NFLX HANDICAPPING TIP #12 - LINE MOVES
Today’s NFLX Handicapping Tip is:
Play AGAINST a line move of more than 2 points that is not justified by circumstances.
When the previous factors we have discussed get quickly built into a line, the value is often on the other side. PRO INFO SPORTS likes to fade many of these moves to take advantage. Edges based on information like player rotation are small ones in exhibition play. Once the line has moved a bit, the edge disappears, and when the line moves too far, the edge can even turn around. While seeing major line moves creates an image of “steam†with real “inside information†crashing the board, the reality is that it does not take much money at all to move these games. Many sports book operators get so nervous at this time of year that not only does a little money move a game a bit, but moving “on air†(changing the line because it has moved at other key stores) is quite common; therefore a wager based on a small amount of information can turn into a pointspread avalanche, especially when the betting public follows on top of the first move, believing that the “wise guys†really know something.
Last year we saw a classic line move to fade when San Diego visited Green Bay. The Chargers opened as a 3-point dog but were favored by 3 points by gameday, a 6-point move that was completely unjustified. In our 2’ STAR SELECTION on the Packers we wrote:
“The line move here appears to be an over-reaction to the Packers poor showing in the scrimmage with the Bills last Friday. If anything, Green Bay will benefit from that live action and be motivated for a better performance in front of their home fans here. One way we examine the credibility of a number is to make the visitor the home team and adjust the spread accordingly. Figuring a 3-point home field advantage, this means a swing of 6 points. We then determine whether such a hypothetical spread would be justified. Such an exercise for this game would mean the Chargers would be favored at home by NINE points. Such a preseason spread is almost unheard of, and it’s more likely that San Diego would be favored by about 6 points if they were hosting this game, giving us good reason to believe that we’ve spotted a bad number here.â€
Green Bay won the game, 10-7, showing once again that the oddsmakers put up a better line than the one the public preferred. These are, after all, still only exhibition games, with most outcomes being decided more on mistakes than on merit, and many are nothing more than crap shoots. But sometimes a crap shoot with line value can be a winning proposition.