Power Sweep College Key Selections
KEY SELECTIONS:
4* Kansas St over MISSOURI - MU is 0-7 SU and 2-5 ATS the L/7 vs Kansas St
but both of those ATS wins were after KSU beat Nebraska and we won with
plays on MU each time. LY MU susp’d their top pass rusher, DL Antwaun
Bynum, & 2 P’s for this game, and KSU reaped the benefit of bad MU punts
all day pulling out a 24-3 win as 20 pt AF’s. KSU is off an absolutely
dominating win over their rival (outrushed NU by a 415-97 margin!), while
MU off their huge upset of Texas A&M. MU is 5-1 in the state of MO this
year. The most interesting matchup is KSU CB Terence Newman (5-11 185, 4.25
40!) vs MU WR Justin Gage (6-4 210). LY Newman held Gage to just 3 rec’s &
44 yds. With KSU’s easy win over Nebraska LW, they are the NCAA’s top team
according to our Power Poll. They have our #4 defense & #5 offense. KSU QB
Ell Roberson ran for a school QB record 228 yds vs NU & went over the
century mark with 1084 yds (6.4). RB Darren Sproles is the Cats’ leading
rusher with 1231 yds (6.4) & has run for a school record seven 100 yd games
in a row. MU QB Brad Smith needs just 1 rushing yd to become the NCAA’s 2nd
ever player with 2,000 yds passing & 1000 yds rushing in a season. MU’s D
ranks #74. MU was fortunate to only lose to Colo and Iowa St by 7 pts each
despite being grossly outplayed and KSU usually does not allow foes to stay
close. MU would go to a bowl with a win over the Cats but run into the
nation’s hottest team at the wrong time. FORECAST: Kansas St 47 MISSOURI 20
3* PURDUE over Indiana - The weather was a huge factor in LY’s battle for
the Old Oaken Bucket as the game was played in a driving rain storm which
made Purdue basically abandon their quick cutting running game (-8 yds
rushing on just 18 att). PU gave PS#11QB Kyle Orton his first collegiate
start in the game and he hit 31 of 62 for 263 yds. The game was IU QB
Antwaan Randle-El’s final Big 10 tilt and he got his only win vs IU’s
biggest rival. Purdue has outscored IU 186-64 under Tiller. IU is playing
their 7th game in a row & with just 38 scholarship players available. The
wear & tear of the long season has taken its toll as they’ve lost their L/5
in a row SU & ATS. DiNardo has also treated the last few weeks as bowl-like
practices with scout team players seeing more action to prep the team for
next year. DiNardo went back to QB Tommy Jones LW & he hit 22-39 for 180
yds with a 2-3 ratio vs PSU. We went against IU LW winning a 4* Late Phone
Selection & 3* Key Selection on PSU as they dominated the line of scrimmage
on both sides as expected. UI has allowed 252 ypg (5.9) rushing in Big 10
play. Purdue is the best team in the country with a losing record. They’ve
lost to 4 of the BCS’s Top 10 teams by a combined 16 pts. They’ve outgained
those foes on avg 384-319 with their -7 TO margin being the difference.
Purdue is off a MAJORLY misleading final LW as they had a 343-59 yd edge at
the half yet only led 24-17. Purdue is 13-6-2 ATS as a HF vs conf foes.
Tiller went back to a healthier Brandon Kirsch at QB LW. He adds a more
mobile dimension to the QB position which he has run for 387 yds (5.8)
including 125 LW vs MSU. Kyle Orton did come off the bench to throw the
game winning 40 yd TD pass vs MSU on 4th & 8 after Kirsch had the wind
knocked out of him. Tiller did say that LW’s effort was Kirsch’s worst yet
and seeing Orton start here would not be a surprise. Purdue has major
advantages in both offense (#12-#84) & defense (#28-101). Tiller has the
tools to extract revenge for LY and has shown no mercy vs his overmatched
state rival with the prospect of extending the Big 10’s second longest bowl
streak on the line (5 yrs). FORECAST: PURDUE 48 Indiana 10
3* OREGON ST over Oregon - The Civil War had avg’d 60 ppg the prev 5 yrs
but LY’s game was played in heavy rain and 20-30 mph winds and although the
Beavers held the ydg adv 359-209 the Ducks took adv of a 70 yd PR & 80 yd
drive for TD’s to pull out a 17-14 non-covering win. UO is now 16-5-1 SU
the L/22 but OSU is 11-3 ATS the L/14 in this series. The home team has won
5 in a row SU but is 2-3 ATS. The Beavers are 14-1 ATS as HF’s since ‘98.
LY it was Joey Harrington vs Jonathan Smith at QB but this year it is Jason
Fife vs Derek Anderson (238 ypg, 46% 19-12). Fife has struggled the past
couple of wks vs Wash & Wash St throwing for 181 ypg (41%) and a 6-3 ratio
while Anderson has struggled vs Pac 10 teams throwing for 203 ypg (38%)
with a 4-11 ratio. Against non-conf teams he had 300 ypg (63%) and a 15-1
ratio. A big key will be the running game where OSU RB Steven Jackson has
1503 (5.7) yds against an Oregon team that has lost its leading rusher
PS#22 Onterrio Smith (1079 4.8) to knee surgery indefinitely. LW they used
PS#177 Ryan Shaw (42 yds 6.0) and PS#375 Terrence Whitehead (34, 4.3) in
his place. The Ducks are reeling losing 4 of their L/5 games as their
secondary has been smoked for an avg of 400 ypg. The Beavers are a better
team at home and avg 460 yds on offense there compared to 408 overall. They
hold the ranking edges on offense (#30 vs #45) and defense (#12 vs #56).
OSU has revenge on its mind and is much tougher at home. FORECAST: OREGON
ST 33 Oregon 20
OTHER SELECTIONS:
2* Maryland over VIRGINIA - The visitor is now 12-6 ATS the L/18 while the
Terps are 18-8 ATS the last 26 including 4 straight covers. LY MD got their
1st SU win over UVA since ‘91, 41-21, outgaining the Cavs 480-345 in a wild
contest (see Past History). MD is 9-1 ATS as an AF since ‘97. Virg is 5-1
ATS their L/6 home finales. UVA is 7-2 ATS as a HD the L/3Y, including LW’s
upset vs NCSt as a 7 pt dog as the Northcoast Sportsline Complimentary
Underdog Play of the Week making them bowl eligible. UVA ranks #103
nationally in total D, yielding 436 ypg. The Cavs did lose TB Alvin Pearman
prior to LW for the yr with a knee inj. QB Matt Schaub is avg 228 ypg (69%)
with a solid 23-6 ratio & is ranked #9 nationally in pass eff. The Terps
continue to be solid as they’re outscoring their opp 34.2-14.8 ppg and have
our #23 ranked offense & #27 ranked defense (Cavs #47 off & #66 def). LW
the Terps beat Clem for the 1st time in Death Valley S/’85. MD is 8-0 SU
and 7-1 ATS since we used Florida St against them as our first Sept 5* in
their 37-10 loss. Never step in front of a stampeding Turtle and the Terps
are the far better team and show it here. FORECAST: Maryland 34 VIRGINIA 17
2* Usc over UCLA - We used USC +5 as our Underdog Play of the Week in Power
Sweep and they delivered the outright upset 27-0 LY. The Trojans only had
276 yds of offense but held the Foster-less Bruins to 114 total yds. The
underdog is now 11-2 ATS while the home team 13-5 ATS in this series. The
Bruins had won 8 in a row SU but have now dropped 3 straight. UCLA is 5-2
as a HD under Toledo. The Bruins are off a bye and have one again next week
before taking on Pac 10 leader Wash St. They are being led by a couple of
true Fr at QB in PS#17 Drew Olson & PS#19 Matt Moore who have taken over
since Cory Paus was inj’d in the Cal game. UCLA has avg 177 ypg pass (50%)
without Paus. They are relying on the run behind a rFr PS#15 Tyler Ebell
(858 yds 4.6 ypc) who took over the starting job due to inj and has run for
over 100 yds in each of the 6 games. USC is led by Heisman hopeful Carson
Palmer who has thrown for 296 ypg (62%) with a 24-8 ratio. Their running
game has struggled most of the year but has shown signs of life with Justin
Fargas (PS#1) at TB as he has 307 yds rush (5.0) in the past 3 games he has
started. USC holds the ranking edges offensively (#3 vs #34) and
defensively (#6 vs #15). In the 3 games since Paus was inj’d, the Bruins
have taken on 2 weak teams (Ariz & Stan) and vs a decent team they were
outgained by Wash 498-316 yet still won 34-24. This Trojan defense doesn’t
let anyone through and will be the toughest test for the young QB’s, both
whom are expected to get playing time, and even though USC has ND on deck
they have been preaching the “one game at a time” mentality and have won &
covered 4 straight wks. FORECAST: Usc 24 UCLA 13
2* Illinois over NORTHWESTERN - Illinois & their fans celebrated a share of
the Big 10 Title on Turkey Day LY with their non-covering home win 34-28
over the gritty, injury smitten (down to 4th string TB) Cats as teams
combined to amass 1,037 yds. The visitor is 11-3 ATS the L/14 & the dog is
8-4 ATS the L/12 in this instate rivalry. The last time they met in
Evanston we used a 4* Late Phone Selection on NW as they destroyed the
Illini 61-23 as 7’ road dogs with the Illini’s Dustin Ward (20-37 for 246
yds with a 2-1 ratio) getting the start for an injured Kurt Kittner. NW is
5-1 ATS after a week off. UI is off three tough games in a row including
LW’s heartbreaking OT loss to the Buckeyes. The Illini are 14-5-1 ATS on
grass (2-0 TY). They have been more efficient with Jon Beutjer at QB and he
has avg 223 ypg (59%) with an 18-10 ratio. RB Antoineo Harris has run for
1152 yds (4.9) and he should have a big day here against a NW defense that
is allowing 323 ypg rush (5.5). For the Cats mobility is an important key
for their QB and Brett Basanez who is avg 204 ypg (58%) with a 6-4 ratio
had been slowed by a leg injury but should be closer to 100% with the off
week. They also have a 1,000 yd rusher in RB Jason Wright (1115, 5.6).
Illinois has big advantage on both sides of the ball (#13 vs #57 off, #52
vs #115 def). Illinois has now won FIVE straight ATS this year and beat a
similar Indy team by 31 in that stretch. FORECAST: Illinois 44 NORTHWESTERN 27
UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK:
Over the past 6 years this play has hit 50-27 65%! Last year the Underdog
Play of the Week went 9-4 69% including 5 OUTRIGHT UPSET WINNERS and this
year we've gone 8-4 67% with FOUR OUTRIGHT UPSET WINNERS including
Washington crushing Oregon St last week 42-14 as 9 point dogs!!! Here is
this week's Underdog Play and remember, it does count as a Key Selection:
S CAROLINA +6' over CLEMSON
The visiting team is 17-4 ATS the L/21 meetings (11-2 ATS the L/13) with 4
of the L/6 contests being decided by 9 pts or less. LY S Car was very
banged up and emotionally down off a blowout home loss to Florida 54-17. S
Car QB Phil Petty played with a separated shoulder, and the Gamecocks
gutted out a 20-15 SU home win, but didn’t cover as 5’ pt HF’s which ended
a Tiger 4 game SU winning streak in the series. CU QB Charlie Whitehurst
had avg’d 347 ypg in his first 2 starts with an 8-0 ratio (vs NC and Duke),
but came back to earth LW facing the tough MD defense and threw for 130 yds
(46%) with a 0-1 ratio. S Car is a young team that has been devastated by
inj this season. The team has avg’d 252 ypg & 7.8 ppg in their 4 game
losing streak. QB Corey Jenkins was moved to FS LW, but still saw some
action on offense as Dondrial Pinkins started his first game in The Swamp
hitting just 8 of 17 for 74 yds, but was the team’s top rusher with 84 yds
(6.5). The WR corps has been devastated by inj the last few weeks which has
led to the struggling passing game. S Car needs to win this game to avoid a
losing season and become bowl eligible. Clemson has already clinched bowl
eligibility. FORECAST: S Carolina 24 CLEMSON 23