NFL STAR SELECTION
Sunday, October 01, 2006
10:00 AM PT/1:00 PM ET
Opinion Selection (1% of Bankroll)
Indianapolis -8 over NY JETS
In a matchup of old AFC East rivals, the Colts head back to New York for an early game with the Jets. Peyton Manning and team started the season in the same stadium with a Sunday Night Football win over Eli Manning and the Giants, and with 2 more wins are off to a 3-0 start. There is a New York team off to a 2-1 start, but surprisingly it’s not the Giants. The Jets who won just 4 games last year, have road wins at Tennessee and Buffalo, with a home SU & ATS defeat to New England sandwiched in between.
The Colts’ Manning has enjoyed some great games in regular-season play against the Jets, winning six of nine meetings and passing for over 400 yards in their last meeting. The Colts' offense racked up 538 total yards in that game. To no one’s surprise, #18 is first in the AFC with 895 yards through the air in three weeks and third in the conference with 5 TD passes.
New York will need all hands on deck here, but the Jets cornerbacks, Derrick Strait and David Barrett, were held out of practice Wednesday with thigh injuries and are listed as questionable for this game. The Jets have given up 387 total yards per week, but have a +5 turnover ratio that's second in the AFC.
Chad Pennington has played well in his return from another injury, which has certainly covered up some of the Jets defensive shortcomings. Upon closer review of last week’s game, we note that New York won despite allowing 475 yards offense and managing only 256 of their own, including a meager 74 rushing yards. They overcame career outings by running back Willis McGahee, who had 150 yards rushing, and J.P. Losman's 328 yards passing. In fact, Buffalo was the first home team in NFL history to lose a game in which it had players with at least 300 yards passing and 150 yards rushing.
We used a play on the Jets last week, noting that Buffalo’s win at Miami the previous week was over-rated, as the Bills were dominated statistically. It’s a similar situation here. If New York is that liberal defensively against the Colts, they are likely to get buried.
Playing on the road has not become a problem for the Colts in recent years. In fact, in some ways, Indianapolis plays better in an opponent's stadium. The key, according to Manning, is focus. "We prepare for each opponent equally and study hard. Practice hard for them and try to go out there and take what you do on the practice field to the playing field," he said. "That's kind of what it's going to take this week.†Whatever they are doing, it’s working. As a non-division road favorite of more than 1 point, Indianapolis is 11-0-1 ATS since 2001, covering the spread by nearly 11 ppg on average. Even against opponents off a road underdog win, the Colts have been perfect in recent seasons, going 3-0 SU & ATS in that spot since 2002.
As pointed out last week, in our Free 1 STAR SELECTION winner on Philadelphia, home dogs have been unable to pull off another strong effort after an upset victory in recent seasons. Specifically, non-Monday home underdogs off an underdog win were 0-13 ATS since late 2004 through the 2005 season. After the Jets beat the Titans on the road as an underdog, New York came home and failed to cover the spread as a 6-point dog to the Patriots. Then last week, the 49ers were a home dog following their upset win over the Rams. Again, the home underdog failed to cover, making this PRO INFO SPORTS NFL POWER SYSTEM now 15-0 ATS just since Week 11 of the 2004 season.
Peyton Manning certainly didn’t have a career day last week against the Jaguars, completing only 14 of 31 passes in the 21-14 win. That was actually the lowest completion percentage in any of Peyton’s 131 regular-season games. He should bounce back here against a defense much more to his liking, as he should pass at will against New York’s vulnerable defensive backfield, leading the Colts to a double-digit victory.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: INDIANAPOLIS 28 NY JETS 17