Opening Line Report
VegasInsider.com
Pete Rozelle must be rolling in his grave with five Week 12 double-digit favorites. Forget about this on any given Sunday nonsense.
The New England Patriots could become just the sixth NFL team in the last 27 years to be favored by more than 20 points Sunday night if Donovan McNabb isn’t able to start for Philadelphia.
Mike Seba, senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, said the Eagles would be 22-point road underdogs if A.J. Feeley starts for McNabb, who injured his ankle and thumb last Sunday.
“The Patriots remind me of a great college team that just dominates,” Seba said.
New England has covered all but one of its games this year. The Patriots are averaging 41.1 points per game, ahead of pace to set the record for most points in a season.
The Dallas Cowboys opened 14-point favorites hosting the New York Jets on Thanksgiving. The line might have opened higher, Seba indicated, if the Jets didn’t upset Pittsburgh last week.
Pittsburgh is a whooping 16-point home ‘chalk’ against Miami in the Monday night matchup. The Steelers haven’t been more than a two-touchdown favorite during the past 10 years.
The oddsmaker opened the Miami-Pittsburgh total as high as 43 ½, setting up a ‘dog and ‘under’ parlay situation. However, by Monday afternoon the total had been bet down to 41½.
Miami has lost five of its 10 games by a field goal.
“The Steelers are very good, but I don’t think they’re the kind of team that you can feel comfortable laying a big number with,” Seba said.
Seeing New England, Dallas and Pittsburgh as double-digit favorites isn’t surprising. It’s not often you find Arizona laying 10 1/2, though. But that’s what the Cardinals are giving up to San Francisco. The last time Arizona was this large of a favorite was last year’s opener against these same 49ers.
The 49ers haven’t scored more than 17 points since Week 1 when they defeated the Cardinals, 20-17, as a three-point home favorite.
“You never get any money on the 49ers unless you inflate their line,” Seba said. “I could see it getting to 11.”
Cleveland is a favorite for the fifth time in its last six games. The Browns are minus 3 ½ at home against Houston, off a big victory against New Orleans. Seba and his fellow oddsmakers at Las Vegas Sports Consultants recommended an opener of Browns minus 4½.
“In hindsight four would have been a better number,” Seba said. “If you can get a 3½ against a bad defense you should definitely look at doing it.”
The Browns rank last in total defense, yielding 406.3 yards per game, and also are last in scoring defense, giving up an average of 29.4 points per game.
Seba is high on the Jacksonville Jaguars. LVSC’s send-out number on the Buffalo-Jacksonville matchup was Jaguars minus nine. Bookmakers had Jacksonville 7½-point favorites on Monday.
"Jacksonville could be the second-best team in the AFC right now,” Seba said. “Look at how Pittsburgh just played and Indianapolis has multiple injuries.”
Indianapolis opened minus 13 ½ on the road Thursday against Atlanta. Despite the Colts missing several key players, including star pass rusher Dwight Freeney and probably Marvin Harrison again, Seba expects money to come on Indy.
“I don’t mind needing Atlanta in this spot,” he said. “It’s asking quite a bit for the Colts to cover a big number considering how beat up they are. The wheels are coming off a bit.”
Kansas City is minus 5½ against Oakland. This is a dead number lodged in below a touchdown but above a field goal. The Raiders have blown five fourth-quarter leads. They have lost in their last five visits to Arrowhead Stadium, but are 3-1-1 against the spread in these contests. The Raiders, in fact, have lost by an average of only 2.7 points during their past four games in Kansas City.
“The Raiders aren’t a bad team,” Seba said. “They just can’t make a play when they need to.”
This year you can say that about many teams in the NFL. There are some very strong teams and some very weak ones. Not everybody is in that 7-9 to 9-7 range like in previous seasons. Parity may not be dead. But this year it’s definitely been comatose.