Welcome back everyone to what we hope will be another great MLB season... despite a postseason that cut into our profits a bit, we still ended the 2002 campaign up +151.85 Units on the strength of a 672-582 record...
We will be posting all of our plays for week one of the season in this forum, so we hope that you will follow along!
3/30 MLB:
Texas @ Anaheim 8:05 PM EST
Anaheim -155 over Texas (4 Units)
Anaheim/Texas Under 10 (1.5 Units)
The Anaheim Angels attempt to start off their 2003 season in similar fashion to their stunning 2002 year, as they face the Texas Rangers and unlikely "ace" Ismael Valdes... then again, when your pitching is as weak as it has been with the Texas staff over the past few seasons, Valdes is probably as best a bet as any other, as Valdes is actually a solid pitcher, but has been the victim of bad luck throughout his career... unfortunately, Valdes has once again placed himself with a team whose relief corps will likely fail to garner him many wins throughout the year once again...
A great example of Valdes' poor luck comes in his early performances last year against Anaheim, as Valdes pitched at least seven innings in his first three starts against the Angels, and allowed just five runs in 22.1 innings (for a 2.01 ERA), yet Texas lost two of the three contests due to lack of run support and/or bullpen breakdown... as the year progressed, however, it seems that Anaheim was able to figure out their 2001 teammate, as Valdes' last two starts against Anaheim resulted in a whopping 11 earned runs in just 15 innings for a miserable 6.60 ERA... and with Ismael having pitched only 9.2 innings this spring over three starts (allowing six runs for a 5.59 ERA), we have a feeling Valdes is more likely to resemble his late-season form against the Angels than his impressive early-season run...
The Angels have loved nothing more than seeing John Lackey to the mound at home, as Anaheim is a whopping 11-1 at home when Lackey has taken the hill, with the sole loss coming by a 2-1 score against the Red Sox... in 46.2 innings at home last season, Lackey allowed just 14 runs, for a stellar 2.70 ERA... and while Lackey did allow six runs in twelve innings against the Rangers last season, both of his starts against Texas came away from Anaheim, where the Angels' 68.9 percent winning percentage (combined with Texas' 37 percent road winning percentage) makes this line an absolute bargain, as this line should really be at -200 based on simply home/away winning percentages...
Then again, the odds seem to be even more stacked in favor of the Angels, when you consider that Anaheim has not only won six of their last eight games against the Rangers, but are a whopping 6-1 in their last seven home games against ARod and the Texas crew... Considering that the defending World series winner has won their first home game the next season in five consecutive seasons, we're not too concerned about Anaheim's potential of choking this contest... Texas has scored just 4.1 runs per game in their seven games in Anaheim, and against John Lackey and the stellar Anaheim bullpen, we highly doubt that Texas will put more than three runs across the plate in this contest...
Anaheim hasn't exactly been tearing it up this preseason on the offensive end themselves, scoring six runs or less in each of their last eleven spring training games heading up to this contest... therefore, we will also place a wager on the Under in this contest, as the opening line of 10 runs seems a little high for this opening night battle... take the Angels and the Under for a very solid double play...
FINAL PREDICTION: ANAHEIM 5, TEXAS 3