Northcoast Power Sweep Pro Selections
NFL KEY SELECTIONS:
4* KANSAS CITY over Arizona - We won with a 2* in Power Sweep LY on Arizona who won 24-16 as 2’ pt HD. They split the FD’s 20-20 but the Chiefs had a 459-363 yd edge & Trent Green was picked of in the EZ with :05 left for the Cardinals win. The Chiefs are 1-7 ATS as HF’s (0-2 TY) & Arizona is 9-3 ATS as an AD. The Chiefs as a HF of 7’ or more are 8-2 ATS & this will be the 1st time since 1999 that this has happened. The Cardinals’ defense started the season strong & at their bye had the #16 ranked defense & was 9th vs the run. Since then they have allowed 161 ypg rushing (4.5 ypc) & 243 ypg passing (70%) with a 12-7 ratio dropping the defense to #29 overall & #26 vs the rush. The Chiefs’ defense has been allowing 125 ypg rushing (5.0) & 312 ypg passing (68%) with a 21-11 ratio making the defense #32 overall & #19 vs the rush. The Cardinals have been beat up offensively TY losing 3 WR, an OL & now are out RB Thomas Jones with a broken hand. Undrafted Marcell Shipp did a good job LW rushing for 135 yds (8.4) but the Raiders wanted to force Jake Plummer & his sore shoulder to play catch up. Kansas City is in a huge flat spot here after a shoot out against Seattle & a big intrastate rivalry game against the Rams who Dick Vermeil used to coach. Arizona has now lost 6 straight including LW against a Raider team in a similar flat spot & we look for that to continue here. FORECAST: KANSAS CITY 40 Arizona 16
3* CINCINNATI over Baltimore - BAL won the 1st game TY between these 2 teams 38-27 as a 5 pt HF. CIN was outFD’d 21-20 & outgained BAL 372-325 but 4 Bengal TO’s including 3 INT’s by Jon Kitna did them in. The Ravens moved to 9-2 ATS in the series with the win. The Bengals are 3-8 ATS at home the L/11 including not covering at all TY. Before the bye the Bengals were being outFD’d 20-17 & outgained 342-266 with a point total of 181-51. Since then they have cut the FD margin to 21-19 & have actually outgained their opponents 370-342 with a positive scoring margin of 130-127. Three times in the last 5 weeks the Bengals have had chances to win late before Jeff Blake took the QB reins the Ravens were being outFD’d 21-16 & outgained by 349-268 with a scoring deficit of 111-104. In the L/5 games BAL has cut the FD margin to 17-17 & have been outgained their foes 327-276 with a scoring shortage of 116-93. The Bengals offense is #10 the L/4W while the Ravens is #30 & although Ray Lewis may make another return for this game we side with the Bengals. FORECAST: CINCINNATI 17 Baltimore 13
OTHER SELECTIONS:
2* CLEVELAND over Carolina - The last time these teams met was in 1999 when Browns lost 31-17 as 5 pt HD’s. The Browns are 1-4 ATS as a HF vs teams not from Cincinnati. The Panthers have had nothing but bad luck since their bye week with injuries, suspensions & player conduct problems. The Browns on the other hand are getting their players healthier & more confident down the stretch as evidenced by William Green’s performance the last 2 weeks 210 yds (4.0 ypc). In non-division play the Panthers did fairly well as they had a slight 16-15 FD edge & a 317-264 yd edge with a 102-75 point differential. However, that was before the 5 NFC South games which took a toll on the team physically & mentally. The Browns are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS their last 5 games & despite being outFD’d 18-16 & outgained 344-296 and have managed to find ways to win as their 129-96 point margin shows. Prior to this the Browns were big 9’ pt HF’s against Houston who outFD’d them 17-14 & outgained them 354-230. Carolina is a warm weather team traveling to a cold weather environment after a 41-0 shutout & with the Panthers losing 3 straight ATS & the Browns winning 5 straight ATS we side with the home team. FORECAST: CLEVELAND 21 Carolina 10
2* Denver over SAN DIEGO - Just like the last time these teams met Denver is off a Sunday Night game & those results are unavailable. Denver won 26-9 as a 5’ pt HF & had a 20-16 FD edge & a 417-314 yd edge. Denver is 4-1 ATS the last 5 in San Diego but are 0-5-1 ATS the last 6 division road games. San Diego is 5-12 ATS at home off a road loss. Denver on the road has a 24-17 FD edge & has a 392-236 yd edge & has outscored opponents 28-21. The Chargers at home have a 20-18 FD edge & have a tiny 352-351 yd advantage with an avg home score of 23-22. Steve Beuerlein may get the start here with Brian Griese possibly out with a knee sprain from 2 weeks ago. We really don’t feel the Charger defense is as strong as believed as they are 28th overall & 29th in the NFL vs the pass. Over the last 4 weeks it has dropped to the bottom of the league allowing 309 ypg passing (68%) with a 8-1 ratio. In LaDainian Tomlinson’s 3 meetings against the Broncos he has been held to 181 total yds rushing (3.4) & he should continue to struggle here against a defense allowing 87 ypg rushing (3.8) on the road. FORECAST: Denver 23 SAN DIEGO 10
OTHER GAMES:
NNew England 27 DETROIT 16 - Thanksgiving. DET has done well on Thursday’s with a 10-4 ATS record & NE is 2-10 ATS as an AF on art turf. This is the last AFC/NFC game for each team this year. In those games Detroit has been outFD’d 25-15 & outgained 380-273 vs those teams with a losing score of 104-52. They are 0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS vs the AFC. New England has split the FD’s 20-20 & been outgained 339-328 vs NFC North teams with a score of 75-67. They are 2-1 SU & 1-2 ATS against them & this game will feature Joey Harrington vs Bill Belichick on national TV & Belichick is sure to throw the drumstick & everything else against him. Detroit is off an OT game which they lost partially because HC Marty Mornhinweg won the coin toss & deferred a week after blowing a coverage call on a 2 point conversion so the HC edge sides with the Patriots as do we.
Washington 17 DALLAS 10 - Thanksgiving. DAL is in a similar role to LY when they were rebuilding at the point in the year & are evaluating the talent for the future. The Cowboys have done very well lately in this series as they are 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS with the dog being 15-7 ATS the L/22. The Redskins are 9-25-1 ATS as a division favorite while Dallas is 10-1 ATS as a division HD. QB Chad Hutchinson has thrown for 301 yds (67%) with a 2-2 ratio which is respectable for a rookie QB who had not taken a snap prior to 1997. LW marked the 1st time TY a Cowboy QB has thrown for 300 yds TY. However he has been sacked 15 times & fumbled 6 times indicating poor OL protection & poor pocket presence. When Spurrier took the Redskins job he said that even if they didn’t make the playoffs they would still be ready for the Cowboys TY. The Redskins just beat a Rams team whom we rank in the Top 10 of our Power Ratings & have enough momentum to win here.
Miami 20 BUFFALO 17 - In the 1st meeting between these teams Buffalo won 23-10 as a 5 pt AD. Ray Lucas was making his 1st start since 1999 & it showed as he threw for 4 INT’s & had 2 fumbles. The Dolphins outFD’d the Bills 17-15 but were outgained 294-287. Buffalo’s pass defense is #18 right now allowing 229 ypg passing (60%) with a 20-5 ratio. If you omit the 4 int’s vs Lucas they only have 1 other int TY & that was at home vs Joey Harrington. Each team has played 4 division games & both teams are 1-3 SU & ATS. Miami has outFD’d div foes 18-16 & outgained them 320-248 with an avg score of 19-13. Buffalo in turn has outFD’d them 21-20 & been outgained 325-317 with an avg score shortcoming of 29-18. There is an outside chance that Jay Fiedler may return to play TW but the Dolphins may hold off on that as the cold weather may make taking snaps more painful than it needs to be for him. Also Ray Lucas has been playing with confidence the last 3 weeks as his passing avg of 214 yds (66%) & 2-0 ratio shows.
GREEN BAY 34 Chicago 13 - The Packers are finally home after playing in a pair of environments they don’t particularly care for in Minnesota & Tampa Bay. The first game between these teams was a Monday Night Winner for us as the Packers won 34-21 as a 1 pt AD. The Packers split the FD’s 20-20 but outgained the Bears 457-380 as Brett Favre threw for 359 yds (67%) with a 3-0 ratio. Green Bay has now won 5 of the last 6 ATS in the series. The weather may be a factor here & the Packers under QB Favre are 23-4-1 ATS in the regular season when the temp is 34û or lower. Chicago is 10-3 ATS the last 13 as an AD in division games but those games were with teams a lot healthier than the Bears are now. Both teams have played 4 division games TY & the Bears have been outFD’d 21-17 & outgained 387-297 with an avg score of 26-19. The Packers have a 21-18 FD edge & 442-359 yd edge with an avg score of 33-24. When these teams played on MNF the Packers were in a more desperate situation & after 2 losses need a win at the Bears expense in order to keep up with the Bucs for home field advantage.
JACKSONVILLE 24 Pittsburgh 20 - The home team is 11-3 ATS in this series & the series is 3-10-1 O/U. The fav is also 10-4 ATS in this series as well. LY the home team had a 36-29 FD edge & a 701-515 yd edge with a 41-10 pt total. QB Kordell Stewart assumed the mantle LW for Tommy Maddox & in the last game & a half he has thrown for 360 yds (81%) with a 3-0 ratio. At home the Jaguars have been outFD’d 20-18 & outgained 321-318 with an avg score of 25-17. The Steelers on the road have outFD’d foes 21-19 & outgained foes 348-309 with an avg score of 26-23. Pittsburgh is very beat up right now especially on defense with 2 LB’s (Larry Foote & James Farrior) & 2 backup Safeties (Mike Logan & Hank Poteat) missing LW. OC Jeff Hartings is also out. Pittsburgh’s defense is only #20 right now & is #28 against the pass. JAX’s defense is #16 right now & #17 vs the pass & but more importantly they are +8 in turnovers compared to a -1 for the Steelers. The Jaguars pounce here & get the outright win.
Atlanta 30 MINNESOTA 27 - The Falcons come into the Metrodome with a huge amount of momentum here especially since they are in 2nd place in the NFC South with the tie-breakers over the Saints. They are 7-3-1 & could easily have been two games better if they had beaten Green Bay and Chicago earlier TY. They are 5-0 ATS on the road TY & have split the FD’s 22-22 while outgaining foes 401-382 with an avg road score of 33-23. The Vikings at home own a 22-20 FD edge & have split the yardage 374-373 with a home score of 27-24 & are 17-4 ATS as a HD since 1990. Atlanta currently holds the #3 slot in the NFL rushing with 149 ypg (4.5) which is pretty impressive considering that the leading rusher is Warrick Dunn (643 yds, 3.9) who was 26th in the NFL prior to LW. The Vikings are 6th vs the rush allowing 98 ypg (3.6) rushing but detractors are quick to point out that is because they are fairly easy to pass on as their 290 ypg (64%) with a 23-10 ratio & 99.4 opposing QB rating shows. The Falcons defense is allowing 120 ypg rushing (4.6) which is due to the undersized front three but only 224 ypg passing (54%) & 14-15 ratio with an opposing QB rating of 72.4. This is the 2nd of a 3 game road trip for the Falcons against a tough HD & they have Tampa Bay up next so lookahead may be a factor here.
NY GIANTS 17 Tennessee 14 - The last time these teams met was in 2000 when the Titans won 28-14 as 5 pt HF’s. The Titans return to a more comfortable role as an AD as they are 25-13 in that spot & are 7-2 ATS in that role vs NFC teams (not including Seattle). The Giants are 7-14 ATS as HF’s & have dropped 7 of the last 8 & are 2-8 ATS at home after a SU road loss. The Giants at home have a huge 21-13 FD edge & have outgained foes 342-246 but only have an avg score of 15-15. The Titans on the road have balanced the FD’s 19-19 & have pretty much done the same with yds with a slight 344-341 deficit & have been outscored 25-21 on the road. The Giants should get WR Ron Dixon back off a knee sprain & Herman Moore is another week into the system & football shape here. The Giants are not a flashy team as their #13 offense & #5 defense shows but they are playing solid football especially after Jim Fassell took over the OC play calling duties.
Houston at INDIANAPOLIS - The Colts won the 1st matchup vs the Texans delivering a 3* Winner for us in Power Sweep as an 11’ pt AF owning a 16-10 FD & 339-204 yd edges. The Colts really don’t have too much of an advantage in a dome surrounding as Houston has kept their roof closed for 4 of the 6 home games so far TY. The Colts are 3-9-1 ATS at home in a division game. Dom Capers is now 7-2 ATS as a DD dog as a HC. TY at home the Colts have outFD’d teams 22-16 & outgained them 360-274 with an avg 20-18 score & in their last home game vs Dallas they were only up 6-3 with 5:00 to go. The Texans on the road have been outFD’d 20-12 & outgained 286-238 with a road score of 22-17 in the opponents favor. This is a very tough game to call with out knowing last Sunday Night’s results & there is no line as we went to press. Houston has delivered 3 straight winners for us & for right now we are going to pass until we see a line.
St Louis 17 PHILADELPHIA 10 - PHI and stand-in QB Koy Detmer are off LW’s MNF game vs the 49ers & those results are unknown. LY these teams met in the 1st game of the season & in the playoffs with STL taking both SU. STL pushed the first 20-17 as a 3 pt AF & won the 2nd SU 29-24 as an 11 pt HF. In both games the Rams had a 44-35 FD edge & outgained the Eagles 735-590 winning the FD & ydge battle in both. The Eagles are 10-5-2 ATS as a HD & 5-2-1 ATS when a non-division HD. LW Kurt Warner also made his 1st appearance after breaking a finger in his throwing hand. Warner started hot throwing for 15 of 15 & ended the game throwing for 301 yds (69%) with 2-1 ratio. The Rams now have to run the table for any shot at a playoff game which is going to be difficult after losing LG Tom Nutten to a broken leg & having to play in Veteran Stadium in the cold against another quality secondary. On the Rams’ side this game is art turf & they should get Faulk back from a high ankle sprain though & do have Bulger on the bench if Warner struggles. We side with a very desperate road team that has the #3 offense & #8 defense in a must win situation.
SAN FRANCISCO 37 Seattle 20 - Seattle hosted SF in the 1st game on MNF with the infamous Terrell Owens “Sharpie Incident”. Sf won 28-21 as 3 pt AF’s splitting the FD’s 24-24 & held a small ydge advantage of 351-334. Mike Holmgren has had a rough year with all the inj’s & has gone into evaluation mode for next year. He did get some good news LW as WR Darrell Jackson returned from his concussion & LB Anthony Simmons returned from his high ankle sprain. Seattle is 8-19-1 ATS in division games & are 3-8 ATS when an AD in division games. The 49ers are 10-5-1 ATS as a HF & 3-6 ATS as a DD HF. QB Matt Hasselbeck rallied LW & has now thrown for 239 ypg (66%) with a 4-3 ratio his last 5 games starting. Jeff Garcia prior to Monday has avg’d 219 ypg (64%) with a 14-6 ratio as both teams figure to do some passing in this game.
Tampa Bay at NEW ORLEANS - The Saints won the 1st game in OT when a Tom Tupa punt in the EZ went bad & he threw an interception to Saints defender who scampered in for the 26-20 win. This game will go along way to determining who wins the NFC South especially with the Falcons’ resurgence. Call on Sunday after 11:00 am EST to Phil Steele’s Private Play Hotline for the Sunday Night ESPN winner. 1-900-903-9467 for just $9 or log on to the NCStore at www.ncsports.com!
NY Jets at OAKLAND - Monday Night. This is Oakland’s 3rd prime time game in 4 weeks. This game continues the old AFL rivalry which included the infamous Heidi Game. LY these teams met twice in Oakland. The Jets snuck away with the win in the last regular season game 24-22 but the Raiders snagged the victory in the playoffs 38-24. Who Will We Choose?