Northcoast Power Sweep College Other Games
OTHER GAMES
Miss St at MISSISSIPPI - Turkey Day. LY was the first time Ole Miss had been favored in the Egg Bowl since 1993. The fav is 2-5 ATS the L/7 in this series and only 3 of the L/9 games have been decided by 8 pts or more. LY we used MSU as our Thursday Night ESPN Play. The Dawgs’ huge OL wore down Ole Miss’ small DL as MSU rushed for 199 yards, and won 36-28 as 3 pt HD’s. Eli Manning threw 3 int’s, two of which bounced off UM receivers’ hands. The loss probably cost Ole Miss a bowl game, as they sat home LY despite a 7-4 record. This year the Rebels are playing not only for a bowl game, but also to avoid a losing season. UM has to be disappointed after leading LSU for the whole game LW before allowing a 4Q TD which extended Ole Miss’ losing streak to 5 games SU. MSU has lost 4 in a row SU and with their 2nd straight losing season already clinched, there have been questions about Jackie Sherrill’s job security. Manning suffered an elbow inj vs LSU which definitely hampered his throwing motion, as he threw 2 int’s and finished completing just 19 of 38 for 218 yds. MSU QB Kevin Fant has been banged up all year and sat out the 4Q LW with a knee inj. Check the status of both QB’s on our Full Service Lines (Button #5) later this week. MSU surprisingly has an SEC low 9 sacks in 11 games (yes, Joe Lee Dunn is still MSU’s DC). This is the Thursday Night ESPN Play and is available on Phil Steele’s Private Play Hotline for only $9!! Call 1-900-903-9467 or log onto the NCstore at www.ncsports.com after 5:00 EST on Wed, Nov 27th for the Thursday Night Winner!! Already 11-3 79% this year and 19-6 76% the L/25!!!
TEXAS 30 Texas A&M 20 - This game marks the 1st time in this series history that both teams are coming off a loss since 1989. The verbal jousting in this game began in October as both teams bickered about which has the better set of WR’s. These schools have met 108 times playing each other every year since 1894. Texas is 5-1-1 ATS the L/7 in this rivalry and the home team had won 5 in a row SU prior to LY. A&M hasn’t won SU or ATS in Austin since 1994. Twice in the L/5Y we have won with Texas as a 3* Late Phone Play in this series including the last time in Austin when Chris Simms lit up the Aggie D for 383 passing yards in a 43-17 win as 5’ pt HF’s. LY a 20 mph wind helped both defenses dominate as the longest offensive drive by either team was just 35 yds as Texas took care of the Aggies 21-7 in a pointspread push. Both teams are off very disappointing performances & had LW off. Texas is 9-0 ATS its L/9 home finales. Texas is 1-4 ATS as a HF this year with the lone cover coming vs Baylor by 1 pt. A&M is 4-9 as an AD since 1995. Embattled A&M HC Slocum has never had a losing conference record in his 14 seasons in College Station which is what would happen if the Horns won here. The Aggies’ outgoing AD also said that they would reject an invitation to the Humanitarian Bowl. A&M QB Reggie McNeal was the star in A&M’s upset of Oklahoma, another outright upset winner for Phil Steele’s Big Dog Play of the Week, but suffered a badly sprained ankle in the 1Q vs Missouri & is not expected to play here. That puts the offense back in the hands of long ball specialist Dustin Long. Long has avg’d 287 ypg (55%) with a 17-9 ratio in the 7 games where he is the team’s primary QB this year. Leading rusher RB Derek Farmer has battled a shoulder inj & obviously wasn’t 100% vs Missouri (6-9) but should be healthier. FB Joe Weber was moved over to the TB duties in Farmer’s stead & he has just 160 yds (3.4) in his 3 games as a starter. A&M, of course, is best known for its Wrecking Crew defense but the unit has been inconsistent this year due to a lack of depth and injuries. Going into the Nebraska game, A&M led the Big 12 in rush defense & were allowing a minuscule 77 ypg rushing (2.5). In the 4 games since then, the Aggies have allowed 233 ypg (4.4)! Starting LB Jared Morris, however, is not expected to see action in this one due to a suspension. The Crew should benefit greatly from the week off & still rank as our #20 defense. Texas’ defensive secondary was ravaged by injuries vs TT which didn’t allow them to play the dime defense needed to stop Kliff Kingsbury. UT needed the bye to heal their bumps & bruises, not to mention their wounded egos as that loss not knocked the Horns out of the Big 12 Title game & BCS aspirations. UT’s offense has struggled at times this year. The Horns avg just 141 ypg (3.5) rushing despite having one of the NCAA’s most talented runners in Cedric Benson. They avg 5.4 ypp with only Big 12 cellar dwellers Baylor & Kansas trailing them in that category. They’ve also allowed 31 sks, not a good matchup when you consider that A&M leads the Big 12 with 38 sks. The Horns’ defense had been carrying the team until Kingsbury burned them. They still rank #1 in our pass eff defense rankings & #7 overall. We will let the linesmaker decide who we like.
PITTSBURGH 27 W Virginia 23 - The visitor is 11-3 ATS in this, the “Backyard Brawl”. LY we used Pitt as our Top Weekly Late Phone Selection, and they won 23-17 as 3’ pt AF’s. This was a misleading final as Pitt actually dominated the game with a 27-10 FD edge, and a 460-172 yd edge. Pitt had 1st & goal 4 times, settling for 3 FG’s, and they were SOD once. Pitt is 5-1 ATS in their L/6 home finales. The Turf at Heinz Field has already been replaced once this year, but the field is still in bad shape with the Steelers & HS football games. The BC kicker missed 3 FG’s due to poor footing and cutback runners have also had a difficult time on this field. Pitt has to be disappointed after losing their chance to upset #1 Miami & win the BE, but still have a New Year’s Day trip to the Gator Bowl on the line in this game. They had an 11-3 FD edge and held the ball for 20:28 in the 1H vs UM, but the score was tied at 14, and UM escaped with a win. WV is elated to be 8-3 SU with a chance to play on New Year’s Day after LY’s 3-8 record. WV has now covered 6 in a row and has 2 outright road upsets of Cincy & VT this year. Pitt QB Rod Rutherford has avg 213 ypg (52%) with a 19-10 ratio. RB Brandon Miree has 709 yds (4.2) and has been a force as of late. True frosh WR Larry Fitzgerald is #1 in the BE with 53 recs (14.3). WV QB Rasheed Marshall has avg 116 ypg (53%) with an 8-4 ratio and adding 588 net yds rush (4.0). RB Avon Cobourne has 1489 yds (5.2) with Quincy Wilson adding 796 yds (6.6). WV hasn’t been forced to pass all year, but now faces the toughest rush D they’ve seen all year. The Panthers held ND to 40 yds (1.3) and VT to 130 yds (2.9). Both teams have played the “no respect” card all year, but both earned respect in national TV contests LW, and have had extra time to prepare for this rivalry. Both teams have been good to us recently with numerous Late Phone & newsletter Winners. Pitt has a more diverse offense (#48), but WV actually ranks higher at #26. Pitt’s D is ranked #18, but WV’s 3-3 stack D has also been successful (#35) because of its novelty. If Pitt can overcome their disappointment over LW’s loss, they are the better team and should bag the Gator Bowl berth at home.
VIRGINIA TECH 27 Virginia 13 - These two schools are intensely competitive each year especially in the recruiting wars which makes this game tremendously important to both teams. The Cavs are 8-14 ATS the L/22 vs the Hokies. LY VT dominated with a 31-0 score at the half, but allowed UVA to come back in the 2H for a 31-17 final, allowing a backdoor cover as 15 pt AF’s. VT finished with a 431-269 yd edge holding UVA to 8 net yds rushing for the game. VT did have a 10 day break after LW’s Wed matchup vs WV. VT is 6-3-1 ATS its L/10 home finales. Virginia is 1-6 ATS its L/7 road finales. Virg, who was predicted in the Preseason to finish 8th in the ACC, will finish no worse than 2nd with an 8-4 record (6-2 ACC). LW Virg handed 18th ranked Maryland its 1st loss in 9 gms outSCOREing the Terps 48-13. The Cavs have defeated 3 ranked teams. QB Matt Schaub is avg 229 ypg (70%) with a solid 27-6 ratio & is ranked 4th nationally in pass efficiency. RB Wali Lundy has 572 yds (3.9) & has also caught 49 passes (7.1). WR Billy McMullen has 64 catches (13.6). VT is reeling after their 3rd consecutive loss which hasn’t happened since 1992, and this is a team that just 4 weeks ago was ranked #3 in the country. They seem destined for the Continental Tire Bowl now which is a huge step down from some of the Fiesta Bowl talk of a few weeks ago. VT MLB Vegas Robinson’s return wasn’t enough to stop WV and the Hokies defense (was #1 earlier TY) now #26 and has allowed 491 ypg & 33 ppg the L/3. VT has #1 ranked Miami on deck which could be a chance to regain some respect. QB Bryan Randall is avg 155 ypg (64%) with an 11-10 ratio. RB Lee Suggs has 1092 yds (5.4) & WR Ernest Wilford has 38 catches (20.4). VT has the edge on offense (#29) & defense (#26), compared to Virg’s offense (#31) & defense (#55). We mentioned at the start of the year that UVA was very young but was playing a lot of VHT frosh and that they should improve each week and knocking off NCSt and MD back-to-back at home validates that. In their 3 toughest road trips this year however they’ve lost to FSU, Penn St and Ga Tech by an avg of 16.6 ppg. VT has lost 6 in a row ATS this year but their SU losses at home have been vs teams with solid rush D’s. UVA allows 4.5 ypc so Suggs and Kevin Jones should be able to control the ball and the defense should play closer to its standards when fresher. LW VT blew 3 TD opportunities vs WV (see News & Notes).
BOSTON COLLEGE 38 Rutgers 3 - BC is 8-2 ATS the L/10 vs Rutgers and has covered the L/4 in a row, outgaining Rut by an avg of 482-260 the L/6Y. Once again BC dominated LY as they scored TD’s on 4 of their first 5 drives and also had a 23 yd FG blk’d and were int’d at the RU 12. Rut got a 70 yd int ret with :03 left in the 1H. BC finished with 24-9 FD edge and 538-233 yd edges winning 38-7 as 30 pt AF’s. BC is 6-2 ATS its L/8 home finales and Rutgers is 1-6-1 ATS the last 8 years in their final away game. Rut is 9-29-1 ATS on artificial turf since 1992. BC QB Brian St Pierre is avg 226 ypg (58%) with a 13-14 ratio. RB Derrick Knight has 1162 yds (5.4). Rutgers has our #115 ranked offense which now must face BC’s #27 ranked def. BC’s defense has allowed 180 ypg rush (4.2) on the ground, but Rutgers probably won’t find much running room as they only avg 49 ypg rush (1.5) which ranks 2nd to last in the NCAA. True frosh QB Ryan Hart is avg 121 ypg (47%) with a 2-4 ratio in his 3 starts including facing 2 of the nation’s top defenses Miami, Fl & ND. Ryan Cubit ret’d from an elbow inj LW and is avg 82 ypg (45%) with a 5-6 ratio. The QB’s have taken a beating as the OL has allowed 50 sacks. Rut RB Markis Facyson has only 383 yds (3.3). TE LJ Smith is a pro prospect and the top receiver on the team with 31 rec (12.0). Rutgers has allowed 197 ypg rush (4.6) and rank #84 in our pass D rankings allowing 201 ypg (52%) with a 23-8 ratio. BC’s bowl fate has probably been decided as they should go to the San Francisco Bowl, but St Pierre is playing his last home game and still has a chance for a 9 win season which would be their best record since 1993. Rutgers has played tough against the big boys this year as they had a 14-3 FD edge and outgained Tenn 221-63 in the 1H, and led Miami, Fl 17-14 in the 4Q. However, ND was ready for them LW and Rut was shutdown with only 176 total yds, and 18 yds rushing. BC has a large talent edge, figures to be more motivated and has a history of rolling it up vs weaklings.
MARYLAND 38 Wake Forest 16 - The visitor is now 5-12 ATS the last 17 in this series. LY the Terps won in Week 3, 27-20, just covering as 6 pt road fav’s. On the 1st play of the game RB Bruce Perry broke off an 80 yd TD run and finished with 276 yds rushing, the 2nd highest total in team history. WF would get to the MD 35 with :40 left but was int in the EZ as the Terps held on. MD has been good HF’s under “The Fridge” going 9-1 ATS. WF is 1-11-2 ATS off a SU win since ‘99. WF had 2 weeks off & it took them almost the entire game vs Navy to get the rust off and try to put the buzz about a newspaper report that had Grobe as the front-runner to become Baylor’s HC behind them. The Deacons have established a solid run-oriented offense that avg’s 244 ypc (#1 in ACC & 9th nationally) & Grobe is 6-1-1 ATS as an away dog. WF did become bowl eligible with their win LW vs Navy, but they only have the required 6 wins & are #7 in the ACC which is probably not enough to secure a bowl berth unless they pull out an upset here. QB James MacPherson is avg 144 ypg (56%) with a 6-3 ratio. The Terps ended their 8 game winning streak, the longest streak in 24 yrs, with their loss LW to Virginia. MD, who was outscoring their opp 34.2-14.8 & ranked #6 nationally in def scoring, were held to just 13 pts LW & allowed UVA to SCORE 48. Trying to get MD to turn the game around in the 2H, Friedgen told his players that NCSt had defeated FSU & a win here would tie them for the ACC Title & a possible BCS berth. QB Scott McBrien is avg 175 ypg (57%) with a 13-10 ratio & ranks 14th nationally in pass efficiency. RB Chris Downs has 1035 yds (5.8) & Bruce Perry, who has been out most of the year with inj, has 206 yds (5.4) in 3 gms. The Terps do have the edge on offense (#33) & defense (#37), but WF continues to show improvement and have our #57 rated offense & #60 defense. Look for Maryland to rebound here and they have had no trouble piling it on vs teams.
Miami, Fl 40 SYRACUSE 24 - Miami had won 6 in a row SU in this series until the Orangemen beat them by 53 & 20 pts in 1997 & ‘98, but the Canes have bounced back in the L/3Y to win by 32, 26 and 59 and shut the Orange out the L/2Y!! The fav is 8-1 ATS the L/9 in this series. MIA is 7-2 SU and ATS the L/9 vs Syr. LY the teams were fighting for the Big East Title, and Miami simply dominated with a 25-12 FD edge and a 566-185 yd edge as 20’ pt HF’s. The last time these teams met in the dome, Miami won 26-0 as 12’ pt favs. Miami is 1-3 ATS as an AF this year while Syr is 8-3 ATS as a HD since 1990. Syr is 2-0 as a DD dog, and UM is 1-6 as a DD fav this season. The Orange (4-7) had a bye LW, and this is their bowl game because this is their first losing season since 1986 and their first ever under HC Pasqualoni. Miami was lucky to escape with a win vs Pitt LW as Pitt had a 11-3 FD edge and held the ball for 20:28 in the 1H but the score was tied at 14. UM also has a big game vs VT on deck and may be playing tight with their National Title hopes on the line every week. UM has allowed teams to run on them this year, but the teams that have caused them the most trouble have been teams with a mobile QB. Syr can set up that gameplan, but starter Troy Nunez isn’t as mobile as FSU’s Chris Rix, Pitt’s Rod Rutherford or WV’s Rasheed Marshall. UM allowed 284 ypg rush (5.2) vs those 3 and has allowed 169 ypg rush (3.9) overall. UM has our #2 overall offense which faces Syr’s #96 overall defense. UM has 2 Heisman candidates with QB Ken Dorsey avg 252 ypg (55%) with a 21-8 ratio and TB Willis McGahee with 1188 yds (6.3). Starting WR Kevin Beard (23 rec, 11.4) and one of their top DL’s Cornelius Green (31 tkls, 4 sks) were lost for the season vs Pitt with torn ACL’s. Syr QB Troy Nunes has been booed by the home fans many times, but this is his last chance for redemption. Nunes has avg 149 ypg (57%) with an 8-6 ratio, but more importantly the team is 3-1 SU & ATS with him as the starter this season. TB Walter Reyes has 1025 yds (6.1). Syr’s defense has allowed 466 ypg this season. Miami should get the SU win as Syr does not have a great D, but if the linesmaker is generous enough they could hang inside the number.
UCF 34 Ohio U 20 - Ohio has been selling trip packages for this one since June, including Walt Disney World passes to see the band march the day before the game in the Disney World Parade. Ohio seems to be treating this as a bowl game since the loss LW ended their division hopes. They did give Marshall a run for their money losing 24-21 as a 15 pt HD. UCF was able to upset Miami, Oh LW 48-31 as a 3’ pt AD. UCF QB Ryan Schneider is avg 313 ypg (62%) with a 27-15 ratio. RB Alex Haynes has returned to health with 305 yds the last two weeks. UCF is 5-2 SU & ATS in their 1st year of conference play. Ohio did cover at Florida this year. UCF gave up 300 yds on the ground in a loss to Toledo this year. In that game Toledo just wore out the Knights’ defense and Ohio’s running game does have the potential to do the same here. That running game is led by RB Chad Brinker with 1042 yds (4.8). Ohio is 9-2 ATS as a DD dog since 2000 including 4-2 this year. UCF is playing for their eighth straight week while OU had a bye two weeks ago but they did lose to BG and Miami by 51 and 18 pts on the road this year.
Oklahoma 27 OKLAHOMA ST 17 - OSU is 2-17 SU vs ranked foes since ‘98. Oklahoma had dominated the “Bedlam Battle” from 1976 to 1996 with just 1 SU loss in that span. OSU won outright the next 2 years by a combined 71-33 margin. In 1999 we used Oklahoma as a 4* Key Selection in Power Sweep and they rolled to a 44-7 win vs an OSU team that had susp 3 starting DB’s. The last time these two met in Stillwater, OU won again 12-7 but failed to cover as a 26 pt AF looking ahead to the Big 12 Title game. Although we don’t like to use the word revenge as often as others...this one definitely qualifies. OSU simply came into Norman LY and pulled off a 16-13 upset as 27 pt AD’s which kept OU out of the Big 12 Championship game and possibly a chance to defend their National Title. OSU held OU to zero yards rushing and outFD’d them 23-13. Stoops & Miles spent the offseason trading barbs which is usually a sign that a rivalry has been re-sparked. OU is 15-1-1 SU vs OSU at Lewis Field, but 3-7 ATS the L/10. OSU is 14-6 ATS the L/20 vs OU. OSU is 2-1 as a HD this year with outright upsets of Nebraska & A&M. OSU leads the Big 12 in fewest sks allowed. They feature one of the Big 12’s best kept secrets in WR Rashaun Woods. He has 86 rec’s (15.2) this year and burned the staunch OU secondary with 8 catches for 129 yds LY. OSU TB Tatum Bell has bounced back from injury to run for 784 yds (6.1) in Big 12 play this year. OSU has our #30 offense. The Cowboy defense is 10th in the Big 12. The Sooners clinched the Big 12 South with their whipping of TT LW. RB Quentin Griffin has 1450 yds (6.8). He has rushed for 100 yds seven gms in a row & Stoops said LW that Griffin has fresher legs in the stretch drive this year due to the Sooners limiting his carries in the 1H of the year in goal line situations. After being burned for 4 TD passes vs A&M, OU’s defense rebounded to hold Kliff Kingsbury to a season low 187 yds and they have our #6 overall defense. OSU played Texas the week before their showdown with OU and only lost 17-15 but have also lost by 35 to Kansas St and 25 to Texas Tech this year. OU did only beat Missouri on the road by 7 looking ahead to that Texas showdown earlier this year and have the Title game on deck vs Colorado here.
TCU 38 Memphis 10 - TCU has had two byes in the L/5W. The Tigers are just 10-15-1 ATS in their L/26 games in Nov. UM is 2-7 ATS in their L/9 as an AD. LW the Frogs were at E Caro and had their 8 game winning streak snapped losing 31-28 as an 8’ pt AF. It was a very misleading final (see Turnovers on page 2). Mem hosted Army and rolled 38-10 as a 14’ pt HF. They had a 434-167 yd edge and outFD’d the Cadets 26-11. The game was actually 10-10 at the half but UM held Army to just 67 total 2H yards to snap a six game losing streak. While TCU rates a slight edge here on offense they rate solid edges on D at #20 (UM #66) and special teams #27 (UM #101). The Frogs true frosh RB Lonta Hobbs has played in just six games but has 665 yds (6.9). QB Sean Stilley is avg 164 ypg (55%) and a 5-9 ratio. They have really struggled in his starts avg’ing 14.7 ppg less and 36 ypg less on offense than they did under rFr Tye Gunn. They were 3-0-1 ATS under Gunn as compared to just 1-5 ATS under Stilley and Gunn played vs the tougher defenses. On D they allow just 246 ypg total defense. At home they are allowing just 203 ypg on D and winning by an avg of 24-10. They have allowed just 33 ypg rush (1.1) in their L/7. The DL has also recorded 41 sacks. Memphis is just 1-4 ATS on the road in 2002 losing by an avg of 36-17. UM QB Danny Wimprine is avg 541 ypg (56%) and a 21-17 ratio. He does have just a 7-11 ratio in his L/5 starts and will be facing our #7 rated DB’s in our pass efficiency D ratings that are allowing 188 ypg (41%) and a 14-15 ratio. Mem does allow 186 ypg rush (4.2) on D. The Frogs are still playing for the CUSA Title & the Liberty Bowl bid while UM is closing another disappointing season. With TCU off a HUGE misleading final they gain some line value & already beat a much stronger S Miss team by 30 here.
COLORADO ST 41 Unlv 20 - CSU is 6-0 SU but just 2-4 ATS the L/6 vs UNLV. LY CSU travelled to Vegas off 2 tough losses but used a blk’d punt and a long PR to eek out a 26-24 win as 4’ pt AD’s. CSU is 6-3 ATS the L/9 home finales and 35-14 ATS their final 5 games since 1996. CSU is 3-8 ATS as a HF L/11. Robinson was not happy with a bye this late in the year, with 1 game remaining & the Rebels out of bowl contention. There will probably be more youngsters playing here. UNLV ranks #3 in the conference w/26 sks with the league’s top tackler in Adam Seward while Jamaal Brimmer leads the MWC w/16 tfl. QB Jason Thomas is avg 176 ypg (48.9%) with an 8-7 ratio. RB Joe Haro has 715 yds (4.9) & after starting the season slowly Dominique Dorsey has recently emerged & has rushed for 552 yds (7.5). LW CSU clinched the MWC Title with their win over N Mex despite being outgained 307-252 & only having 9 total FD’s. This may be a flat spot for the Rams as they are #13 in the polls, have wrapped up the league title, & are headed to the Liberty Bowl. LY Louisville was ranked #17 after beating E Car, had won the CUSA Title & accepted their Liberty Bowl bid. That left them in a flat spot & they lost to TCU. CSU ranks #18 in the country in rush offense & is led by Cecil “The Diesel” Sapp, who has 1338 yds (4.5) for the season, but only played sparingly LW because of a turf toe inj. Sapp only needs 150 yds here to break the school record. QB Bradlee Van Pelt is avg 153 ypg (54%) with a 9-5 ratio & has rushed for 813 yds (6.0). The Rams have the edge on offense (#26) & defense (#52) in our rankings, compared to UNLV rated #66 offense & #83 defense.
Louisville 31 HOUSTON 17 - In the last meeting here in 2000 we used UL as a Key Selection and a Late Phone Play and they won 32-13 with a 372-176 yard edge as an 11 pt AF on a rainy, windy day. LY they won 34-10 but failed to cover as a 32’ pt HF. UL is 12-3 ATS in the final two games of the season the L/7Y and they are 8-2 ATS in their L/10 as an AF. UH has struggled down the stretch with a 12-27 ATS mark in their L/39 November games. LW they hosted South Florida and lost 32-14 as a 13 pt HD. They actually had a 21-15 FD edge and outgained the Bulls but had a CUSA record 7 int’s while SF did not commit a single TO. Louisville hosted UAB and won 41-21 as an 18 pt HF. They led 34-7 before giving up two late TD’s. While Houston rates a slight edge on offense the Cards have our #44 rated defense (UH #100) and #4 special teams to Houston’s #87. QB Dave Ragone is avg 228 ypg (55%) and a solid 22-9 ratio despite playing behind an inexperienced OL that has allowed 41 sacks. UH has our #94 rated DB’s in our pass efficiency D ratings. On defense the Cards allow just 309 ypg total D including 111 ypg rush (2.8). The DL has also recorded 32 sacks. On special teams they have blocked 9 punts, scored 3 TD’s off blk’d punts and also have 2 KR TD’s and a PR TD. Houston RB Joffrey Reynolds has 1396 yds (5.1). QB Nick Eddy is avg 179 ypg (50%) and a 13-18 ratio. UL allows just 47% completions. UL is stomping foes with a losing record by an avg of 37-19. They have a slim chance of winning the CUSA crown but Houston unexpectedly fired HC Dimel last Sunday which should fire up the Cougars as this will be his last game as their HC.
S MISSISSIPPI 27 E Carolina 13 - The visitor is 9-2-1 ATS the last 12 in this series. From ‘96-’99 SM won by an avgerage score of 33-12, but in the last meeting here in 2000 they lost 14-9 as a 6 pt HF in the rain and mud. (We had a 4* College Totals Club Play on the Under). LY EC had a 25-21 FD edge but could not overcome being -5 in the TO ratio despite dominating this game early with a 157-13 yard edge and 10-0 lead after the 1Q as they settled for a 43 yd FG and were SOD at the SM 32. EC fumbled on their own 44 and settled for a 29 yd FG to trail 25-21 in the 3Q. EC had a snap over the P’s head and SM rec’d at the 21 to set up the FG. EC drove to the SM 35 but were int’d and SM held on. EC is on the road for the third time in four weeks. LW they were outgained 445-236 and outFD’d 22-9 but were able to overcome a 28-17 deficit for their first victory vs a ranked foe since beating Miami, Fl in 1999. SM was at Tulane and lost 31-10 as a 6’ pt AF. They actually had the FD edge but QB Micky D’Angelo had two int’s and two fumbles that led to TD’s. EC rates a BIG edge on offense at #58 (SM #102) while SM rates a HUGE edge on D at #48 (EC #106). RB Art Brown has 1029 yds (4.8). QB Paul Troth is avg 198 ypg (50%) and a 14-18 ratio. SM’s pass D allows just 166 ypg (47%) and a 4-14 ratio. They have been a much better team at home in 2002 and they are winning at “The Rock” by an avg of 30-15. RB Derrick Nix has 1055 yds (5.6) but the OL has allowed 41 sacks. QB D’Angelo is avg 160 ypg (53%) and a 6-6 ratio while the EC DB’s have allowed an 18-8 ratio. WR Chris Johnson has 21 rec in the L/3 games since D’Angelo returned to the lineup. On defense they allow 338 ypg total D, but surprisingly they are yielding 172 ypg rush (3.7). The DL has 33 sacks. SM is avg just 270 ypg in their L/5 while their D is allowing just 280 ypg their L/3. Each team is off a misleading final giving SM the line value here.
NEW MEXICO 30 Wyoming 20 - LY NM squeaked out a 30-29 win at Laramie as 3 pt AF’s, but 10 of the Lobos’ points were the result of 2 Casey Bramlet int’s and a missed XP by WY could’ve sent the game to OT. Wyoming is off a bye, so they should be in better physical shape than the Lobos who are off two physical road games vs MWC foes BYU & Colo St. New Mexico is 9-5 ATS their L/14 home finales. NM is 16-6 as a HF since 1996. This will be HC Koenning’s last game as it was announced in the bye week that he will be fired. The Cowboys ranked last in the MWC & #115 nationally in defense as they are allowing 34.8 ppg, 296 pass ypg, and 198 rush ypg. Surprisingly, Wyoming has only been outscored by 14 total pts in MWC action with their biggest loss being by 8 ATS. QB Bramlet is avg 281 ypg (60%) with a 23-15 ratio. RB Derek Armah has 561 yds (4.8). N Mex needs a win here to become bowl eligible & will be #2 in the MWC as Air Force has dropped 3 conf gms. LW NM outgained the Rams 307-252 & held them to just 9 FD. Frosh RB Dontrell Moore has 941 total yds (4.6). QB Casey Kelly is avg 137 ypg (58%) with a 9-6 ratio. The Lobos continue to do well in the 2H of the season like they did LY & are 5-1 ATS the L/6 TY. N Mex defense is tough at home and have our #46 rated D compared to the Cowboys #104 D. WY does have a large edge on offense with our #60 rating, compared to NM’s #102.
MARSHALL 27 Ball St 24 - These teams last met in ‘98 when Marshall won 42-10 as a 30 pt HF. Marshall is 6-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in regular season home finales. They have won the MAC East for the 6th straight time and will host either Toledo or N Illinois next week in the MAC Championship game. They have also accepted a bid to the GMAC bowl (Dec 18th) and normally teams struggle the week after accepting a bowl bid. They were in a very similar situation 2 years ago against Ohio, with nothing really to play for and lost outright. LW Marshall saw the return of QB Byron Leftwich from injury and took over for a struggling Stan Hill and led Marshall to a 24-21 victory as a 15 pt AF. Including that relief effort of 219 yds, Leftwich is avg 357 ypg (67%) with a 20-8 ratio. Ball St is coming off a 41-21 win over Buffalo as a 16 pt HF. In that game RB Marcus Merriweather ran for 224 yds, his 3rd straight 200 yd game, a Ball St record. They have won 5 straight ATS and are in their normal late season surge. Leading the way for BSU is QB Andy Roesch who started the last 6 and is avg 190 ypg (56%) with a 14-3 ratio including two 5 TD games. Marshall will probably protect Leftwich for the Championship Game and Bowl. They were so concerned about his injury that they only used him between the 20’s LW. Marshall has our #38 rated offense compared to Ball St’s #96 and also has the advantage on defense with our #79 ranked group compared to the Cardinals #87 but a BSU win would make them 7-5 and make their season while Marshall has a bigger game on deck.
TOLEDO 34 Bowling Green 30 - LY Toledo had just clinched a trip to the MAC Championship game to be played the next week. They also accepted the bid to the Motor City Bowl. They sat starting QB Tavares Bolden in their meaningless game vs BG. Thanks to 3 fumbled kickoffs and 6 TO’s BG scored over 50 points vs Toledo for the 1st time since 1959. BG won 56-21 as 3 pt road dogs. BG treated it as their bowl game as the players were upset that both MAC Bowl bids had already been decided and they received no consideration. This year the rivalry importance is renewed and Toledo will be at home. Toledo went to N Illinois LW and won 33-30 as a 1 pt AD with a TD with :41 left although they did allow NIU RB Michael Turner to gain 213 yds. QB Brian Jones is avg 242 ypg (72%) with an 18-6 ratio. Toledo is 12-0 SU and 9-3 ATS in their home finale. BG’s running game is led by RB Joe Alls with 777 yds (6.8). The #2 rusher for the Falcons is QB Josh Harris who has 679 yds (4.1) while passing for 205 ypg (57%) with a 19-9 ratio. BG is 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS their last 3 visits to the Glass Bowl including a 51-17 loss in their last visit. BG is 9-2 SU this season but has faced only 2 teams with winning records and lost both meetings SU & ATS. The Rockets have the advantage on both sides of the ball with our #22 offense and our # 68 defense compared to the Falcons with our #39 offense and our #88 defense. Toledo has now won 3 straight SU & ATS after a Nov 2 bye. This is BG’s bowl game and keep in mind that, they were in the Top 25 at the start of November and their loss two weeks ago to S Florida could be chalked up to unbeaten letdown. BGSU can all out while Toledo has the pressure of needing a win to get to the MAC Title game.
Alabama 34 HAWAII 17 - This is Alabama’s bowl game. When the Tide learned that they would be banned from bowls for 2 years, they scheduled this game after Washington St backed out of it to give the juniors & seniors a “reward” for staying with the program. They also easily sold out their allotment of tickets. Coach Franchione is familiar with the Warriors as he is 5-0 ATS, 4-1 ATS vs Hawaii in his career (3-0 ATS at N Mex, 1-1 ATS at TCU) with a 19.6 ppg avg margin of victory. Scheduling late season games at Hawaii has been used by schools for years as a popular recruiting tool. Not surprisingly many high caliber teams have fallen prey to the warm weather, beautiful surroundings & short week of preparation and have treated their trip to the Islands like a vacation. Cincy didn’t find paradise here, as their SU loss here LW was ugly with a huge melee on the field after the game as the Warriors accused the Bearcats of purposefully injuring star QB Timmy Chang. Although Chang left the field in a wheelchair LW, his father said that there was no major ligament damage & that he’ll be ready to roll vs the Tide. Reporters also accused the Hawaii officials of extreme bias as evidenced by the penalties (2 for Hawaii, 14 for Cincy). UH has won their L/7 ATS when they’re a HD in the L/3 games of the season covering against the likes of Michigan & Wisconsin. This is the Tide’s first game on turf since 1999. Hawaii is 9-5 ATS as a HD under Jones. The Tide has faced just 2 of the NCAA’s Top 60 pass attacks this year and rank #33 in our pass eff defense rankings allowing 161 ypg (50%) with a 9-14 ratio. UA has our #4 overall defense. UH has our #3 offense with Chang is avg 321 ypg (56%) with a 20-14 ratio. UH has attempted the least amount of rushes in the NCAA so the 11 sks they’ve allowed is an impressive number. The Hawaii defense ranks just #65 in our rankings. They’ve faced just 2 teams that currently have a winning record so they’re making a quantum leap up in the strength of their opponent for this one. Bama has our #11 offense. QB Tyler Watts is avg 183 ypg (64%) with a 6-3 ratio in the 7 games that he has been the team’s primary QB. UA’s tag team of Shaud Williams & Santonio Beard have run for 1246 yds (5.6) & 14 TD’s. After the Iron Bowl loss OC Koenning said that UA practiced a new formation all LW that they never used vs the Tigers so it is possible that they’ll spring it on the Warriors this week. Alabama is off of their crushing loss to rival Auburn in which the Tide players said their mission was to prove that they were the SEC’s top team this year. Since that goal wasn’t achieved, will they still treat this as a reward? The Tide must get the bad taste of the Auburn loss out of their mouths before the offseason.
USC 24 Notre Dame 10 - The dog is 6-2 ATS the L/8 in this series. ND has won the L/2Y both SU & ATS including their 27-16 win LY as 1 pt HD’s as a 3* Late Phone Winner for us. ND outrushed the USC 208-60 in that game. ND is 9-3-1 ATS when closing the season vs their cross country rivals. The Trojans have not done well outside of Pac 10 play going 2-8 ATS the L/3Y. At the same time they are 6-14 ATS as HF’s but are 3-2 this year. Willingham, of course, is very familiar with USC from his days at Stanford & is 5-2 ATS & 4-3 SU vs the Trojans in his career. The Irish have gone 3-0 SU & ATS as an AD this year and have pulled the outright upset in all 4 games they have been a dog. LW USC played in the battle of LA and are 2-5 ATS vs the Irish after facing the Bruins since ‘88 but 2-1 in the L/3. Once in this series we did use one of our rare 5* Late Phone Plays and USC covered at ND as a dog in 1989 for us (with Rodney Peete at QB). ND had a much easier opponent LW in Rutgers winning easily 42-0 outgaining the Knights 478-176. QB Carlyle Holliday is avg 170 ypg (52%) with a 10-2 ratio and RB Ryan Grant has 1,001 yds (4.4). USC still can go to the Rose Bowl if Wash St loses next week. The Trojans have been working on the BCS reps trying to position themselves for one of those bowls in case the Rose falls through and a victory over ND would certainly help their cause. USC is led by Heisman hopeful QB Carson Palmer is avg 292 ypg (62%) with an outstanding 28-8 ratio. True Fr WR Mike Williams is 3 yds short of 1000 and has 65 catches (15.3). ND has a slight adv on the defensive side of the ball (#3 vs #5) and spec teams (#51 vs #64) while USC has a huge edge on offense (#2 vs #61). Trojans’ HC Carroll had noted at the start of November that the team needed to take a 4 step approach to ending the season and they took the first 3 steps big time winning by an avg 45-17 score. We side with the home team here as they have played the tougher schedule and have the offense to make the difference in this battle between two Top 5 defenses. USC comes up #2 overall in our ranking and ND’s road wins over Mich St, Florida St and Air Force have lost some luster.
MIDDLE TENNESSEE 37 Utah St 30 - Next year this will be a SBC game. This is the first meeting between these two. Utah State is coming off a late season bye week, their third of the year. MTSU is coming off a disappointing loss at home vs conf foe N Texas 30-20 as a 2’ pt HD. MT RB Dwone Hicks has 842 yds (5.4) despite missing 2 games with an injury. QB Andrico Hines who has also had an injury plagued season and is avg 158 ypg (59%) with a 5-6 ratio. Utah St QB Jose Fuentes is avg 284 ypg (54%) with a 17-14 ratio. The Aggies have avg just 92 ypg on the ground. They are 14-9 ATS vs current SBC teams since ‘94, including 1-1 this year. The Aggies are only 5-15 ATS as an AD since 1999 including 1-4 this year. MTSU was disappointing LW but how interested will Utah St be with a losing season clinched?