Power Sweep College selections
NEW ORLEANS BOWL: December 17th @8pm ET on ESPN2
Cincinnati (7-6) At New Orleans, LA N Texas (7-5)
POWER PLAYS PROJECTION
RUSH PASS POINTS TO's SP TEAMS A.O.R.
Cincinnati: 105---230---23---2.4------0---91.7
N Texas: 195-----30---14---3.1---ÃÃÃ---86.8
Tuesday, December 10, 2002
North Texas is 0-4 SU & 2-2 ATS vs current CUSA teams since '98, but have
won the L/2 ATS including earlier this year vs TCU, a 16-10 SU loss but ATS
win as 12' pt AD's. Cincinnati beat that same TCU team in the season opener
36-26 as a 3' pt HF. The Bearcats are 2-0 SU & ATS vs current SBC teams
since '98. These two teams played 16 straight years when both were members
of the Missouri Valley Conference (last met 1973). NT leads the series
8-7-1 SU. The last meeting was a 52-3 blowout by UC. This will be the
Bearcats' third straight bowl game which is a school record and they are
1-2 SU and ATS in the post season under HC Rick Minter. The Bearcats have
been to the Motor City Bowl twice where they lost SU & ATS to MAC teams the
last 2 years, and the Humanitarian Bowl where they defeated Utah St. UC is
really fortunate to be here after a 2-5 SU start and their players and
coaches have made that known. They have 13 senior starters compared to just
8 for NT. NT should however should have the home edge as they are here for
the second straight year and their fans travelled very well last year to
New Orleans. UC, on the other hand, had a very difficult time getting
people to attend the Motor City Bowl which is much closer to home than this
one. Each of their appearances in that game established a new low in
attendance for that bowl. UC also had just 10 days to sell tickets and Bowl
packages to their fans which is the most compact time frame in the NCAA
this year. The Bearcats were just 2-5 SU vs their 7 bowl eligible foes but
they were 5-2 ATS. They were the only CUSA team to defeat both TCU and
Louisville who are both going to bigger bowls. Four of their 5 SU losses to
the bowl eligible teams were by a combined 17 points. They also almost
defeated Ohio St but they dropped 4 straight passes in the endzone to end
that game. UC was 5-1 ATS on the road in 2002 with 4 straight covers
including their upset at Louisville which delivered a Thursday Night ESPN
Play Winner.
The Bearcats come in with our #46 rated offense and our #43 rated D. The
offense did struggle at times in 2002 but it is a very potent unit that had
4 players on offense make either first or second team CUSA led by soph QB
Gino Guidugli. Guidugli is avg 255 ypg (55%) with a 21-16 ratio. He
struggled at midseason but in their final four Guidugli had 259 ypg (54%)
and a super 10-3 ratio vs a much weaker slate of opposing defenses. In fact
UC faced their weakest opposing defenses in three of their L/5 games. RB
DeMarco McCleskey has 1276 yds (4.4) and 15 TD's on the ground. He is the
CUSA's career TD leader. UC has the most talented WR corps in CUSA as WR
LaDaris Vann has 70 rec (12.1) and has recorded at least 1 reception in 45
straight games, a UC record. WR Jon Olinger has great size at 6-3 225 and
solid speed. He was the top deep threat with 20.1 ypc and 7 TD's and could
create a big problem for the NT CB's who avg just 5-11 184. The UC OL paved
the way for 3.5 ypc rush and allowed 24 sacks which are very average
numbers. UC did gain 409 yds on a very tough TCU defense that held NT to
just 219 yds. UC is +4 in TO ratio and avg 404 ypg total offense while
their D allows 318 ypg. UC allowed 381 ypg in their first five but just 253
ypg total defense in their next 7 before allowing 458 yds to E Carolina in
their finale. The DL allowed 200 ypg rush (3.9) in their L/2 games but had
allowed just 66 ypg (2.1) in their previous 4 games. They will be facing a
huge size deficit here as NT avg's 294 lbs per man on their OL with 3
senior starters while UC's DL also has 3 senior starters but avg's just 247
lbs per man, and their top backup is just 205 lbs. DE Antwan Peek was the
#1 tackler with 90 and also had 6.5 sacks and 15.5 tfl. The LB's accounted
for nearly half of their 33 team sacks but their tackle counts were low, as
UC blitzes a lot leaving their DB's in man coverage. Their experienced DB's
are #18 in our pass efficiency D ratings allowing just 184 ypg (52%) and a
12-16 ratio. CB Blue Adams led the team with 6 int's, two of which he
returned for TD's and SS Doug Monaghan was the #2 tackler with 88 despite
missing their finale due to injury.
When NT made the trip here LY all the talk was about how they were only the
3rd team in history to play in a bowl with a losing record. NT is 7-5 SU
this year with 6 wins vs SBC foes. The Eagles were 0-5 SU and 3-2 ATS vs
non-conf teams but all 3 wins were as DD dogs at the start of the year.
They did cover against Texas losing 27-0 as a 35 pt AD. Last year they made
the trip to NO but forgot to show up for the game as they were crushed
45-20 by Colo St as an 11 pt dog. Of all the bowl teams LY, they returned
the most starters with 19, so this team does have bowl experience. NT is a
team known for their defense but has seen their offense come to life
scoring 30+ pts in 3 of their final 4 games. The offense, which lost
starting QB Scott Hall after the 1st game, struggled under rFr QB Andrew
Smith. Smith did have 206 yds in the season finale at Middle Tenn. He is
avg just 90 ypg (47%) with a 7-8 ratio. RB Kevin Galbreath had 1168 yds
(4.8) but most of it came late vs SBC foes with 792 in the last 6 games. #2
TB Patrick Cobbs (PS#108) has 732 yds (4.7). The defense is led by the SBC
Player of the Year, DL Brandon Kennedy. Kennedy led the SBC with 24 tfl and
had 9 sks. He and 5 other defenders were voted to the 1st Tm SBC, while 3
others made the 2nd Tm. They have our #36 defense which allowed 14.4 ppg
with 43 sks. The Eagles gave up 28 or more points just once (vs Alabama).
They held TCU, a team that avg 31 ppg, to their lowest output of the year
(16). They shutout an Idaho offense that had avg'd 21 ppg in 3 games vs the
Pac 10 this year. The Eagles' defense allows 122 ypg on the ground and 167
ypg through the air (#44 pass D rankings). Surprisingly despite 25
takeaways by their aggressive defense, the Eagles are just +1 in TO's, due
to the inexperience of their freshman QB.
NT comes in with our #61 rated special teams unit led by 2nd Tm SBC P Brad
Kadlubar. He is avg 42.3 ypp, with 24 punts inside the 20 with only 9 TB's
and 1 blocked. The Eagles' leading KR & PR is soph WR Ja'Mel Branch who is
avg just 18.7 yds on KR's and 7.8 yds on PR's. True frosh K Nick Bazaldua
is 22 of 28 on XP and 9 of 14 on FG with a long of 44 but has had 2 kicks
blocked. The special teams defense allows just 18.3 yds on KR's but 11.3
yds on PR's. UC is rated #102 as they allow 22.6 yds per KR and 11.5 yds
per PR. True frosh P Chet Ervin is avg 37.7 ypp with a net of just 30.8. He
has had 2 blocked while UC has blocked one. Former Lou Groza Award Winner
Jonathan Ruffin was a solid 17-20, including 3 of 5 from 40+ with a long of
49. KR Tedric Harwell emerged down the stretch with 23.9 yds per KR while
PR Tye Keith is avg 8.2. NT only rates a slight edge here as their
opponents were weaker and UC has the edge in FG's which are not accounted
for in our overall rankings.
NT may have a winning record but they have been outgained by 10 ypg this
year while UC has outgained their foes by 91 ypg. NT has the stronger
record but 6 wins came vs weak SBC foes. UC has the edge of having just
played 11 days ago so they should show no rust while NT has been off almost
2 weeks longer than UC. Teams with less than 20 days between their last
game and their bowl are 7-2-1 ATS. Teams that lost in the same bowl the
previous year were 5-2 ATS in that bowl the next year from 1996-2000 but
were just 1-4 ATS last year. There has been no number posted on this game
as of yet but we will call for the Bearcats to win by 10 and let the
linesmaker decide who we like.
FORECAST: Cincinnati 27 N Texas 17 RATING: NO PLAY
GMAC BOWL: December 18th @ 8pm ET on ESPN2
Louisville (7-5) At Mobile, AL Marshall (10-2)
POWER PLAYS PROJECTION
RUSH PASS POINTS TO's SP TEAMS A.O.R.
Louisville 115---210---27---2.5---ÃÃÃÃÃÃ---89.4
Marshall 70---330---29---2.1-----------0---80.6
Tuesday, December 10, 2002
For the 2nd straight year the GMAC Bowl has tried to set up a future NFL
QB duel. Last year QB Byron Leftwich outlasted ECU's David Garrard (now a
Jacksonville Jaguar) in the highest scoring bowl ever, 64-61 in 2 OT's.
Another QB battle will likely take place here. These teams have had just
one recent meeting and that came in the 1998 Motor City Bowl with Marshall
prevailing 48-29 as a 3 pt dog. It is disappointing for the Cards to be
here as they were touted as a dark horse National Title contender with a
Heisman hopeful at QB prior to the season. The Cards have played their last
2 in the Liberty Bowl in Memphis, however, and their players are excited
about the opportunity to play here because they have 13 players from
Alabama. Their fan following should remain strong as they have taken 55,000
fans over the last 2 years to the Liberty Bowl. HC John L. Smith is 1-4 SU
& ATS in his career in bowls. He has turned UL into a perennial power in
CUSA and this is their 5th bowl in the 5 years since he took over. UL had
only played in 5 bowls in their history prior to Smith taking over. This
will be the third bowl game for both of these experienced senior QB's and
Dave Ragone is 1-1 both SU & ATS while Leftwich is 2-0 SU & ATS with both
of his victories coming vs CUSA foes. UL did not fare well vs tougher foes
in 2002 as they were just 2-4 both SU & ATS vs bowl caliber teams
(including KY) while posting 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS mark vs foes with losing
records. They lost by a 27-24 margin vs bowl eligible foes. UL does have a
surface edge as the Herd are just 2-7 ATS their last 9 on grass. Both teams
have 10 senior starters. The Cards are 13-8 ATS in their last 21 as a
favorite. Marshall is 1-6 ATS as a dog since 2000 in the regular season,
but are 3-1 ATS as a bowl dog the last 5 years. Marshall is also coming off
an emotional victory in the MAC Championship game "taking the ring back"
from Toledo who beat them last year. Louisville is coming off a
disappointing loss to Houston, which cost them a share of the CUSA Title.
Louisville comes in with our #84 rated offense and our #41 rated D. QB
Ragone is avg 224 ypg (55%) with a solid 23-10 ratio. He was the CUSA
Offensive POY for an unprecedented 3rd straight year. Ragone is very crafty
and also had 521 gross rush yds as he is not afraid to take a hit at 6-4,
255. RB Henry Miller is the top rusher with 595 yds (4.3) and 12 TD's. He
was injured down the stretch and avg'd just 14 ypg in their last 3 but
should be 100% for this game. WR Damien Dorsey was the top receiving threat
with 52 grabs (14.5). He was 1st Tm CUSA at WR and as a PR. TE Ronnie Ghent
was Ragone's favorite target prior to being injured in their 6th game and
there is a chance he may return here. Despite missing the last 6 games
Ghent was a 1st Tm CUSA selection giving UL that honor at the TE position
for the 6th straight year. The OL battled injuries and inexperience all
year allowing 43 sacks while paving the way for just 3.1 ypc. Versus their
six bowl eligible foes they allowed 27 of those 43 sacks and paved the way
for just 1.6 ypc. Four of those opponents, however, have Top 45 defenses
while Marshall's just #79. The Cards' defense is a very solid unit that was
very consistent in 2002. DB Curry Burns and LB Rod Day each topped 100
tackles and both were 2nd Tm CUSA. DE Dewayne White was named to the 1st Tm
CUSA defense and led the team with 9.5 sacks while the other DE, Devon
Thomas, added 7 sacks. The Cards front four allowed just 114 ypg rushing
(2.8) while the team recorded 33 sacks. Their DB's are #34 in our pass
efficiency D ratings allowing 203 ypg (48%) but with a 17-8 ratio. In
2000-2001 the Cards had an NCAA best 96 sacks and their 44 interceptions
were #2 in the NCAA over that span. They were +11 TO's in 2000 and +14 in
2001. This year they are -13 in TO ratio but the defense forced 7 TO's in
their last 3 games after forcing just 8 in their first 9. The Cards avg'd
339 ypg total offense in 2002 while their D surrendered 318 ypg. As
mentioned, the offense struggled vs tougher opponents and interestingly
they had an avg yardage edge of 412-293 vs the weaker opponents while the
bowl caliber teams outgained them 342-267.
This is Marshall's 6th straight bowl. They have gone every year since
moving back to the IA level in '97. They are 4-1 SU & ATS and the only loss
was in their 1st bowl back in '97, so they have won 4 straight including 3
wins against current CUSA teams in those bowls. They also have won their
only regular season game against a current CUSA team, defeating Army 35-25
as a 5 pt AD in '97. Marshall comes in with our #18 rated offense and our
#79 rated defense. The Herd offense is led by Leftwich who was a Heisman
candidate and will probably be a 1st Round DC next year. He is avg 365 ypg
(a super 69%) with a solid 26-9 ratio. He has five 400+ yd games including
404 yds in the MAC Championship game vs Toledo. He sat down in the 2H of a
lot of games this year or his numbers would be even higher. He has been
slowed with a leg injury, but missed only one game and one other start
because of it. In the last few games he has been hobbled and operated from
the shotgun all game. He led the comeback victory against Toledo throwing
the game winner with :40 left to win 49-45 as a 4 pt HF. He was voted the
MAC MVP for the 2nd year in a row. He has 3 main receivers, each with over
850 yds receiving. They are Denero Marriott with 76 rec (11.3), Josh Davis
with 73 rec (16.0) and Darius Watts with 68 rec (14.7). Marshall's running
game has been up and down all year. They avg 128 ypg, but in their two
games vs bowl teams this year they avg'd just 40 ypg. The running game has
been mostly split between 2 RB's: Brandon Carey has 642 yds (4.6) with two
100 yd games and Franklin Wallace has 539 yds (4.7) also with two 100 yd
games. The Herd's offensive line has also played very well this year giving
up just 18 sacks on 531 pass attempts. Marshall's defense has improved as
the year has gone on. They have done very well vs the pass giving up just
158 ypg and only allowing 48% completions. The Herd's weakness however has
been against the run where they have allowed 182 ypg (4.4).
The Cards rate a MASSIVE edge on special teams at #4 in our ratings while
Marshall is back at #81. In 2002 the Cards have blocked an NCAA best 11
kicks in 12 games including 9 punts. KR Broderick Clark was honored as the
CUSA Special Teams POY avg an NCAA best 31.8 yds per KR. Clark matched the
school and league marks with a pair of return TD's, including a CUSA record
100 yd return vs Kentucky. PR Damien Dorsey was 1st Tm CUSA and was #9 in
the NCAA with 15.4 yds per PR including a TD. K Nate Smith was 12 of 19 on
FG's with a long of 52, however he was just 4 of 9 from 40+. Smith also
doubled as the P after replacing Wade Tydlacka and avg'd 36.5 yds per boot
while dropping 16 inside the 20. Tydlacka still handles the KO's and UL is
allowing a solid 19.2 yds per KR. The Cards avg'd just 32.1 net yds per
punt but that number actually improved down the stretch when Smith was
inserted as the P and they reverted to the old school rugby style of
punting, virtually eliminating the chance of a big return. Marshall's
Curtis Head handles both the kicking and the punting. He hit 15 of 20 FG's
with a long of 53, but was just 5 of 9 from 40+ and 44 of 48 on XP's. Head
is avg 41.9 ypp with 11 inside the 20 and only 1 TB. The MU kick coverage
teams are giving up only 19 yds per KR but 14.2 per PR. The Herd has just 1
punt block and gave up 1 PR for a TD. The return team is avg only 15.9 yds
on KR's and a poor 5.2 yds on PR's.
Marshall has less time off since their last game was played on Dec 7th and
UL played last on Nov 30th. MU also has the edge of being familiar with the
bowl having played here last year. They also have done better in bowl games
as it is their chance in the national spotlight and L'ville has to be
disappointed to end up here after starting off the year with much higher
hopes. Marshall has the edge on offense with the much stronger O-line but
the Cards have the defensive edge as well as the special teams edge. UL has
not played well vs bowl caliber teams this year while Marshall's D has
gotten stronger down the stretch. This is an important game for Marshall’s
program and the MAC has done very well in recent bowls and we side with the
motivated Herd who have the intangibles on their side as long as they are a
dog (line not known at presstime).
FORECAST: Marshall 31 Louisville 30 RATING: 2H MARSHALL (if dog)