DIRECT FROM VEGAS
NICK BOGDANOVICH
OPENING WEEK COLLEGES GO UP AND SHARPS ARE ALREADY PLOTTING
Some of the offshore sportsbooks posted their first week college football numbers this week. Las Vegas tends to limit exposure by waiting until closer to kickoff to put up their numbers. Any early numbers will have low limits anyway until everyone gets a feel for the board. I can tell you that many local sharps were already plotting moves based on the numbers they're seeing. If they're not doing that, they're talking about games of interest that could trigger plays in the following weeks.
I've been listening in on these conversations. Here are a few of the key games of interest going that first weekend:
SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 1ST
Iowa (-11) at Northern Illinois (played at Soldier Field in Chicago)
Many sharps are wondering whether or not the Hawkeyes will bounce back this year. They were just 1-10 ATS last season before covering their bowl game against Texas. If the program is on the decline, then this line is way too high. But, the head coach has a lot of respect...and the MAC hasn't been world beaters lately. The early word has sharps thinking about the double digit dog. Everyone will be watching the new Iowa quarterback closely to get a sense of what Big Ten play is going to look like. Iowa has become a popular darkhorse pick because they don't have either Ohio State or Michigan on the schedule. Last year the team lost to Northwestern, Indiana, and Minnesota, so that may not matter!
Georgia Tech at Notre Dame (-3)
The early "marquee matchup" line that came out on this game at the Hilton was much higher. Many sharps loaded up on Georgia Tech at those higher spreads. If Vegas opens this game at ND -3 whenever the lines come up...all of those guys will be buying back some to shoot at the middle. It's just too good having a 3 involved in a hedge play like that. For the most part, the sharps are expecting a big decline for the Irish this year. LSU was a popular sharp play in the bowl game last year. And that was with Brady Quinn. If the new talent gets off to a slow start, Notre Dame will be a go-against team for about a month and a half from the Wise Guys. The pubic may be slow to catch on. Be sure you watch this game to evaluate the Irish.
Missouri (-4.5) at Illinois (played in St. Louis)
Illinois played a couple of great games last year, coming very close to upsetting both Ohio State and Wisconsin. They had a bunch of other horrible games though. And head coach Ron Zook is one of those guys who underachieves when you need him most. Still, the public think of Illinois as a Big Ten patsy. There's a chance they'll be much better than that this season. This early meeting against a Big 12 contender will let us know where the Illini stand. This relatively low early line suggests that the oddsmakers are aware that the sharps want to bet Illinois. Based on last season's won-lost records, Missouri would have been a bigger favorite than this.
Wake Forest at Boston College (-6.5)
Wake Forest won the ACC last year. Boston College is a popular darkhorse pick to win it this year. The mainstream media keeps talking about Florida State. If Bobby Bowden can't get things turned around, that division of the ACC is likely to go to BC. You can see that the oddsmakers offshore were expecting sharp action on Boston College. How often does a conference champ open its next season as a touchdown underdog? This is line is so high that I wouldn't be surprised to see some flyers on Wake Forest come game day. They've got a good history as an underdog. BC's got a new coach. An interesting test for both teams.
Oklahoma State at Georgia (-7)
I'm looking forward to this one. It could be wide open and high scoring. Oklahoma State has a lot of talent on offense, but very little defense. They do have what it takes to spring a road upset here. The Cowboys are on my watch list this year as underdogs. I'm very interested to see how they handle this early season challenge. Georgia wants to get back into the title picture in the SEC after a disappointing 2006. You know, there aren't a lot of great TV games that first weekend. But, this is one of many that will keep my attention through the course of the day.
Tennessee at California (-4.5)
I've heard all sorts of extremes on this one. Some thing Cal will be out for revenge after getting embarrassed last year...and will win a blowout. They do have a strong home field under this head coach. Others think the SEC is much tougher than the Pac 10, and that Tennessee is a steal at anything more than a field goal. I expect this national TV game to get a lot of betting action here in Vegas. There will be a lot of money on both sides. Me? I may end up passing the game and watching. I respect Cal at home, and I respect the toughness of the SEC as underdogs! Ask Ohio State about Florida.
MONDAY NIGHT SEPTEMBER 3RD
Florida State (-1.5) at Clemson
This is where we get our first look at the "new" Florida State. The Seminoles replaced both coordinators, and are supposedly making one last push for a national title before Bobby Bowden gets too old to coach. Some would say he's been too old for five years now. I'm always skeptical about preseason hype...particularly about public teams. I'm very interested to see how the Seminoles start the year. Clemson is rebuilding, particularly on offense, and may not be a great test. Frankly, if the preseason hype is right, this line is too low. The oddsmakers are telling you they don't believe much of the hype!
SEPTEMBER COLLEGE FOOTBALL EARLY RECOMMENDATIONS......
By: Michael Alexander
You know that College Football is right around the corner when you start to read in the paper about who the preseason #1 is as well as when all of the football annual reports start to hit the street. You also start to see the early lines published on, what the experts, list as some of the top games of the season.
I decided to take a look at these self proposed "big games" and give all of my readers an idea of who might be the side to play on if considering a wager. Keep in mind that these are early selections and other factors could change my recommendation, but for now these are the best early opportunities on the board.
September 1st
Georgia Tech at Notre Dame (-7.5) -- Recommendation: Take Georgia Tech with the points as Tech is a perfect 3-0 ATS their L3 meetings.
Tennessee at California (-5.5) -- Recommendation: Take California minus the points at they are 6-1 as a favorite of less than 17 points w/ revenge.
September 8th
Miami at Oklahoma (-7) -- Recommendation: Take Miami plus the points as the Hurricanes are 3-0 ATS in their last 3 versus the Sooners.
Virginia Tech at LSU (-10.5) -- Recommendation: Take LSU minus the points (assuming they beat Mississippi State the previous week) as the Tiger are 43-5-2 off of a SU away win against a conference opponent.
September 15th
Notre Dame at Michigan (-9) -- Recommendation: Take Notre Dame plus the points as the favorite in this series is 1-10 ATS.
Tennessee at Florida (-6) -- Recommendation: Take Florida minus the points (assuming Tennessee won both SU and ATS) as Tennessee is only 1-4 off a SU and ATS win versus a non conference opponent.
USC (-17.5) at Nebraska -- Recommendation: Take USC minus the points at they are 6-1 ATS as less than 20 point favorites against non conference opponents.
September 20th
Texas A&M at Miami (-6) -- Recommendation: Take Miami minus the points if you think that Miami will win the game SU as Texas A&M is 1-30 ATS when they lose SU on the road.
September 22nd
Georgia at Alabama (-2.5) -- Recommendation: Take Georgia plus the points as the Bulldogs are 3-1 ATS in their L3 versus the Tide.
There you have it, some big games during the month of September that should allow you to grab the cash.
www.sportsaudioshows.com
DIRECT FROM VEGAS
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
YOU MIGHT BE SURPRISED AT HOW ODDSMAKERS PREPARE FOR COLLEGE FOOTBALL
If you're an avid college football wagerer, you're already getting ready for the season. Opening lines are available in the first week games already. And, some marquee matchups throughout the season have already been on the board for a few weeks at the Hilton here in Las Vegas.
Here's a list of what the typical sharp handicapper does to prepare for the season:
* Review last season's power ratings and performances
* Buy up respected preseason newsstand publications to get trustworthy information about returning starters and coaching changes
* Adjust last year's numbers based on significant changes
* Map out the 2007 schedule to find possible lookahead or letdown spots, and to make an early projection for a victory total that can be compared to "regular season win" propositions.
* Monitor reports from August practices about key personnel (still a bit too early for that).
I said in the headline that you might be surprised at how oddsmakers prepare for the season. I'm not talking about myself now. I always believed I was much better prepared than my competition was for college football. From what I've seen and heard, this is how the current crop of oddsmakers prepares:
*Grab last year's final power ratings and throw them on a table.
*Buy up respected preseason newsstand publications and throw them in a corner (maybe after reading about one or two of the guy's favorite teams from his younger days).
*Ask a few people what they think will be different in the coming season.
*Post early numbers and let the money put the line in the right place.
It's always amazing how different reality can be from what everyone is imagining. You often hear that Las Vegas oddsmakers are the top sports experts in the nation. They supposedly know everything there is to know about everything. They've got state-of-the-art- computers that play the games out to give them the right numbers. They've got contacts all over the country. Sportsbooks clean up because the oddsmakers just can't be beaten!
That's the story anyway. The reality is this:
*Oddsmakers are more worried about the betting than the teams themselves. If everyone's going to bet on Notre Dame, the oddsmakers don't care how good or bad Notre Dame really is. They've got to find a number that balances the action as best as possible.
*Oddsmakers study past betting histories rather than team histories. They really are experts at this in my opinion. Sometimes their expertise blinds them though. I think that happened with the early Hilton numbers this year. There's such a history of people betting on Notre Dame that those early marquee matchup numbers came out way too high. The sharps pounded Notre Dame opponents out of the gate. Maybe they should have read one of those magazines they threw on the table to use as a coaster for coffee cups!
*Oddsmakers individually are terrified of their own opinions. They want to hear what the centralized line places are posting, and they want to make sure all the other stores are in line. I was known as a "maverick" oddsmaker because I wouldn't do it this way. That's how I made my reputation, bucking the corporate fear and lack of confidence. One reason they don't do much research on the teams is that they wouldn't use the research anyway. A whole flock of birds doesn't have to be smart...they just have to know who to follow.
It all adds up to a "groupthink" about which way the money is going to go rather than actual expertise about college football teams themselves. If you ever hear oddsmakers on radio shows, or see them quoted in newspapers talking about teams...you can tell they don't know more than anyone else. They often know less than the hosts of the shows or the callers. But, they do have legitimate insights about how money hits the board through the week and on game day. That's enough to get by.
The good news for you is that this creates some openings for handicappers to exploit. All the research you do in the summer DOES pay off because some of the lines fail to reflect the reality on the field. In fact, you can make the case that many college football lines don't reflect the reality. Why is that?
Because many games see the money split evenly, with sharps on one side, and the less informed public on the other. Think about that for a second. You might think that a late-week line is "unbeatable" because Vegas has had all week to get things right. But, if DUMB PUBLIC MONEY is half the equation, then Vegas has the split action they desire...but the number is wrong. The number should be about 2-3 points in the direction of the sharps...but the public has mistakenly lined up on the wrong side. The research you've done about the teams will help you see this, and you'll bet on the correct team. The expertise that the oddsmakers have about betting patterns has enabled them to protect the house and collect the vigorish. They're happy too. In fact, they're happier than the sharps because the oddsmakers have guaranteed a profit while the sharps still have to go out and win the game!
The public loses. Many years they lose big. This keeps casinos in business, and it keeps sharp wagerers in business. The important thing for you to remember is that the oddsmakers in Las Vegas now aren't any smarter than you when it comes to analyzing football. They're focused on analyzing the money. As long as you know your football, you'll be able to pick winners on a consistent basis.
So, DO YOUR HOMEWORK NOW! Even though early numbers are up, the public hasn't started betting them yet. Once that money comes in, we'll see some movement in efforts to balance the financial scales. This will allow you to cherry-pick soft spots all over the card. There will be edges in a few weeks that don't even exist now. True sharps already have positions at the numbers that first went up. They're lying in wait now for any additional edges to exploit. If you want to win, you've got to play and think like a sharp. And, you've got to lose the attitude that oddsmakers are unbeatable geniuses. Seriously, if you talked football with one over dinner one night you wouldn't think that at all!