NFL STAR SELECTION
Sunday, September 24, 2006
1:15 PM PT/4:15 PM ET
1 STAR SELECTION (2% of Bankroll)
Philadelphia -6 over SAN FRANCISCO
The Eagles fly into the Bay area on Sunday and they won’t be in a happy mood as they take the 49ers. Philadelphia blew a 24-7 4th quarter lead over the Giants last week, ultimately losing 30-24 in overtime. San Francisco comes in off an upset victory over the Rams last week, winning 20-13 at home.
There is no question that Eagles QB Donovan McNabb is back at peak efficiency. He is one of just two NFL quarterbacks with 300-yard outings in each of his first two games of 2006. He has proven to be as elusive as ever, getting sacked only twice thus far. McNabb will be looking to pick apart a still-green 49ers secondary that has allowed four touchdown passes without an interception thus far.
The 49ers QB Alex Smith has come a long way since his mistake-prone rookie season in 2005, and has a 93.5 passer rating thus far. Smith will be trying to attack a Philadelphia defense that blitzes relentlessly. The Eagles will be without starting CB Lito Sheppard and backup Roderick Hood when they play the 49ers. Counted on to step up here, will be CB Joselio Hanson, who is expected to make his first start. Hanson actually spent two seasons with the 49ers, but was released after Mike Nolan replaced Dennis Erickson as head coach. "With a new coaching staff, I didn't get much of a chance," Hanson said. Obviously, he is looking forward to playing against his old team. "I have to admit that there is extra satisfaction playing the 49ers. If we win, it will feel so good."
Philly coach Andy Reid made reference Monday to his 2002 team's season-opening loss to the Tennessee Titans. The Eagles blew a 17-point fourth-quarter lead in that game as well, but bounced back in a big way the next week as a road favorite. On a Monday Night, Philadelphia demolished the Redskins, 37-7. "This is a reminder of the same situation," Reid said. "I'm not going to predict the future. But it's important that we learn from it like we did in that game." The lesson learned is to keep attacking. In both games to start the season, the Eagles were very aggressive on offense and opened up large leads. They kept Houston down in Game 1, but let up on the Giants last week. With that bitter defeat still fresh in their minds, they aren’t about to let that happen again. This week, McNabb and Company will continue to push the ball down field and put points on the board.
The last time these teams met, Philadelphia was coming off an early-season tough loss and San Francisco was off an upset win over the Rams - nearly identical to the situation here. In that Game 2 last year, the angry Eagles took care of business and buried the 49ers, 42-3. Philly also won in their last trip to San Francisco, prevailing by a 38-17 count in 2002, so they should certainly feel confident against this team coming in. After last week’s disaster, however, there’s no way they will take the ‘Niners lightly.
The Eagles are 7-0 ATS on the road off a 1 game SU & ATS skid, 7-0 SU & ATS after playing the hated Giants since 2001, and 7-0 SU & ATS as a conference favorite of 11 points or less off a favorite SU loss in their last game.
After blowing a huge 4th quarter lead as Philadelphia did last week, teams have had a fire lit under them, as shown by a PRO INFO SPORTS NFL POWER SYSTEM which states:
Play ON a team with a TOTAL of 37-48½ points off a SU loss leading by 15+ points after 3 quarters in its last game.
With those basic parameters, these teams are 10-0 SU & ATS since 1992, beating the spread by more than 16 ppg on average.
The 49ers no doubt enjoyed their win over their hated rival last week, but a let down now is inevitable. They are 1-10-1 ATS against conference opponents when coming off a SU win, and after a home victory over St. Louis, they are 0-5 ATS in Sunday games.
Finally, in recent seasons, home underdogs have been unable to pull off another strong effort after an upset victory. Another POWER SYSTEM states:
Play AGAINST a non-Monday home underdog off an underdog SU win in its last game.
Since the latter part of the 2004 season, these home dogs are an ugly 0-14 SU & ATS, failing to cover the spread by more than 9 ppg on average. The ‘Niners qualified in late 2004 and could not cover in their next game as a home underdog against the Redskins. Last year, they were 10½-point home dogs to the Giants after an upset win, but again could not beat the spread. Now, after their latest underdog victory, they face yet another tough NFC East foe.
We expect Philadelphia to come out sharp and focused from the opening kick-off and take an early lead. This week, there will be no let down in the 4th quarter from the Eagles, as they make a big lead stick for a SU & ATS win.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: PHILADELPHIA 27 SAN FRANCISCO 17