NFL Week 3 POWER SYSTEM

From this week’s NFL POWERePORT we look at how division home favorites fare after pulling off a road underdog upset, despite a weak offensive output. Many times value can be found in playing against favorites off a game in which they won on the scoreboard but lost on the stat sheet. The average football fan will do little more than look at the final scores, watch a few highlights, and hear the pundits heap praise on the week's winners, as if the victors all played perfect games.

A closer examination of the statistics can sometimes reveal that the winning team was actually very fortunate to come out on top, either because of some lucky bounces of the football, or ineptitude of the previous opponent practically giving the game away. An example of the latter can be found when a team gets a road dog victory without having to do much on offense. These teams aren't likely to be as lucky next time out, especially against a division opponent. Now, instead of being the hunter, they'll be the hunted as a home favorite. Specifically, this week's NFL POWER SYSTEM states:

Play AGAINST a division home favorite of less than 11 points off a road underdog SU win, gaining less than 230 total yards in its last game.

These teams are 0-10 ATS over the past 10 NFL seasons, failing to cover the spread by more than 9 points a game on average.

Last week, Buffalo won as a large underdog at Miami. The Bills came away with the win, despite having fewer first downs, a worse 3rd-down conversion rate, averaging more than 2 fewer yards per pass, averaging more than a yard less per rush, and over 100 fewer total yards than the Dolphins. In fact, the visitors gained only 171 yards for the entire game, while Miami had 282 yards. Road underdogs outgained by such a margin are 72-633-2 SU since 1989, losing by an average of more than 15 points a game. Road underdogs that gained less than 175 yards, as Buffalo did, have even longer odds. These teams are 13-170 SU since 1989, losing by more than 18 points a game on average. Obviously, it's a rare occurrence when a team wins under either of those conditions. Combine them, and road underdogs that gained less than 175 yards and were outgained by more than 110 yards are 7-146 SU since 1989, losing by an average of more than 20 points a game! Yet, last week, Buffalo won 16-6 at Miami.

The Bills may have bucked those numbers and become part of the 4% that actually win with such poor offensive production, but they are now ripe for the picking. Buffalo easily qualifies as the play AGAINST team for this week's NFL POWER SYSTEM.