NFLX HANDICAPPING TIP #11 - RESTING STARTERS
Today’s NFLX Handicapping Tip is:
Play AGAINST a team, especially a favorite, resting key, established starters.
It just doesn’t make a lot of sense during the exhibition season for a coach to risk undue injury to those players whom he already knows will be starters. Very late in the Preseason, some coaches will give all vital personnel the entire game off, making them a dubious play if favored.
In the final Preseason game for the Jets and Eagles last year, Philadelphia was favored at home by 3 off 2 strong performances; however, that was due mostly to starters who wouldn’t even suit up for the exhibition finale. PRO INFO SPORTS felt that provided tremendous line value on the other side as we made New York a 2 STAR SELECTION. In our GAMEDAY INVESTMENT e-LERT, we informed our clients:
“While Philly’s starters have sparkled on both sides of the ball, the Jets have some work to do…In order to gain a measure of confidence back, Pennington may play beyond the obligatory one quarter in the team's final preseason game. Even if he does play just 1 quarter, that will be a quarter more than the Eagles starters, who will sit this one out completely…New York, meanwhile, will be the more focused team here, determined to end the preseason will a solid performance.â€
This game was a laugher from the start, as the Eagles were demolished in the first half with their starters not seeing any action. The Jets led 27-0 at the break and coasted to a 37-14 victory. Philadelphia was favored in this game because of recent performance and reputation of its stars; however, those key players didn’t even see the field, providing the perfect example of when to fade a team that’s saving itself for the regular season.