a quick hook. NFL bettors haven't been quick to jump on their turnaround; the Steelers over/under for wins is nine. It doesn't help that uncertainty surrounds their most important player as well as their coach.
Last year, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger looked timid in the pocket as he struggled to recover from the injuries incurred in his famous offseason motorcycle crash. He is playing for a new contract this time and entered training camp in Latrobe, Pa., in what he called the best shape of his career. In the one series he ran against the Saints on Sunday, he looked strong and sharp, going 2-for-3 for 73 yards and leading the team to a touchdown. His rebound is crucial for Tomlin, who wants to open up the playbook and employ a two-tight end set, giving Roethlisberger more options when he drops back.
On defense, no one's quite sure what Tomlin will do. He was always an advocate of the Cover 2 defense he learned as an assistant in Tampa Bay, but Steelers defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau employs the 3-4. For now, the game plan is to stick with what LeBeau has made work. The Steelers ranked 20th against the pass last year, however, and if improvement isn't made, you have to figure changes will be. No matter what Tomlin is saying now.
"I believe that my job is to game manage," the former Vikings defensive coordinator told reporters on Friday when asked if he would allow the coaches to call plays. "Once I become a play-caller, I lose a little sense of what's going on with all 53 if we're talking about a regular-season situation. I'm going to game manage. I'm sure there may be instances where I am involved in that, but I'm going in it with the mentality that I'm a game manager."
The Steelers play in Phoenix on Sept. 30 and by that time the players and fans will have more of a sense of who their new coach is and where he's taking them. They'll also be able to look across the sidelines and see Whisenhunt, remember where they've been and ponder where they might be. If at that point any onlooker in the Steel City has an envious thought about the perennial losers from Arizona then we'll know a lot more about Tomlin, except, perhaps, how much he's aged in his first four regular-season games as a head coach.
Random Thoughts on the NFL Preseason
* I'm a sucker for the Detroit Lions and their collection of offensive stars. I'm sure I'll go to the well again when my fantasy football draft occurs later this month. One team I intend to avoid, though, is Cincinnati, the Lions' opponent on Thursday night. While Carson Palmer and Chad Johnson should be their usual prolific selves, Rudi Johnson seems like a classic short-career running back and the honeymoon's long over for Marvin Lewis. This team needs to go far into the playoffs, but it's a candidate for regressing to a below-.500 team.
* More bad news for the Colts' defense as Corey Simon, who had signed a five-year, $30-million deal in 2005, was released on Saturday, and tackle Anthony McFarland suffered what could be a season-ending knee injury on Sunday. As rich as he is, Dwight Freeney's going to feel like a poor man on the field when he sees what he's got around him.
* As long as his left leg holds up, Randy Moss will be showing off his Patriot colors in Tampa Bay on Friday night as the Tom Brady Air Show makes its debut. That first possession by New England is the most anticipated series in recent preseason history.
THE UNDERCARD
That's upsetting
Newly inducted Michael Irvin says he's worried about how he might sully the Pro Football Hall of Fame if he gets into trouble with the law. Where was that sense of responsibility when you were a Cowboy, Mike?
Proof of disorder in the universe
Suspicion was raised by unusual betting activity against tennis player Nikolay Davydenko, who retired because of injury midway through his match with Argentine Martin Vassallo Arguello on Saturday in Warsaw. In denying that his client had anything to do with match fixing, Davydenko's agent made him sound like he didn't belong on the ATP Tour at all: "He hasn't won a tournament this year ... He had to defend a lot of points in Sopot and he has no other tournaments to make up for it. So, he personally has no reason whatsoever for foul play. He's desperate to win."
Two games tonight 🙂
Bengals 34½
Lions -3
Colts 34
Cowboys -4½
Two games tonight 🙂
Bengals 34½
Lions -3Colts 34
Cowboys -4½
Thursday’s NFL starter report
Wide receivers Terry Glenn and Chad Johnson top the list of VIPs sitting out today’s games, but there are a slew of others.
Here is a team-by-team breakdown of who’s sitting, who’s playing and for how long.
Indianapolis Colts
Defensive end Robert Mathis (left knee) and Bob Sanders (shoulder) both will not participate in today’s game. Cornerback Marlin Jackson hasn’t practiced this week but he is expected to see some time.
Head coach Tony Dungy said the early plan is to give the starters 10 to 15 plays before giving way to the untested players. Rookies Tony Ugoh (left tackle) and Anthony Gonzalez (receiver) are the only starters expected to be given additional time.
Dallas Cowboys
While Glenn is on the outside looking in, his Cowboys receiver partner, Terrell Owens is expected to play against the Colts. Patrick Crayton has been penciled in as Glenn's replacement to start the game.
The offensive line will be without both of its starting tackles as both Flozell Adams and Marc Colombo are both recovering from knee injuries. Starting free safety Ken Hamlin is also expected to sit out after getting shaken up from a hit in practice this week.
Head coach Wade Phillips says quarterback Tony Romo and some other starters will play the entire first quarter. Backup QB Brad Johnson will play the second while rookies Matt Moore and Richard Bartel will handle the mop-up duties in the second half.
Cincinnati Bengals
Besides Ocho Cinco, the Bengals will be missing the services of receivers Tab Perry, Bennie Brazell, Glenn Holt and Antonio Chatman. Cincinnati coach Marvin Lewis told reporters he would “err on the side of caution” with injured players, likely ruling out starting offensive linemen Levi Jones (knee) and perhaps Willie Anderson (rest) as well.
Lewis hasn’t tipped his hand for tonight’s rotation but from the sounds of things, the coaching staff would like quarterback Jeff Rowe to get as many snaps as possible.
Rowe, a rookie from Nevada, has impressed a lot of people in practice and Lewis wants to see how the kid will do in a game situation. Second-round pick Kenny Irons has also turned some heads, so expect the rookie running back to have his number called several times.
Detroit Lions
Matt Millen’s boys are relatively healthy heading into their preseason opener with the exception of rookie quarterback Drew Stanton who was lost for the season due to a knee injury.
Stanton’s loss as created a void at the backup QB slot. Head coach Rod Marinelli said J.T. O’Sullivan would play the majority this week with Dan Orlovsky taking his turn next week.
Both players have little to no experience in the pros, so Marinelli will need a good long look at each.
The starters are expected to see 10-12 snaps before giving way to the backups. Rookie wideout Calvin Johnson has been told to be ready for extensive action in the game. The coaches want the rookie to bring his conditioning up to par after a brief holdout from training camp.
Offensive coordinator Mike Martz and defensive coordinator Joe Barry each stressed the play-calling would be conservative tonight.
covers.com