Gold Sheet - NFL Week 3
CINCINNATI at ATLANTA
CINCINNATI at ATLANTA...LeBeau hasn’t much helped Cincy’s long-standing road (now 13-27-1 vs. line away since ’97; 6-9 of that under Dick). Bengals also 7-15-1 vs. spread as road dog since ’99, and “under” 17-8 as visitor
since ’99. Tech edge-Falcons and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.
ST. LOUIS at TAMPA BAY
ST. LOUIS at TAMPA BAY (Monday, September 23)...Bucs (with Dungy) covered each of last 3 years vs. Rams including outright wins as dog the past two years on Monday nighters. Gruden teams now “over” 23-8 their last 31 as host (Raiders & Bucs). Tech edge-Bucs & “over,” based on series and “totals” trends.
GREEN BAY at DETROIT
GREEN BAY at DETROIT...Ugh! Home-oriented series, host 8-0 vs. line last 8 meetings, 9-0-1 last 10. As bad as Lions were LY under Mornhinweg they were 5-2 vs. line as home dog and are now 10-4 vs. spread as home “short” since ’99 (14-6 since ’97!). “Overs” 5-2-1 last 8 in series, and Pack “over” 13-6 last 19 away. Tech edge-Lions & “over,” based on series and “totals” trends.
SEATTLE at N.Y. GIANTS
SEATTLE at N.Y. GIANTS...Holmgren 1-6-2 vs. line on road since ’01, 8-15-2 vs. number since arriving in ’99.
Seahawks also 13-25-3 vs. spread last 41 games on board. Giants “under” 22-14-1 since ’00. Tech edge-slight to Giants & “under,” based on Giants’ “totals” trends.
SAN DIEGO at ARIZONA
SAN DIEGO at ARIZONA...Cards just 14-26 vs. spread as host since ’97. Marty 10-4 vs. spread his last 14 on board. Tech edge-Marty, based on extended Cardinal home woes.
BUFFALO at DENVER
BUFFALO at DENVER...Denver has suddenly become an “under” team at home, especially since Ray Rhodes arrived as d.c. Broncos now “under” 7-2 as host since Rhodes (“under” 8-2 last 10 overall as host) and “under” 14-7 last 21 dating to late ’00. Broncs also 8-2 vs. line last 10 as host (6-2 last 8 as home chalk) and they’re now 28-14-2 vs. line as host since ’97. Buffalo has not won SU in Denver since a 17-16 win way back in 1967! Tech edge-Broncos and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends
INDIANAPOLIS at HOUSTON
INDIANAPOLIS at HOUSTON...Colts now “over” 14-4 since ’01 (“over” 8-1 last 9 away). Tech edge-”Over,” based on Colts’ “totals” trends.
NEW ORLEANS at CHICAGO
NEW ORLEANS at CHICAGO...Bears now 14-6-1 vs. number last 21 on board. Tech edge-Bears, based on recent team trends.
N.Y. JETS at MIAMI
N.Y. JETS at MIAMI...Jets have won last 8 SU vs. Miami and are 7-0-1 vs. line in those games! Jets 23-8-1 vs. line as road dog since ’97 and 29-13-1 vs. spread overall as visitor same span. But note Wannstedt 13-5-1 vs. line at Pro
Player Stadium since ’00. Tech edge-Jets, based on series trends.
Week 3 NFL Trends
Saints are 3-1 SU/ATS last four meetings.
The over is 9-2 in NO's last 11 overall.
The over is 13-5 in Saints' last 18 as the 'dog.
Bears are 7-1 ATS last eight games on turf.
CHI is 2-4 ATS last six home games.
The under is 7-2 in Bears' last nine on turf.
The over is 8-4 in Indy's last 12 on turf.
Indy is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 overall.
The over is 14-4 in Colts' last 18 overall.
The under is 2-0 in Texans' game this season.
Including pre-season, HOU last six played under.
HOU averages just 11 points per contest
Jets are 7-0-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.
NYJ are 11-6 ATS last 17 divisional tilts.
The under is 6-3 in the last nine meetings.
The under is 5-2 in Miami's last seven overall.
Dolphins are 10-6 ATS last 16 divisional contests.
Fins are 22-12 ATS last 34 September games.
The under is 3-1 in the last four meetings.
The under is 14-8 in CAR last 22 vs. conference.
Panthers are 5-2-1 ATS last eight as the underdog.
MIN is 7-2 ATS last nine following two or more losses.
Vikes are 0-3 ATS last three as home fav of 3.5 - 7pts.
The over is 3-0 in MIN last three as home fav of 3.5 - 7.
Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in last four road games.
KC is 0-5 ATS last five vs AFC East opponents.
The over is 4-2 in Chiefs' last six road contests.
Pats are 14-2-1 ATS last 17 games overall.
NE is 3-1 ATS last four vs AFC West opponents.
NE is 3-0 ATS last three meetings.
The under is 7-1 in Dallas' last eight overall.
DAL is 1-6 ATS in their last seven SU losses.
The under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
Philly is 11-4 ATS in last 15 games overall.
PHI is 5-1-1 ATS last seven meetings.
Eagles are 19-8 ATS last 27 conference tilts.
The over is 6-2 in the Browns' last eight overall.
The over is 13-3 in CLE last 16 road contests.
Browns have not covered ATS in last 10 SU losses.
TEN is 2-6 ATS last eight as home fav of 3.5 - 7pts.
Titans are 4-2 ATS in last six meetings.
The over is 10-2 in TEN last 12 home games.
Chargers are 3-10-2 ATS in last 15 games overall.
SD is 4-8 ATS last 12 games as the favorite.
The Chargers are 43-1-1 ATS in last 45 road wins.
Cards are just 2-5 ATS last seven September games.
ARI is 8-2 ATS in last 10 games overall.
The last two meetings have played under.
The over is 7-3 in Bills' last 10 overall.
Bills are 1-4 ATS as road 'dogs of 7.5 - 10pts.
The over is 4-1 in BUF last five vs AFC West.
Broncos are 7-2 ATS last nine September games.
The under is 8-2 in Broncos’ last 10 overall.
DEN is 7-2 ATS at home since start of last season.
The over is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings.
GB is 1-6 ATS last seven games played on turf.
The over is 6-0 in Pack's last six games on turf.
The home team is 9-0-1 ATS last 10 meetings.
DET is 10-5 ATS following two or more SU losses.
Lions are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games.
Seahawks are 3-8-2 ATS in last 13 games overall.
SEA is 0-4 ATS last four as road 'dog of 3.5 - 7pts.
SEA is 1-6-1 ATS last eight road contests.
Giants are 5-1 ATS last six vs NFC West opponents.
NYG are 4-8-1 ATS in last 13 games overall.
The under is 16-6 in Giants last 22 as the favorite.
WAS is 4-8 ATS last 12 following a MNF appearance.
Skins are 1-3 ATS last four first road games.
The under is 12-4 in WAS last 16 spots as the 'dog.
The under is 8-1 in SF's last nine games overall.
Under is 6-0 in SF last six as home fav of 3-5 - 7pts.
Niners are 5-2-1 ATS in last eight home games.
Cincy is scoring just 6.5 points per game thus far.
The under is 12-5 in Bengals last 17 road contests.
Bengals are 3-6 ATS last nine away from home.
The under is 5-1 in ATL last six non-conference.
Falcons are 1-6-1 ATS last eight at Georgia Dome.
The under is 6-3 in ATL last nine as the favorite.
The under is 8-2 in Rams last 10 on grass.
Rams are 0-4 ATS in last four games overall.
The over is 7-2 in STL last nine games in Sept.
TB is 2-4 ATS last six home games.
TB is 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS last three meetings.
Bucs are 4-2 ATS last six on Monday Night Football.
NFL
1. Bet on any team that is going for its fourth straight win (straight up), and its fourth straight win (by the points) at home. Results: 91 wins and 47 losses in the past 29 years. (65.94 %)
2. Bet on any Monday Night Football home team underdog. Results: 110 wins and 56 losses since the inception of the Monday night games. (66.27 %)
3. Bet on any Monday Night Football home team favorite if they are laying 5 or more points. Results: 57 wins and 39 losses since the 1984 season. (59.38%)
4. Bet against last year’s Super Bowl winner in game #2 through game #5 of the season. Results: 65 wins and 43 losses in the past 29 years. (60.19%)
5. Bet against any team that is attempting to cover the point spread for the second straight game as a road favorite. Results: 72 wins and 35 losses in the past 26 years. (67.29%)
6. Bet against any team in its third consecutive road game. Results: 91 wins and 58 losses in the past 25 years. (61.07%)
7. Bet on any team that is an intra-division home team underdog or “Pick Em,” or laying no more than one point. Results: 529 wins and 401 losses in the past 27 years. (56.88%)
8. In the playoffs, bet against the Wild Card teams when they are going against division winners. Results: 53 wins and 37 losses since the inception of the Wild Card format. (58.89%)
9. When a week 1 favorite of less than 7 is now a week 2 home favorite of 10 or more, play the week 2 game to go under.