Northcoast Power Sweep College Key Selections

Northcoast Power Sweep College Key Selections

KEY SELECTIONS:

4* Arizona St over ARIZONA - The underdog is 9-1 ATS with SEVEN outright upsets and the visitor is also 9-1 ATS in this series. LY the Cats jumped out to a 20-0 lead and won comfortably 34-21 as 7’ pt road dogs. ASU started Andrew Walter at QB since Jeff Krohn was not 100% and he was only 10-22 for 132 yds. UA actually had a 255-218 yd edge going to the half, but ASU answered with a 59 yd and 80 yd TD drives. Then a Wildcat 13 yd int ret for a TD put it away. ASU won its only game as an AF under Koetter this year 39-28 at SDSt as a 6 pt fav. Arizona has been a poor HF going 2-13 ATS the L/4Y in that role and have not fared any better as a HD going 3-12 ATS since 1995. Arizona is off a huge Pac 10 win vs Cal in a tumultuous week in which players met with the school president to complain about HC Mackovic, who in turn apologized and offered to mend his ways. There had even been some talk about a player revolt in getting on the airplane but they took care of business vs the Bears outgaining Cal 487-356 in their 52-41 win. Their running game is non-existent only avg 42 ypg (1.4). QB Jason Johnson leads the offense and has avg 278 ypg pass (59%) with a 15-10 ratio. His top target is WR Bobby Wade who has 87 (14.7). ASU’s run game only avg 89 ypg (2.6). Walter, who now holds the ASU single season passing yds record even though he did not become the full-time starter until their 5th game. He has thrown for 3289 yds (57%) with a 26-12 ratio. WR Shaun McDonald has 75 rec’s (17.1). The Sun Devils had high hopes for their season at 7-2 but have dropped 3 straight. They hold all the ranking advantages (#42 vs #61 def, #50 vs #90 spec tms) in this one especially having a huge advantage on offense (#28 vs #82). ASU has been bitten by the turnover bug the past 3 games as noted they had outgained Cal and outFD’d Wash St 27-19. We see the bye week recharging the Sun Devils’ batteries and go with ASU here. FORECAST: Arizona St 41 ARIZONA 24

3* ARKANSAS over Lsu - This game will decide the SEC West Title winner. LSU is 6-2 SU vs the Hogs. The underdog is 6-2-1 ATS the L/9 in this series with the dog posting 4 outright upsets in that span including 2 in the L/3Y. The home team has won 5 in a row SU and all 5 would have been by DD’s if not for LY’s backdoor cover. LY LSU actually dominated this game with a 446-290 yd edge and had a 41-25 lead with 8:21 left, but gave up 2 garbage TD’s for the backdoor cover by Ark who was traveling on a short week. LSU had to overcome 5 TO’s by the offense. Ark had a young, but talented secondary LY and allowed 359 pass yds to Rohan Davey & Co, but this year the youngsters have experience and are #35 in our pass D rankings. This is a Friday game at Little Rock, where the Hogs are virtually unbeatable. The Hogs are 13-0 SU and 8-4 ATS the L/13 (1 was not lined) at War Memorial Stadium. LSU is 5-3 as an AD under Saban. Both teams are very similar with strong ground games and tough defenses (LSU #12, Ark #25). Ark also has a slight edge on off with our #52 ranked unit (LSU’s #58). Ark has the edge in rush defense allowing just 104 ypg rush (3.1) compared to LSU’s 127 ypg (3.6) and leads the NCAA in TO margin at +21. Ark QB Matt Jones is avg 117 ypg (55%) with a 14-5 ratio and also has 553 net rush yds (5.4). TB Fred Talley has 917 yds rush (6.1), but has shared time with De’Arrius Howard (534, 4.7) and Cedric Cobbs (385, 5.6). Ark has avg 243 ypg rush (5.1) compared with 196 ypg rush (4.7) by LSU. Nick Saban benched starting QB Marcus Randall LW after poor performances vs Aub & Bama, but his replacement, Rick Clausen, fumbled twice and threw an int, so Randall was brought in off the bench to lead the LSU comeback vs Ole Miss. Randall is avg 149 ypg (49%) with a 5-4 ratio and the team is 3-2 SU, but 1-4 ATS with him in the starting role. RB Domanick Davis has 779 yds (4.7). Ark has won 5 in a row SU since their fluky loss to KY, and led 26-6 at MSU LW before allowing two 4Q TD’s. LSU crushed Florida on the road, and escaped with a miracle win at Kentucky on the road this year, and are just 1-3 ATS on the road. FORECAST: ARKANSAS 24 Lsu 9

3* NEBRASKA over Colorado - Colorado has now covered 6 straight in this series, all as the underdog, and LY finally broke the Husker jinx (previous 5 SU losses were by 5, 3, 3, 3 and 2 pts) with a total demolition of Nebraska 62-36 as the Underdog Play of the Week on these pages. Despite winning the Big 12 Championship, the Buffs were ultimately BCS casualties being denied a spot in the Rose Bowl by the slimmest of margins (.05 of a pt) by the hated Huskers. We have had a great pulse on this series as we have won with a Key Selection on Nebraska in 1995, and then used 3 Late Phone Plays on the Buffs the next 3 years including 2 Top Weekly Late Phone Play Winners. In 2000 we used Colorado as The Underdog POW, and they once again took it down to the wire, losing only by 2 as 26’ pt AD’s. LY CU was good to us again as in addition to being our Underdog POW they were also a 4* Late Phone Play as NU allowed the most points ever in their history. CU is 2-0 as an AF this year after years of struggling in that role. NU is a HD for the 2nd time this year (1st time since ‘94 vs Texas) & are 3-1 ATS but 1-3 SU in that role in the L/24Y. The Huskers are 6-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in Lincoln this year. CU is 10-5 ATS on the Big 12 road under Barnett (2-1 this year). NU is 3-6 ATS in their last 9 home finales and 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in their last 6 revenge matches. Solich is 6-1 SU & ATS vs ranked foes in Lincoln. Both teams had a bye LW after CU clinched the Big 12 North vs ISU while NU suffered its worst-ever loss to the Big 12’s hottest team, Kansas St. The Huskers were dominated on the line of scrimmage vs KSU as they were outrushed 415-97 & after the game some players openly questioned whether their teammates were quitting on the field. CU RB Chris Brown remains one of the NCAA’s top rushers but did spend the night in the hospital after bruising his sternum vs ISU. He sat out practice LW but is expected to return here, especially after running for 6 TD’s vs the Huskers LY which is how he earned his nickname “Six TD Brown”. After that game Brown made the comment that NU’s safeties were afraid to tackle him so it’ll be interesting to see how the Blackshirts respond to those fighting words. Also NU players & staff members were incensed when they found out over the summer that CU had the score of LY’s game engraved on the Buffs’ Big 12 Championship rings. Both of these teams’ defenses have shown to be vulnerable vs the run as CU has allowed 153 ypg rushing (4.2) while NU has allowed 146 ypg (3.8). NU QB Jammal Lord has set the team record for QB rushing yds in a season with 1276 yds (6.0) but has been an erratic passer avg 96 ypg (48%) with a 10-9 ratio. He did miss 4 days of practice LW due to an undisclosed injury but is expected to be ready here. For yrs this gm was an afterthought to the Huskers who were more focused on Conference Title games or post season destinations while ex-CU HC McCartney made this the Buffs’ ‘red letter’ opponent. LY’s game & this year’s results have changed the dynamics of this series putting NU in the Buffs’ underdog role while the Buffs may be more focused on defending their Big 12 Title vs Oklahoma next week where a win over the Sooners would give them their only chance at a BCS Bowl. FORECAST: NEBRASKA 35 Colorado 27

OTHER SELECTIONS:

2* Florida over FLORIDA ST - This game usually has some sort of effect on the National Championship picture, but not this year. The home team is 11-3 ATS the L/14. In LY’s game UF RB Earnest Graham was injured, and he accused FSU DL Darnell Dockett of intentionally twisting his knee in the pile. The injury caused Graham to miss the Tenn game (a UF loss), and he was considering filing a lawsuit against Dockett. The Tenn loss cost UF a trip to the Rose Bowl so the injury won’t be forgotten. Florida romped LY 37-13 as 16 pt HF’s, FSU’s 1st time as DD away dogs since ‘95, but that was their first SU or ATS win since 1997 in the series. UF dominated the stat sheet outgaining FSU 453-260 and outFD’d them 24-13. UF hasn’t won in Tallahassee since 1986 (yes, that’s right Spurrier never won here), so this is a chance for the Gators to accomplish a rare feat. Since UF was eliminated from the SEC Title game, QB Rex Grossman declared this game as their “Championship Game.” UF is 9-5 ATS the week after a bye. FSU is off a revenge trip to NCSt where they lost again but with Maryland’s loss, they are back into the ACC Title and a BCS bowl slot despite 4 losses. The Seminoles are 9-1 ATS in their L/10 home finales. FSU is 5-3 ATS the L/8 as a fav of 7 or less (1-1 TY). FSU QB Adrian McPherson became the starter since the loss to ND and has avg’d 184 ypg (50%) with an 8-1 ratio but Chris Rix took over late LW. RB Nick Maddox has 570 yds (5.9) but was injured on the 3rd play LW and only had 4 carries. UF is 2-0 as a dog this year pulling the outright upset each time vs Tenn & Georgia. The Gators have had trouble defending against running QB’s this year as LSU’s Matt Mauck, Aub’s Jason Campbell, Ohio U’s Dontrell Jackson, Vandy’s Jay Cutler & S Car’s Corey Pinkins all confused the defense enough that UF allowed 197 ypg rush (4.3) and were 1-4 ATS vs those teams. Top UF WR Taylor Jacobs (57 rec, 15.9) is expected to return after missing the L/3 gms, and he will be needed as the other starting WR Carlos Perez (58, 10.2) broke his leg LW and will miss the rest of the season. QB Grossman is avg 252 ypg (58%) with a subpar 19-16 ratio. The Gators’ ground game is led by Graham who has 883 yds (4.4). Florida holds the edge on defense (#19 vs # 29) and only allow an avg of 308 ypg (FSU 372) while the Seminoles have the nod on offense (#9 vs #17) and a sizable advantage on spec teams (#28 vs #89). In their last two games vs bowl caliber teams (GT and NCSt) FSU was outFD’d 44-25. We give the nod to the rested underdog who will not be going to a BCS bowl, taking on an 8-4 FSU team that is. FORECAST: Florida 24 FLORIDA ST 20

2* TENNESSEE over Kentucky - The Vols have won 17 in a row SU vs the Cats and are 8-2 ATS the L/10. UT is 9-2 ATS their L/11 home finales. UT has averaged 55 ppg vs UK the L/6 years. We did win with one of our rare 5* plays in this series back in 1986 on UT -5, a 28-9 Winner and in 1999 and 2000 we won with Late Phone Plays on the Vols in 38-10 and 59-20 contests. The closest margin of victory for UT in the 5 years prior to LY was 28 pts and their avg win was by 37.2 ppg. LY UK came out and caught the Vols off guard scoring 3 TD’s before UT even had a FD, and led 21-0 with 5:33 left in the 1H. UK had a 24-15 FD edge, and outgained UT 543-367, but somehow lost 35-38 as 18 pt HD’s. UT is 9-2 ATS their L/11 home finales and 4-8 ATS the L/2Y as a HF. UK is 3-0 as an AD this year including outright upsets of Louisville & Arkansas. UK had a bye LW which is a big edge late in the season and UT is playing for the 6th straight week, not a good thing for a team that going into the Vandy game had 15 starters miss a total of 50 starts on the year. HC Fulmer recently remarked that the Vols have had more injuries this year than the other 9 seasons he’s been in Knoxville combined. UT did get a noticeable limping QB Casey Clausen back & he hit 12 of 22 for 120 yds vs Vandy with a limited gameplan. RB Cedric Houston has returned from injury & has rushed for 100 yds four games in a row. The Vols’ defense got its first shutout of the season vs the beaten up Commadores holding them to just 11 FD’s & 196 total yds despite missing 2 more starters (CB Willie Miles & DT Eddie Moore). They’ve given up just 5 TD’s in the last 4 games. UT has our #9 defense & our #17 pass eff defense allowing 166 ypg (49%) with a 9-12 ratio. Because Kentucky is ineligible to go to a bowl they have dubbed this game as “The Knoxville Bowl”. After the devastating loss to LSU, UK players said that the only thing that could save their season was to beat Tenn. RB Artose Pinner leads the SEC in rushing with 1363 yds (5.0) & has accounted for 40% of UK’s offense. QB Jared Lorenzen leads the SEC in pass eff avg 201 ypg (57%) with a 24-5 ratio. UK also has a big time weapon in KR/PR Derek Abney who set a NCAA record vs Vandy by returning 6 kicks for TD’s in a season. UK’s defense has improved from the last few years but still allows 176 ypg (4.3) rushing & 232 ypg passing (47%) with a 21-10 ratio. Tennessee’s goal this year is to make it to a New Year’s Day bowl. UK is avg just 284 ypg on the road and 15 FD’s per SEC road game and in UK’s win vs Vandy they led by just 7 with :18 left yet won by 21. FORECAST: TENNESSEE 37 Kentucky 20

2* CINCINNATI over Uab - The Bearcats are 4-1 SU but only 2-2 ATS in the short history of this series. LY UC won 31-17 as a 7’ pt AD but it was a misleading final as the Blazers had a 333-220 yard edge and outFD’d UC 19-10 in a game played in very windy and rainy conditions. After facing the potent pass attack of Hawaii LW they must now adjust to the UAB spread option but teams are 3-1 ATS after traveling to the Islands in 2002. The Bearcats are 7-1-1 ATS in their L/9 home finales. They are 15-11-1 ATS as a HF and are playing for the twelfth consecutive week with three of their L/4 on the road. Cincy is 1-0 as a DD fav this year. UAB had a bye in early November. UAB has twice played on the fake stuff this year and they are 0-2 ATS including their loss at Tulane where TU delivered a 4* Winner for us as our Top Weekly Late Phone Selection. Cincy is 8-0 ATS in their L/3 games of the year since 2000 (including their 2 covers TY). Cincy has covered 6 straight as a CUSA HF. UAB is 0-5 ATS on the road in 2002 and they have lost by an avg of 37-13. This is a must win for both teams to become bowl eligible. After Cincy lost LW a wild melee ensued as Cincy players were called for numerous questionable penalties throughout the game while UH was called for just two. LW UAB scored a late TD to lose 41-21 as an 18 pt AD. Cincy rates the edge on both sides of the ball here with our #50 offense and our #23 D. UAB is #88 and #86 respectively. Cincy QB Gino Guidugli is avg 250 ypg (54%) with a 15-15 ratio and he will be facing the Blazer DB’s that are allowing an 18-13 ratio. RB DeMarco McCleskey has 1033 yds (4.3) and 14 TD’s. The defense has improved throughout the year and after allowing 381 ypg total in their first 5, they are allowing just 248 ypg in their L/6!! Four of those L/6 opponents are bowl eligible and the 20 points they allowed to UH is remarkable. UAB QB Darrell Hackney, who has 193 ypg (52%) and a solid 14-6 ratio, will be taking on our #23 DB’s that have allowed just an 11-13 ratio and allow 369 ypg total D. UAB has been a phony CUSA contender for much of the season while UC beat TCU and Louisville on the road. Although the Blazers are fresher, we look for the more talented Bearcats to roll here at home. FORECAST: CINCINNATI 37 Uab 13

UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK:

Over the past 6 years this play has hit 50-28 64%! Last year the Underdog Play of the Week went 9-4 69% including 5 OUTRIGHT UPSET WINNERS and this year we've gone 8-5 62% with FOUR OUTRIGHT UPSET WINNERS!!! Here is this week's Underdog Play and remember, it does count as a Key Selection:

GEORGIA TECH +10 over GEORGIA

UGA is 18-8 SU the L/26 and 8-3 ATS the L/11 vs GT. The underdog has covered 5 of the L/7 in this series. UGA had won 7 in a row SU, but GT won 3 in row from '98 to 2000 with a last second TD in ‘98, while an incorrect call on a fumble gave them a gift in 1999. In ‘98 we won with a 3* Late Phone Play on GT & in ‘99 we used UGA as the Underdog POW in Power Sweep and our Top Weekly College Late Phone Play and won with UGA +5 in OT. LY UGA dominated with a 442-262 yd edge, and RB Verron Haynes rushed for 207 yds on 39 carries. UGA settled for an SEC record 6 FG’s which made the final seem closer than it actually was, a 31-17 UGA win as 2’ pt AD’s. GT is 9-4 ATS as an AD since 1997 and they are excited to be the dog here. The Wreck proved their critics wrong going to Raleigh & defeating NCSt giving Phil Steele’s Big Dog POW an Outright Upset in the process. UGA is 15-21 ATS as a HF since 1996 (3-2 this year). The Bulldogs have our #16 rated off & #20 def, as the Wreck have our #64 ranked off & #16 def. UGA has already clinched their first ever trip to the SEC Championship game which is next week where they have a chance to claim their first SEC Title since 1982. Both teams had an extra week to prepare for this game, but GT generally places more importance on this game as they consider the Bulldogs their biggest rival, while UGA has many rivals including Florida, Tenn, Aub & GT. This will be a big game for GT in terms of recruiting because the Dawgs have been in the national spotlight all year with many TV games while GT has had limited exposure. UGA is 0-5 ATS its L/5 home finales. The Dawgs had a much needed bye LW as they had played 10 consecutive weeks, and were banged up especially at WR. Top WR Terrence Edwards (47, 17.1) and #4 Damien Gary (27, 9.4) aren’t expected to return until next week although Edwards did practice LW, but is doubtful here. QB David Greene avg’s 218 ypg (57%) with a solid 20-8 ratio & RB Musa Smith has 952 yds (4.8). The Bulldogs have only allowed 15 pts in the 2H of the L/4 gms as the defense has adjusted to their opp’s offense. GT QB AJ Suggs is avg 186 ypg (58%) with a 10-11 ratio. RB Gordon Clinkscale has 455 yds (6.5) & WR Kerry Watkins has 61 catches (14.9). Starting FB Johnathan Jackson (ankle surg) is out rest the of the year. OT Nat Dorsey, OT Jeremy Phillips, DB Kelley Rhino & SS James Butler were all held out of practice during the bye nursing inj’s and it doesn’t look good for Rhino to return here. (call the Northcoast Full Service Line, Button #5, for their status). GT has been plagued all year with penalties & needs to play more disciplined to have a chance here instead of beating themselves. GT does have talent as the proved by outgaining the ACC’s powerhouse, FSU, 396-279 with a 24-14 FD edge & as mentioned above defeated NCSt and this game means more to them. FORECAST: Georgia Tech 17 GEORGIA 16