Opening Line Report
By Stephen Nover
VegasInsider.com
The New York Giants have won six games in a row. But that’s not enough for them to open as home favorites against Dallas.
Linesmakers opened Dallas minus 1 against New York. One of those professional oddsmakers is Dan O’Brien of Las Vegas Sports Consultants. He actually made Dallas minus 2.
“Everybody is jumping prematurely on the Giants’ bandwagon,” O’Brien said. “I think Dallas clearly is the superior team.”
O’Brien points out the Giants’ last four victories have been against the Jets, Falcons, 49ers and Dolphins. Those are the four bottom teams in his power rankings.
“They’re improved, but they’re not that good,” O’Brien said of the Giants. They got torched by Dallas (45-35) opening week and they lost to the other good team (Green Bay) they played.”
The Packers defeated the Giants on the road, 35-13, in Week 2. The Giants haven’t lost since although the scheduling dynamics have worked well for them. The Giants got to play the Eagles when they were missing Brian Westbrook and offensive left tackle William Thomas.
The Giants also got to face Atlanta starting Joey Harrington, the 49ers starting Trent Dilfer and Dolphins starting Cleo Lemon.
Dallas will be playing on the east coast a second consecutive week. The Cowboys have failed to cover during their last three road games against the Giants. New York was idle this past Sunday following its matchup in London against the Dolphins.
In a matchup of what could be billed “The Quarterback Bust Bowl” the Falcons are plus 4 ½ at Carolina. If there’s a worst starter than Harrington or Tarvaris Jackson, it could be the Panthers’ David Carr.
How bad is Carr? Vinny Testaverde could barely walk last Thursday and the Panthers still weren’t ready to announce Carr as their starter hoping the 43-year-old Testaverde somehow still might be able to start.
Carr has succeeded in turning Steve Smith, perhaps the NFC’s most dangerous wide receiver entering the season, into a non-factor. Smith has fewer than 47 receiving yards in five of his last six games.
One of the toughest lines to make was on the St. Louis Rams-New Orleans Saints, O’Brien said. LVSC’s linesmakers had the Saints favored from anywhere to 8 ½ to 13 points. O’Brien was on the high end at minus 13. New Orleans was at minus 11 ½ on Monday.
“This was a tricky line for me,” O’Brien said. “The Saints are looking like they’re coming back to where they were last season. But you certainly expect better from the Rams.”
The line probably isn’t higher because the Rams are optimistic about having Steven Jackson back and are off a bye. New Orleans is just 3-8 against the spread in its past 11 home games.
The Saints have won four games in a row. They could be worth a shot on the future book to win the wide open NFC. The Saints were 15-1 to capture the NFC championship at the Station Casino and Caesars Palace properties in Las Vegas.
Green Bay is minus 6 hosting Minnesota. The oddsmakers at LVSC sent out Packers minus 7.
Minnesota had a fantastic showing against San Diego, but I’m surprised the number is lower than seven,” O’Brien said. “Playing at home, the Packers should have a much better defensive effort than San Diego in shutting down Adrian Peterson.”
O’Brien is not a huge fan of the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers, losers of six in a row, play at Seattle in the Monday night game. O’Brien suggested LVSC send out an opening line of Seattle minus 13. Instead, LVSC sent out minus 10, which is where the line was on Monday.
“I’d be surprised if the line closes 10,” O’Brien said. “The 49ers are just awful. When it comes to game day, the public is going to lay it.”