NFL KEY SELECTIONS:
4* TENNESSEE over Pittsburgh - This is another old AFC Central matchup that
has been broken up with the NFL’s realignment. The home team in the series
is 17-8-1 ATS. The Steelers won LY’s meeting here 34-24 as 2 pt AD’s.
Tennessee had a 21-20 FD edge & 405-377 yd edge but QB Steve McNair threw
an INT that was ret’d 45 yds for a TD. The Steelers tied LW 34-34 at home
when WR Plaxico Burress was stopped on the half yd line. LW was the 1st
time that an NFL game ended in a tie since 11/23/1997. Teams that were in
OT games the previous week are 1-9 ATS TY as favorites. The Steelers are
7-3-1 as an AF while Tennessee is 9-3 ATS the last 12 as HD’s. Tennessee
has gotten themselves back on the right track with 4 straight SU wins & are
on top of the AFC South right now. Go with the Titans team that has also
been getting stronger the past number of weeks. FORECAST: TENNESSEE 24
Pittsburgh 20
3* Carolina over TAMPA BAY - TB won the 1st meeting 12-9 SU as 7’ AF’s with
each team featuring backup QB’s due to injuries. The Bucs held 14-9 FD &
226-113 yd edges against a Panther offense with rookie QB Randy Fasani at
the helm. The Bucs are 0-4 at home after a bye 3-7 ATS vs division teams
after a bye & are 3-10 ATS overall. In the 1st 5 games of the year the Buc
offense only scored 5 TD’s but against the #31 ranked Vikings defense they
scored 5. Tampa has only been a DD Fav once since 1976 & that was in 2000
when they beat Dallas 27-7 as 10 pt AD’s. The Bucs are 3-6 ATS as 7’ pt
favorites or more while the Panthers are 8-2 ATS as DD dogs the last 10.
Realistically we like to side with teams that won for us the previous week
and last week the Panthers were down 27-24 and on the last play QB Peete
threw a pass that was deflected, went forward 10 yds and the officials
ruled it a fumble giving the Saints the cover. We still side with the
Panthers. FORECAST: Carolina 12 (+) TAMPA BAY 15
OTHER SELECTIONS:
2* New Orleans over ATLANTA - In the 1st meeting between these teams
Michael Vick led the Falcons to a 37-35 win in the Superdome as a 3’ pt AD.
Atlanta outFD’d New Orleans 28-22 & outgained them 446-351 as Vick rushed
for 91 yds with another 195 yds passing (67%). The Falcons win brought the
visitors record in this series to 16-7 ATS. In the 2nd game of a 3 week
turnaround series the team that won the 1st game as a dog is 4-9 ATS at
home in the 2nd. The Falcons went into Pittsburgh LW & came out with a
34-34 OT tie as 5 pt AD’s. The Saints did get CB Dale Carter back from
suspension LW & HC Jim Haslett was ecstatic as his return allows him to
finally implement the defensive plan from the offseason. They were also
without DT Grady Jackson due to a hamstring injury so call a Northcoast
Full Service line to check his status. The Saints were very fortunate to
get the cover LW on a poor officiating call on the last play of the game
but it should serve as a wake up call against the Falcons. FORECAST: New
Orleans 24 ATLANTA 23
2* SEATTLE over Denver - This is a short week for Denver who is off LW’s
Monday Night game but HC Mike Shanahan is 8-3 ATS after a Monday Night
game. They are going to miss traveling to Seattle as they are 9-4 ATS in
the Northwest. Seattle has been struggling both with the run & against it
this year. If you take out the 2 prime time games TY against the 49ers &
Vikings they have only managed 66 ypg rushing (2.9 ypc) but have allowed
172 ypg rushing (4.9 ypc). Denver on the road TY has 144 ypg rush (4.6 ypc)
but has allowed 96 ypg rushing (3.9 ypc). This is a letdown spot for Denver
off a Monday Night game against Oakland though & LW Seattle delivered as a
2* selection here. QB Matt Hasselbeck has thrown for 524 yds (68%) with a
1-0 ratio in his 2 starts & we like the Seahawks again here. FORECAST:
SEATTLE 21 Denver 20
OTHER GAMES:
Green Bay 24 MINNESOTA 20 - The Packers are 14-29 ATS the last 43 on turf.
In domes they are 3-10 ATS in the regular season since 1997 with the 3 wins
being vs Minnesota. The dog in this series has won the last 5 straight.
Minnesota is an impressive 16-5 as a HD since 1990 & is 8-4 as a HD vs
grass teams since 1995. In the dome games vs the Saints & Lions TY the
Packers outFD’d them 40-30 & outgained them 799-628 but were outscored by a
combined 66-57. Minnesota has hosted a pair of grass teams in the Panthers
& Giants & were outFD’d 23-15 & outgained 415-303 while being outscored by
a avg 24-17 margin. LW RB Ahman Green sustained a concussion & his status
is unknown. Vikings QB Daunte Culpepper was benched after struggling for 91
yds passing (45%) in favor of Todd Bouman 85 yds (50%). Brett Favre
struggles on turf & if he does the Packers staff may pull him due to his
knee. If Culpepper gets the start he will be plenty fired up as now he has
to reestablish to the team & the fans in Minnesota that he is the franchise
QB & we lean with the Vikings.
Cleveland 17 CINCINNATI 14 - In the 1st game in this series Cleveland beat
Cincinnati 20-7 as a 4 pt HF. The Bengals outFD’d the Browns 28-15 &
outgained them 357-265 as the Bengals started Gus Frerotte & the Browns
started Kelly Holcomb. The Bengals have been outFD’d an avg 21-16 &
outgained an avg 379-255 with the final score being 33-11 at home. This is
the first time since the Browns returned that they will be in the away fav
role. The Browns defense at home shows that they allow an avg 22 FD’s, 396
yds & 23 ppg. On the road the defense tightens to 17 FD’s & 291 yds allowed
with a 20 ppg allowed. The Bengals go limping into this game as they lost
DT Oliver Gibson (#1 DL w/ 29 tkls & a defensive captain) & CB Ligarius
Jennings who was a key special tms member. The Browns have used their 1st
bye week in the middle of the season to get their battered defense
healthier which should help immensely as Cincy QB Jon Kitna has thrown for
728 yds (74%) with a 8-3 ratio the last 3 wks.
INDIANAPOLIS 20 Dallas 17 - These teams have not met since ‘99 when Indy
won 34-24 as 3 pt HF’s. The Colts had a 23-18 FD edge & a 419-232 yd edge.
The Colts are 7-4 SU & ATS at home vs NFC teams & 1-5 ATS TY as a favorite.
Dallas is 3-7 ATS in domes winning the last 2 ATS. In Dallas’ last 8 road
games they have been outscored 152-72 & been outgained an avg 304-285 over
that span. The Dallas defense has done a solid job the last 4 weeks holding
tms to 276 yds offense with 178 ypg passing (53%) with a 1-4 TD/INT ratio &
48 total pts allowed. The Colts defense by comparison has allowed 327 ypg
with 190 ypg passing (58%) with a 6-1 TD/INT ratio and 90 points.
Ultimately though this will come down to Peyton Manning who just decimated
the Titans & Eagle defenses passing for 646 yds (75%) with a 5-1 ratio vs
rookie Chad Hutchinson who has 353 yds (54%) with a 1-0 ratio. The Cowboy
O-line has been beat up TY forcing the team to field 8 different fronts in
their 9 games so LW’s bye can only help. The Cowboy defense is solid enough
(#5 overall) to contain the Colts 13th overall offense to keep them in the
game & the Cowboy offense should do enough to not lose it.
KANSAS CITY 27 Buffalo 26 - The Chiefs won for us a couple weeks ago
against the Jets as a 3* Late Phone Play & LW they won again for us as
against the 49ers. They return home where they have been outFD’d 24-22 &
outgained 443-353 while outscoring opponents 29-25 on avg. Buffalo is off a
bye & the dog is 10-4 ATS when they are off a bye & the Bills are 4-0 ATS
themselves in that role. Bills QB Drew Bledsoe has thrown for 2802 yds
(64%) with a 17-6 ratio. He gets to face off against the Chiefs #32 pass
defense which has allowed 2848 yds (68%) with a 17-10 ratio. On the other
side of the field Trent Green has thrown for 2057 yds (63%) with a 16-10
ratio. He goes up against the Bills defense which has allowed 2144 passing
yds (59%) with a 19-5 ratio with 4 of the TD’s coming against Miami’s Ray
Lucas making his 1st start since 1999. We hate to go against a Chiefs team
that has done well for us TY but we are wary of them in the HF role & we
side with the dog here.
MIAMI 23 Baltimore 10 - Miami is off LW’s Sunday Night game so those
results are unavailable. The last time they met was in the playoffs LY with
Baltimore winning 20-3 as 3 pt AD’s. The Ravens had a 20-9 FD edge &
347-151 yd edge holding the Dolphins to 46 yds rushing (3.1 ypc). The
Ravens defense has been better on the road than at home TY allowing an avg
17 FD’s, 314 yds & 18 ppg. At home they have acquiesced 21 FD’s, 347 yds &
23 ppg. HC Brian Billick said LW that he expects Ray Lewis to play in some
fashion for this game. The Ravens are also 20-8 ATS as AD’s. The Dolphins
are happy to be home after a 2 game road trip as they are 9-2-1 ATS the
last 12 as a HF. TY at home the Dolphins have outFD’d opponents an avg
21-15 & outgained them 347-246 with an avg score of 29-15. Either way if
the Dolphins won or lost LW they are in serious need of a home win if for
nothing more than team confidence. The Dolphins are too talented to go
against vs a team with 17 rookies or 2nd year players.
NY GIANTS 17 Washington 16 - LY these teams split the series SU & ATS but
the Giants held a combined FD edge of 46-26 & outgained the Redskins
697-534. The Giants are 6-3 SU & ATS at home vs the Redskins. The Redskins
are 7-3 ATS the last 10 as AD’s. The last 2 weeks with HC Jim Fassel
calling the offensive plays the Giants have scored more points (51) than
they did in the previous 5 games (50). TW the Giants are going to face DC
Marvin Lewis whose Ravens team dismantled them in Super Bowl XXXV 34-7 as a
3 pt fav. The last 4 weeks the Redskins defense has allowed an avg of 284
yds defense with a 94 yd rushing avg (3.7 ypc). The Giants defense at home
is allowing 266 yds offense with an avg 86 yds rushing (4.0 ypc). Redskins
RB Stephen Davis’ status is unknown due to a knee injury but with these two
defenses playing well this should be a low scoring affair enabling
Washington to escape with the points.
PHILADELPHIA 24 Arizona 10 - The Eagles have had serious problems TY in
that they have played down to their opponents level of competition. They
have done this in their last 4 ATS losses against the Texans, Jaguars,
Bears & Colts. The Eagles have outFD’d them an avg 23-16 & outgained them
369-304 but have been outscored 93-92. Against the Redskins, Cowboys, Bucs
& Giants they have outFD’d them an avg 21-16 outgained them 397-258 &
outscored them 118-33. Arizona is very beat up offensively as the have lost
WR’s Martay Jenkins & Bryan Gilmore for the year & David Boston possibly as
well due to a knee injury. QB Jake Plummer is also injured with a sore
shoulder which may account for his throwing for 1849 yds (53%) with a 7-11
ratio earning him a QB rating of 64.4. The Cardinals are a dangerous AD at
8-2-1 ATS. HC Andy Reid said LW that his team needs to do a better job of
executing the plays & he needs to do a better job of calling them. After
losing to the Colts at home LW the Eagles should do just that here.
San Francisco 27 SAN DIEGO 24 - The last time these teams met was in 2000
with San Francisco winning 45-17 as 2 pt AF’s. The 49ers held a 385-303 yd
edge & capitalized on 5 Charger TO’s. The Chargers have not done well at
home against NFC teams (not including Seattle) as they are 3-14-1 ATS
against them. The 49ers are 1-10 ATS on the road against teams with a
winning record with the only win against Oakland TY. There are 4 common
opponents in the Broncos, Rams, Raiders & Chiefs. The 49ers have outFD’d
them an avg 23-17 & outgained them 351-277 while outscoring them an avg
23-18. The Chargers have been outFD’d 22-20 & outgained 413-342 while being
outscored 27-24. The 49ers feature the 12th best offense against the #21
defense in the Chargers but the 49ers defense is #12 overall & they will go
against the #18 offense. We like the 49ers to take the road win here.
DETROIT 27 NY Jets 24 - The Jets were on the primetime stage LW on Sunday
Night & those results are unavailable as we went to press. The last time
these teams met was late 2000 when Detroit won 10-7 as a 6’ pt AD. The
Lions held a 16-12 FD edge & a 288-240 ydg edge. The Lions are 3-6 ATS vs
AFC teams at home but are 9-2 ATS in the role of HD’s. The Jets are 1-5-1
ATS as an AF vs NFC teams the last 7 & are 7-12-1 as an AF since 1992. At
home the Lions have been outFD’d an avg of 20-15 & outgained 312-283 but
have outscored foes 23-22. The Jets on the road have been outFD’d an avg
20-17 & outgained 351-303 on the road & outscored 25-22. In the Lions last
HG they were outFD’d 17-8 & outgained 225-148 going against Dallas’s #5
defense but they should have an easier time TW against the Jets #30
defense. The Lions are 3-1 SU & ATS in the new stadium & we look for them
to improve that record TW.
Jacksonville 17 HOUSTON 14 - In the 1st game between them, HOU went into
Jacksonville & won SU 21-19 as 11 pt AD’s. The Jags had 18-12 FD & 290-242
yd edges but the OL struggled vs the Texan D gave up a season high 5 sacks.
JAX is 1-6 ATS as an AF losing the L/4 straight. On the road the Jags have
been outFD’d an avg 21-17 & outscored 20-16 but have kept the ydg fairly
even with a slight 343-340 edge. At home the Texans have been outFD’d an
avg 19-15 & outgained 350-253 while being outscored an avg 25-12. The home
crowd edge should keep the Texans in the game enough to escape with the
points.
New England at Oakland - These two last met in LY’s AFC Semi-Finals in New
England with snow& one controversial non-fumble call going NE’s way in a
16-13 win. The Pat’s are in the 3rd of a 3 game road trip while the Raiders
are off LW’s Monday Nighter vs Denver. This is the Sunday Night ESPN Play
on Phil Steele’s PPH. Call on Sunday morning after 11:00 am EST for the
Winner! 1-900-903-9467 just $9.
Chicago at St. Louis - Monday Night. LY this would have been a marquee game
but both teams are below .500. This is the 2nd of 3 Monday Night games for
each team. LW Marshall Faulk went out with an ankle injury and Bears QB
Chris Chandler went out with a neck injury. Who will we choose? Call Monday
Night after 5:00 pm EST for our Monday Night Magic Selection. Don’t Miss Out!
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