KEY SELECTIONS:
4* Ohio St over ILLINOIS - LY OSU QB Steve Bellasari was suspended prior to
the game and OSU was forced to start untested soph’s Scott McMullen & Craig
Krenzel who combined to hit 15 of 36 with 2 int’s. UI’s defense & special
teams scored 2 TD’s as the Illini won 34-22 as a 1’ pt road fav with OSU
having a 20-18 FD edge. That win knocked OSU out of the Big 10 Title chase
& buoyed the Illini to the Big 10 Title. UI is 13-4 ATS the L/17 in this
series. The road team is 9-3 ATS the L/12. UI is 7-3 ATS their L/10 home
finales. OSU is in a sandwich as they are off a nail biter vs Purdue & have
hated rival Michigan on deck. They are 1-5 ATS (but 4-2 SU) prior to
playing the Maize & Blue. The Bucks have never played on the Illini’s
FieldTurf surface but are dangerous on artificial surfaces as they have
gone 23-9 ATS on them since ‘90. They have struggled out of The Horseshoe
this season going 0-4 ATS & avg just 19.8 ppg. OSU super frosh Maurice
Clarett returned briefly LW before re-injuring his shoulder & is now ? for
the rest of the season. QB Craig Krenzel, who threw the game winning TD
pass on 4th down LW, is 12-1 SU as a starter & ranks #8 in the NCAA in pass
efficiency. OSU’s defense, which is #2 in our rankings, has allowed just 16
pts in their last 14Q’s which is also right around the time that
multi-talented WR Chris Gamble made his debut at CB. Turner went to QB Jon
Beutjer again LW & he’s hit for 309 ypg (62%) with a 16-7 ratio as a
starter. The Illini are 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS in his starts & avg 34 ppg & 501
ypg. Illini WR Brandon Lloyd left LW’s game in the 2H with a hip injury but
said he’ll do whatever it takes to play in this one. The Illini defense has
allowed 224 ypg (5.0) rushing in Big 10 play. The Illini need to win out to
go to a bowl while OSU needs to win out to play for the National Title.
FORECAST: Ohio St 31 ILLINOIS 13
3* Penn St over INDIANA - We won a 3* Key Selection & a 4* Late Phone Play
on Penn St in LY’s 28-14 win as 2’ pt favs despite missing QB Zack Mills.
PSU’s last trip to Indiana resulted in a 4* Top Weekly Late Phone Selection
Winner for us as the Lions beat IU 27-24 as 1’ pt favs in the RCA Dome.
Indy is 2-10 ATS when playing in a home finale that is NOT vs their rival
Pur. Overall they are 2-17-3 ATS the week prior to facing the Boilers. PSU
has gone 6-1 ATS on the Big 10 road the L/2Y. Indy is down to just 43
scholarship players due to injuries, dismissals and academics. The Hoosier
defense is allowing 229 ypg (5.4) rushing in Big 10 play. Paterno went to
the unusual step of promoting Larry Johnson for the Heisman. PSU’s defense
has improved as the season has gone on as they’ve allowed just 1 offensive
TD in the L/3 Big 10 games. Their DL has 3 future NFL-ers on it with DE
Michael Haynes (12.5 sks) & Jimmy Kennedy (14 tfl’s) being among the top
prospects. LW Virginia had (-13) yds rushing at the half. Simply put Indy
doesn’t have the talent or the depth to keep it close vs the powerful
Lions. FORECAST: Penn St 42 INDIANA 6
3* RICE (+) over Hawaii - Each team runs an offense that is the polar
opposite of the other but Rice is 3-0 both SU & ATS in the L/3Y. In the
last meeting here in 2000 Rice won 38-13 in a game where UH turned the ball
over FIVE times. LY they won 27-24 as a 3’ pt AD despite being outgained by
a 438-352 yard margin. Rice is a super 15-3 ATS as a HD under HC Hatfield.
UH did have extra time with the bye however to prepare for the Rice option.
Hawaii has already wrapped up a bowl bid and has 3 home games on deck and
Rice is in their home and season finale. Rice almost upset Fresno here this
year and UH’s last two road games were misleading as they were outplayed by
both UTEP and Fresno yet escaped with wins. FORECAST: RICE (+) 30 Hawaii 27
OTHER SELECTIONS:
2* VIRGINIA (+) over NC State - The dog is 10-3 ATS in the L/13 meetings
while NCSt is 7-3 ATS the L/10. LY the Wolfpack crushed the Cavs 24-0,
their 1st ACC shutout since ‘90. The Cavs are 5-1 ATS as a HD under Groh.
Their last shutout loss was vs GT in 2000 and UVA made up for it LY winning
39-38 as 14’ pt dogs. The Wolfpack does have FSU at home on deck & may be
looking ahead. NCSt has dropped their L/2 & have basically eliminated
themselves from the ACC Title chase after starting the year 9-0. RB TA
McLendon did not return for the 2H LW vs MD after injuring his shoulder.
Also inj’d are WR Jerricho Cotchery (ankle) & OG Shane Riggs (knee). Check
the Northcoast Full Service Line for their status this the week. QB Philip
Rivers is avg a solid 247 ypg (63%) with an 18-9 ratio & ranks #6
nationally in pass efficiency. The Cavs were held to just 30 yds rushing LW
in their loss vs Penn St. UVA’s rush offense is ranked #98 only gaining 3.3
ypc & the Cavs rank a woeful #111 in rush defense, as they allow 4.5 ypc.
Their passing game is much better & Matt Schaub ranks #10 nationally in
pass efficiency as he is avg 235 ypg (70%!) with a solid 21-6 ratio. NCSt
has the offensive (#38) & defensive (#36) edges over the Cavs (#50, #76).
Virginia ran into a Top 20 talent in Penn St that was highly motivated and
they should fare better this week at home. FORECAST: VIRGINIA (+) 28 NC
State 27
2* Texas over TEXAS TECH - UT was firing on all cylinders LY when they met
up with TT as they rushed for 209 yds & passed for 224 yds in their 42-7
crushing of the Raiders in Austin. Since Tech pulled back-to-back upsets
under Spike Dykes in ‘97 & ‘98 the Horns have handed them 3 SU & ATS losses
in a row under Mike Leach. UT’s defense has handled the spread well holding
the Raiders to an avg of 10.3 ppg in those 3. The last time these two met
in Lubbock we used a 3* Key Selection in Power Sweep on UT as they
outrushed Tech 233-17 in a 29-17 win. TT HC Leach, prior to LY’s game,
complained that his QB Kliff Kingsbury deserved more recognition than Simms
did based on production. Both performed well in LY’s game. TT is an
incredible 15-1 ATS in their L/16 home finales. TT is 10-5 ATS as a HD
since ‘94. QB Kingsbury has avg 362 ypg (69%) with a 35-10 ratio but has
‘struggled’ vs Top 25 teams hitting for 288 ypg (60%) with a 6-5 ratio vs
teams in LW’s Top 25. He now takes on our #3 defense which is the most
difficult assignment he’s faced since the opener vs Ohio St. The Tech
defense hasn’t performed up to expectations this year at just #64. With
their games remaining vs the South’s Top 2 (UT & OU) on deck TT is actually
in control of their own destiny in the Big 12 Title race. UT RB Cedric
Benson has 1084 yds (4.3). WR Roy Williams’ hamstring has healed the L/2 &
he has 21 rec’s (15.9). Overall UT has our #7 offense. FORECAST: Texas 30
TEXAS TECH 17
2* TULSA (+) San Jose St - The home team is 3-0 SU and ATS in this brief
series with the average cover by 23.6 ppg. Tulsa is 4-1 ATS in their L/5
home finales. LY the Spartans gained 464 yds (11.3 ypc) on the ground and
outgained TU 746-367 to win 63-27 as a 7’ pt HF. Tulsa is just 1-6-1 ATS in
their L/8 in the role of HD. Tulsa has covered 3 of their L/4 WAC games as
of late. SJS is seldom an AF but they are 5-2 ATS in their L/7 in this role
including their 34-23 win at SMU as a 7 pt AF in what was a misleading
final. SJS kept their unlikely bowl hopes alive and must win here and at
home vs Fresno St next week to have a chance at the Silicon Valley Classic.
Tulsa was at Fresno and playing without QB Tyler Gooch. They lost 31-12 but
managed to cover as a 28 pt AD. James Kilian improved to 2-0 ATS as a
starter. SJS RB Lamar Ferguson is the NCAA’s smallest player, but he has
been huge as of late keeping defenses honest with 85 ypg (7.9) in the last
four games. We side with Tulsa to pull the surprise at home. FORECAST:
TULSA (+) 24 San Jose St 23
UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK:
Over the past 6 years this play has hit 49-27 64%! Last year the Underdog
Play of the Week went 9-4 69% including 5 OUTRIGHT UPSET WINNERS and this
year we've gone 7-4 64% with THREE OUTRIGHT UPSET WINNERS!!! Here is this
week's Underdog Play and remember, it does count as a Key Selection:
WASHINGTON +9 over OREGON
Wash won LW for us as our 2002 5* College Game of the Year, a 41-29
OUTRIGHT UPSET WINNER (we thought the Huskies should have been favored) as
a 6 pt HD. Oregon has taken 3 of the L/4 SU in this series while the
visitor is a surprising 4-2 ATS the L/6. UO has not fared well as HF’s
going 4-10 ATS their L/14 in that role. Wash holds the ranking adv both on
off (#16 vs #32) and def (#41 vs #47). Oregon’s secondary has been torched
in Pac 10 play, taking out the Stanford game, they have allowed an avg of
393 yds passing. Wash QB Cody Pickett is no slouch in the air game as he
became the Huskies career passing leader LW and has thrown for an avg of
350 ypg (60%) with a 21-11 ratio this year. Their running game has only avg
74 ypg at a poor 2.2 clip. The Ducks are led by RB Onterrio Smith who has
1079 yds (4.8). He has been slowed by knee & toe inj the past couple of
weeks. QB Jason Fife has thrown for 240 ypg (56%) with a 21-6 ratio. Oregon
could only manage 252 yds vs Wash St LW. Autzen has not been that huge of
an advantage for the Ducks TY as they have already lost to Ariz St & USC
here in high scoring affairs so we take the points here with a Husky team
that could again pull another outright upset and keep their bowl hopes
alive. FORECAST: Washington 34 OREGON 31
Thanks Pete for both, this is HUGE! 
MC
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