Outside the Top 25: Bear market
By JULIAN DICKINSON
Covers.com
Like the saying goes, “sometimes you eat the bear; sometimes the bear eats you.”
Last week, I felt like I’d been slathered in honey and tied up in the middle of Yellowstone Park.
Everything in the football universe seemed to unravel like a pigskin supernova and there’s almost no explanation for any of it. What was up with Florida State coughing up five turnovers and getting beaten by Miami at home? How in the name of Howard’s Rock was Clemson able to pile on 70 points against Central Michigan after scoring only 26 in the previous two weeks combined? Utah State nearly won in Nevada for crying out loud.
It’s a crazy world out there. I’m going out to buy some bear spray.
Read on with extreme caution.
Pitt at Louisville (-10 ½)
Is there anyone out there who is still waiting for Louisville to pull it together? Last week’s game in Connecticut didn’t prove much, considering the 17-21 loss was played in a virtual hurricane, but to me, it says this team isn’t just experiencing growing pains – it’s painfully obvious now that Louisville is just a runt this year. It’s never going to grow into the Big East goliath that can compete with the best in the country and even against a sub-.500 team like Pitt, I wouldn’t want to lay points on Louisville. The team hasn’t covered a spread at home all year and the Panthers, despite their offensive problems, have a tough defense that could keep Brian Brohm and Co. in check.
North Carolina at Wake Forest (-5 ½)
I’ve been talking up Wake Forest in this column almost every week and it might seem strange to go against them at home when they’re facing a 2-5 team, but keep in mind that North Carolina is one of the most rapidly improving teams in the country under head coach Butch Davis. Give a coach like that a bye week and you are likely to see those little problems that have been plaguing the Tar Heels (like special teams and ball security) sort themselves out in a hurry.
A sub-par fourth quarter was all that kept North Carolina from beating South Carolina outright in their last game. Wake Forest is a solid team that has all the tools to beat almost any ACC team, but the Tar Heels have shown an ability to hang around with almost every team they’ve faced, losing only one game this year by more than a touchdown. They’ve also covered against Wake in three straight meetings.
Michigan State at Iowa (+3)
The Spartans are scary. Just ask Ohio State. The game wasn’t nearly as close as the 24-17 final score made it appear, but even when the Spartans were down 24-0 in the second half on Saturday, they showed the toughness and fight to get back in a game that was slipping away. That’s a 180-degree turnaround for a program that was notorious for squandering opportunities under its former coaching regime. Under Mark Dantonio you almost believe this team can win even if Iowa shuts down Javon Ringer and the MSU running game (which could likely happen). I think they’re scrappy enough to turn around a 20-year losing streak at Kinnick Stadium and hey who knows, maybe they can even cover as road favorites for the first time in Big Ten play since a blowout in Illinois in 2005.
Miami-Ohio at Vanderbilt (-14)
For the last two weeks, Vanderbilt has looked as good as any SEC team. They narrowly missed a win over Georgia two weeks ago and made up for it last week with a road win over No. 6 South Carolina. Over those last two games the Vandy defense has allowed a total of only 26 points which is even better than their season average of 18 points per game. Against a Miami offense that is putting up an average of just 20 points against MAC competition, the Commodores should have no trouble holding them out of the end zone. The only question is if they can get their own offense in sync – and if they can get back on track after celebrating the school’s biggest victory in 70 years. Might want to look at the under in this one.
Houston at UTEP (-3 ½)
You like offense? You’ll love this one. You’d have to be brave to take a chance with this 74-point over/under, but one thing is for sure – you can expect more fireworks than you saw in last year’s 34-17 Houston win.
Neither team has much on the defensive side of the ball, but when Houston travels south to El Paso, you have to like the Cougars’ chances. With games against Oregon and Alabama under its belt, Houston has played the tougher schedule and when you look at incredibly balanced offensive numbers (295 yards per game passing, 225 on the ground) this club will be able to dictate the pace of the game and pick apart the UTEP defense.