NFL Week 14 opening line report
Stephen Nover
Covers.com
The Dallas Cowboys are coming off an impressive home victory against Green Bay, clearly establishing themselves as the best team in the NFC.
The Detroit Lions have dropped four in a row after a 6-2 beginning. The Lions also won’t have their best wide receiver and top playmaker, Roy Williams.
Dallas travels to Detroit Sunday for an easy victory, right? Those betting early sure believe so. The Cowboys were up to 11-point favorites Monday with the line probably climbing higher.
“The wheels sure have come off on Detroit,” said Mike Seba, a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
This is the type of matchup, though, that has trap game written all over it.
This is the Cowboys’ only road tilt in a five-week span. They hosted the Packers last Thursday and are home to division rival Philadelphia the following week. The Lions are 4-2 at home and still have receiving weapons even with Williams probably out for the season because of a knee injury suffered last Sunday against Minnesota.
“Anything above 10½ on the road is tough cover unless you’re New England,” Seba said. We had to make it high because they (the public) bet Dallas up. There is value with Detroit.”
Seba also believes there is plenty of value taking San Diego as a pick’em on the road against Tennessee. He said all four of LVSC’s NFL oddsmakers made the same number on this matchup: Chargers -3.
“San Diego is on a roll right now,” Seba said. “The Chargers are one of the top teams in the AFC. I’m really high on San Diego. I can’t see the Chargers at less than three here and it looks like it’s going to close around pick.”
It probably wasn’t a coincidence, though, that the Titans halted their three-game losing streak this past Sunday against Houston when defensive lineman Albert Haynesworth returned to the lineup after missing three games. He’s their top defensive player.
If LaDainian Tomlinson has trouble finding running room, can Philip Rivers step up and deliver a road victory against a decent AFC club? Tomlinson had a monster performance against Kansas City this past Sunday, but has rushed for more than 100 yards only three times this season.
Miami at Buffalo was the easiest number to make this week, Seba said. The Bills were 7-point home favorites. The number already was inching higher on Monday. Buffalo hasn’t been this big of a favorite since 2004.
However, in this case the big number seems justified. The Dolphins haven’t won in their last 15 games. They are 2-13 against the spread in their past 15 AFC East Division matchups. Rookie quarterback John Beck has not directed an offensive touchdown for Miami in three starts. The warm-weather Dolphins may have problems adjusting to cold weather elements in upstate New York.
“The Dolphins had their chance Sunday,” Seba said about the Dolphins getting blown out at home by the New York Jets, 40-13. “That was their only realistic chance (to get their first victory).”
Miami concludes its schedule hosting Baltimore, playing at New England and then home to Cincinnati.
Denver opened -6½ hosting Kansas City. The number was starting to climb Monday with some places up to -7. The Broncos are 4-14 against the spread when laying points.
“I wouldn’t want to lay 7 to a division opponent when you’re not much better than they are,” Seba said of the Broncos. “The weather could be bad, too.”
Seba said there’s no difference on the line between Kansas City quarterback Brodie Croyle and Damon Huard. Croyle has the bigger arm. Huard has much more experience.
Third-string quarterback Chris Redman may get the start Monday night at home against New Orleans. Redman led Atlanta to two touchdowns against St. Louis last week, completing 16-of-24 passes for 172 yards. He sure couldn’t be less effective than Joey Harrington or Byron Leftwich.
“They’re all an entry,” Seba said about the three Atlanta quarterbacks. “They really don’t do much for the line.”
New Orleans opened -4½. LVSC’s send-out on the game was Saints -5½. Seba’s number was -6.
“The Saints suffered a crushing defeat to Tampa Bay,” he said. “But this Atlanta team is just so bad. If the Saints come to play, they’ll win.”