NFL Season Win Totals Predictions
by T.O. Whenham
If you are like me then you are impatiently counting the seconds until the football season starts. Both pro and college training programs are about to get going in full force, and the season is just around the corner (though not close enough). If you're having trouble waiting and you are desperate for some action, then you need to look no further than futures betting to give you something to think about, and something to spend some money on. The win totals are particularly fun to look at, because what happened last year so often has little bearing on what we will see this season. That means you have to consider all sorts of factors - personnel moves, injuries, coaching changes, schedule - to determine what a team may have to offer. Here's a look at some of the win totals that could have some value in them (all odds are from Bodog):
Tampa Bay over 7 - I'm not delusional enough to think that the Bucs are Super Bowl bound, but I think that eight wins is within their reach this season. Jon Gruden can coach, and he will have his back up against the wall - if he doesn't improve significantly, he is probably out of a job. He has invested his faith in Jeff Garcia, and opinions of that decision vary widely. I love it. Garcia showed last year with Philly that he can play very well with moderate talent around him as long as he has a solid running back and some protection. He should have both in Tampa Bay. Cadillac Williams had an off year last season, but there is reason to be optimistic about this year. Running backs generally do well behind Garcia. The schedule is in Tampa Bay's favor, too. They play a much easier slate (based on the previous season's records) than they did last year, and they have a solid veteran taking snaps instead of a raw rookie. The Bucs were worse than many people thought last year, and that disappointment may have led to a total this year that is slightly generous.
Arizona over 7.5 - The worst thing that ever happened to me is that I went to an Arizona Cardinals game almost 20 years ago. It was my first NFL game, and so I didn't know any better - I was in awe of what I saw and have had a bit of a soft spot for the Cards ever since. I say that was a bad thing because it has led me to make the same mistake several times - assuming that they are about to make a breakthrough. It never happens, but I am about to do it again. I think eight wins is easily within reach here. Ken Whisenhunt is the new sheriff in town. He has no head coaching experience, but I trust him to be far more levelheaded and dependable than the increasingly bizarre Dennis Green. Matt Leinart knows he will be starting from the outset, he has lots of options to throw to, and Russ Grimm has been brought in to take advantage of their talent and fix the lousy running game. The defense has been overhauled, and should be better than it was in the past. The schedule is very friendly, too - the Cards face the easiest in the league.
Detroit over 6.5 - I don't think that Jon Kitna is correct in saying that his team will win at least 10, but I think seven is attainable. Calvin Johnson is an absolute freak, and that kind of guy can give a team a huge boost. Mike Martz is in the second year of running the offense, and he and Kitna should be able to take advantage of the experience and the tools available to put up some serious numbers. The defense needed a lot of work, and new coordinator Joe Barry has been installing the right tools. Detroit showed signs of being solid last year, and I am willing to bet that some of that potential will be realized. Realistically, seven wins really isn't a ton to ask provided they get a solid start.
Chicago under 10.5 - The Bears accomplished what they did last year largely because of defense. Due to departures and Lance Briggs looming holdout the defense is poised to take a step back this season. Teams can be okay in that situation if the offense can pick up the slack. That probably won't happen here. Rex Grossman is still looked at as the answer, and I just don't see it. I still think that the Bears are probably the best team in the division, but it will be closer because both Detroit and Minnesota should be improved. Nine or 10 wins seems more likely to me than 11 or more.
New York Giants under 8.5 - A team that wins nine or more games is a pretty solid team. I don't see how the Giants fit that bill at all. Tiki Barber leaves a pretty big hole, and the team hasn't done enough to fill that gap. More importantly, it's a little disturbing to hear some of the current leaders on the team, most notably Eli Manning, take shots at Barber once he is gone. That doesn't show a team that is united and focused. Manning really has to step up and prove that he is deserving of being and NFL starter, and I really have no faith in his ability to do that. It's a bit of a miracle that Tom Coughlin is back as head coach, so I suspect that he is on pretty weak ground and the team will shut him out if things turn awry. The Giants won eight games last season, and I see little that they did that in the offseason to improve that.
Totals for other teams:
Atlanta - 7.5
Baltimore - 9.5
Buffalo - 6.5
Carolina - 9
Cincinnati - 9.5
Cleveland - 6
Dallas - 9
Denver - 9.5
Green Bay - 7.5
Houston - 6.5
Indianapolis - 11
Jacksonville - 9
Kansas City - 8
Miami - 7
Minnesota - 7
New England - 11.5
New Orleans - 9.5
New York Jets - 8
Oakland - 5
Philadelphia - 9.5
Pittsburgh - 9
San Diego -11
San Francisco - 7.5
Seattle - 9
St. Louis - 7.5
Tennessee - 7
Washington - 7.5
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